CNN poll: Romney 53% Obama 45%

[_krose]

I just don't get BC and others' obsession with polls they claim are wrong.

Who cares? We will find out in less than two months if the polls are accurate, and their side can celebrate a satisfying Dewey/Truman moment if they are wrong.

[_palerobber]

bcspace, isn't it a little early to be curling up in the corner, hands over your ears, eyes closed, and steadily rocking?

i mean it may true that Romney's getting his ass kicked at the moment, and that he's never led throughout the entire race, and that he blew his best and perhaps last chance for a game-changing moment at the RNC... but he still has time left, right?

[_palerobber]

What's the current line in Las Vegas?

Intrade is currently giving Obama better than 3:2 odds.

[_EAllusion]

Intrade undervalues Democrats over Republicans consistently. There's a good bit of data on this. It seems the main problem is collective ignorance of information and a large bias towards Republicans using Intrade. If you use Intrade to make money, like I do on occasion, this is wonderful news. You can beat the odds very consistently if you follow the patterns. Obama is a great buy right now, for instance. Obama was a killer buy right before the 2008 election. Not that long ago, Romney was an amazing buy for the primaries. (I made good money on that one.) More sophisticated gambling houses have it about 70/30 Obama. The main forecasting sites have it closer to 80/20.

[_palerobber]

i was very very tempted to buy Romney futures during the primary. as i recall they also had some candidates with realistically zero chance of winning at around 3-5% (some who never even announced they would run), which i was tempted to short. ever try that?

[_moksha]

Intrade undervalues Democrats over Republicans consistently. There's a good bit of data on this. It seems the main problem is collective ignorance of information and a large bias towards Republicans using Intrade.

Excellent point. Vegas is just trying to make a relatively honest buck on the accuracy of their odds. Some of those others may be seeking a cut of some Billionaire's political buy-in. They don't care whether they have Jacks or better showing.

[_bcspace]

No bounce for Obama.

[_krose]

This must be one reason conservatives are so convinced there must be massive, hidden voter fraud perpetrated by Democrats. They don't believe any polls that show a Democrat ahead, so the only thing left to hang onto is cheating.

[_palerobber]

No bounce for Obama.

lol! like i said: eyes closed, hands over ears, repeating to self sub-audibly "Rasmussen - Rasmussen - Rasmussen".

meanwhile, in reality:
Democracy Corps (D), 9/8 - 9/12, Obama +5
FOX News, 9/9 - 9/11, Obama +5
Gallup, (Thursday) 7-Day Tracking, Obama +6
Reuters/Ipsos, 9/7 - 9/10, Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post, 9/7 - 9/9, Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research, 9/7 - 9/9, Obama +6
IBD/CSM/TIPP, 9/4 - 9/9, Obama +2

[_krose]

lol! like i said: eyes closed, hands over ears, repeating to self sub-audibly "Rasmussen - Rasmussen - Rasmussen".

Ha! Reminds me of the end of Prince of Tides.

"Lowenstein..."