Bond James Bond wrote:Also a Romney landslide is hilarious. Unless Obama kills a white woman during the Convention he's got 200+ votes locked up tight.
Europe continues to teeter on the edge of a broader collapse. That could give Romney a landslide. Otherwise, it's hard to fathom how that is going to happen. Nate Silver's model currently gives it a 1% shot, and that feels like a generous nod to modeling uncertainty.
The model that thread is in reference to is an econometric model. Collectively, those give a prediction of a minor Romney victory. This model tends to be on the extreme end of pro-Romney, and even calling its results a "landslide" is dubious.
I agree. I think you're correct (as you've said in other posts) that it's going to be a squeaker either way. Romney just has less margin for error.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Florida: Obama 50-46 among likely voters and 51-42 among registered voters.
If Obama wins Florida it's over.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
How strange that you never post any polls, the vast majority up to this point in fact, that show Obama up. Why might that be?
in my opinion, Gallup is the most accurate National Poll that is out there. Gallup now has Obama at 47%, and it now has Romney at 46%. I do think that Obama will win the popular vote, but I don't know about him winning the electoral college. Obama will win the State of California by at least 18%.
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
Brackite wrote:I do think that Obama will win the popular vote, but I don't know about him winning the electoral college. Obama will win the State of California by at least 18%.
You've said this before and I pointed out at the time why that's unlikely. It's actually Romney that is far more likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. You are just having a hard time thinking about the country outside of California. Romney is going to rack up a lot of votes in deep red states.
Brackite wrote:I do think that Obama will win the popular vote, but I don't know about him winning the electoral college. Obama will win the State of California by at least 18%.
You've said this before and I pointed out at the time why that's unlikely. It's actually Romney that is far more likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. You are just having a hard time thinking about the country outside of California. Romney is going to rack up a lot of votes in deep red states.
Are you sure about that??? The Following Post is by Bond from his 2012 Election Thread:
Bond James Bond wrote:http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=336&articleid=20120521_16_A1_Presum328379
Romney ahead of Obama in Oklahoma 62-27. Tossup state?
In more interesting news polls came out today from the U. of Vanderbilt and the U. of Texas for the respective states of Tennessee and Texas. I think both states are Romney but Tennessee polled Romney 47-40 and Texas 46-38. For what it's worth those numbers are much closer than what McCain won by.
McCain in 2008: Tennessee 57-42 Texas 55-44
Texas is the largest Red State there is. Mitt Romney is Not going to win the State of Texas by more than 11%, while Barack Obama is going to win the State of California by more than 18%.
Yes. You need to stop thinking about one or two large states. Add up the population of Georgia, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Alabama, Utah, South Carolina, etc. etc. and you have a lot of people. Just because California is large and Obama is poised to win it by a healthy margin doesn't mean that there isn't a comparable population of Romney voters locked away in solid red states too.
Texas is slowly becoming Democratic because of demographic shifts, by the way.