Getting Tough on Iran

[_Morley]

I'm just going to go ahead and say what is apparently unthinkable.

Why do we think we have the right to dictate terms to another sovereign nation, and forbid them from acquiring that which we already have in huge numbers (and are the only ones to have actually used them)?

Also, what do we think will happen if they do successfully develop the Bomb? Do we really believe they care so little for their country that they would use it, thus guaranteeing their destruction?

What Iran has learned from watching our interactions with Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Korea, is that joining the nuclear club is one way to be sure the Americans won't invade and engage in some more "regime change." Hell, we already did it to them once, overthrowing their democratically elected government in the 50s.

The US didn't invade during the 1953 coup. And Iran having nuclear capability wouldn't have changed that outcome.

[_Bob Loblaw]

Iran signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and because the IAEA has determined that Iran is in violation of the treaty, the UN can and has authorized enforcement of the treaty. This is not a case of the mean old United States dictating to another country.

[_EAllusion]

Bob -

I think the US is pursuing every item on your list.

In particular, given that Iranian nuclear scientists have developed a curious habit of dying mysteriously, I'm confused as to what you'd need to see to be convinced that this is happening that wouldn't render the action not covert. We appear to be in a cold war with them at the moment.

[_palerobber]

Bob, the IAEA first noted Iran's non-compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003. sanctions were first put in place in 2007 and really tough sanctions weren't put in place until Jun 2010. you seem to think the sanctions regime will never fully work, so aside from covert ops (which are certainly already on-going) what are you suggesting exactly?

by the way, if you want to start a serious discussion about how to resolve the Iran NPT issue, copy-pasting a carefully tailored and truncated political hit piece from National Review Online isn't really the best option.

[_Drifting]

My 'understanding' is that the Iranian nuclear scientists who are dying are doing so because they are proving to be 'difficult' to the regime's wishes or that they have finished their part of the process and are collateral damage in the passion for secrecy.

If it were covert operations they wouldn't kill them, they would be kept alive as proof of the programme. This would be necessary to avoid a future embarrassment along the lines of the Weapons of Mass Destruction debacle in Iraq.

[_krose]

Hell, we already did it to them once, overthrowing their democratically elected government in the 50s.

The US didn't invade during the 1953 coup. And Iran having nuclear capability wouldn't have changed that outcome.

Of course. That was essentially one operative with a genius for fomenting and a butt-load of cash to pay for it.

But our more recent military adventures show much less bellicosity toward countries with nukes.

[_Bob Loblaw]

Of course. That was essentially one guy with a load of cash.

But our more recent military adventures show much less bellicosity toward countries with nukes.

No doubt, but the Iranian regime is just crazy enough to use nukes if they get them. Their president and religious leaders are on record saying they want to destroy Israel and drive all the Jews into the sea. Even if we had to do it unilaterally, I would support any and all efforts to keep them from getting nukes, whether or not you think it's bullying. Ahmedinajad with nukes is a very scary thought.

[_Quasimodo]

Of course. That was essentially one guy with a load of cash.

But our more recent military adventures show much less bellicosity toward countries with nukes.

No doubt, but the Iranian regime is just crazy enough to use nukes if they get them. Their president and religious leaders are on record saying they want to destroy Israel and drive all the Jews into the sea. Even if we had to do it unilaterally, I would support any and all efforts to keep them from getting nukes, whether or not you think it's bullying. Ahmedinajad with nukes is a very scary thought.

It seems the Iranians now have a delivery system.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=287113

[_krose]

No doubt, but the Iranian regime is just crazy enough to use nukes if they get them.

I really doubt that. The leaders of Iran are very conservative and very religious, like some members of our Congress, but they are not insane.

Maybe that's not much of a distinction, ;-) but when it comes right down to it, they have to know that actually using nukes against Israel would guarantee their own destruction. And I'm sure they want to keep their country, as well as their positions at its head.

Ahmedinajad with nukes is a very scary thought.

Well, that's something you will likely never have to worry about. His term will be over long before their nuclear program gets to that point.

[_Bob Loblaw]

I really doubt that. The leaders of Iran are very conservative and very religious, like some members of our Congress, but they are not insane.

I think they're like some Mormon fanatics, like Droopy, who actually believe their country and religion have some sort of divine destiny. It's a huge mistake to assume people will act rationally (see the aforementioned religious right in the Congress).

Maybe that's not much of a distinction, ;-) but when it comes right down to it, they have to know that actually using nukes against Israel would guarantee their own destruction. And I'm sure they want to keep their country, as well as their positions at its head.

Again, you assume that they don't believe in their fundamentalist religion. With true believers, all bets are off. You should know this. You've been a Mormon.

Well, that's something you will likely never have to worry about. His term will be over long before their nuclear program gets to that point.

There are a lot of people like him waiting in the wings. These folks live in a bubble, divorced from reality, so I'm sorry, but I would not take the risk that such people will act rationally. That's too much of a gamble.