Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

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_EAllusion
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _EAllusion »

Kevin Graham wrote:But at this point we're nowhere near a bubble. What we're talking about is a "housing recovery," which would naturally entail an increase in mortgages.


Real estate prices were heavily inflated in 2007/2008, as were overall home ownership rates. Both were way past historical trends. The collapse, while destroying a fortune in paper assests, simply brought the numbers back to more in line with more reasonable expectations. Any recovery that entails recovering what was lost during the collapse is simply re-inflating the bubble. The "real" recovery was supposed to take years precisely because that's how long it should take for non-inflation adjusted prices to rise back up. People will recover what they once had on paper, but not for years.

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Notice that huge spike off the trend? It's not a good thing to get right back to that. It's would be a false recovery in the sense that it likely would represent a speculative bubble that wouldn't be sustainable. Debt service would ultimately outstrip people's capacity to pay, and eventually the house of cards would crash again. Notice that current prices are again following the inflation-adjusted gradual trend, only slightly underperforming it. That's a good thing compared to rapid incline.

Again, why is home ownership so great anyway? Sure, it gives owners an asset one can tap into and thus a form of savings, but if you simply invest the money you save by not paying a mortgage in other areas, you should be able to beat real estate investing. That is, if the government wasn't massively subsidizing home ownership, thus driving down the relative value of renting. Appealing to the investment value of real estate ownership is the route you go for, but you'd be better off with a smart, diversified investment portfolio used with the money saved by renting more cheaply, especially if there weren't things like the mortgage tax credit. So if what you really are saying is that we need to incentive people to invest in real estate because we can't trust them to save otherwise, I don't agree with your paternalistic approach to government.

Home ownership appeals to many American's desire for freedom. Provided you don't belong to a terrible HOA, if you own you have a great deal more freedom to use your residence as you please. The downside to that is more responsibility for upkeep. Lack of that responsibility and more flexibility is the upside to renting. Since I am a home owner, I clearly understand why one would opt for the freedom it provides, but I don't at all see what justification the state has to use soft coercion in the form of economic incentives to pick one over the other. On what basis would making that personal value choice for people be a legitimate function of the state?
_Kevin Graham
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Real estate prices were heavily inflated in 2007/2008, as were overall home ownership rates.

Yes, they were inflated the same way gas prices are artificially inflated today, via oil speculation. You don't seem to account for any of this, but instead just refer to charts showing price inflation happened, and then blame it all on the government for reducing interest rates. Well, rates have been ridiculously low for years now, and yet that hasn't seemed to create another bubble.

The issue here is whether helping more Americans own their first home is going to create another bubble, and the answer is no. If you want to rely on recent history to make your case then you have to understand that the recent bubble was caused by a number of factors, not least of which was real estate speculation which was all the rage during the mid-2000s. It wasn't the government's efforts to get more Americans to own their own homes, which is the subject of this thread.

A new federal report shows that speculative real estate investors played a larger role than originally thought in driving the housing bubble that led to record foreclosures and sent economies plummeting in Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and other states...

More than a third of all U.S. home mortgages granted in 2006 went to people who already owned at least one house, according to the report. In Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, where average home prices more than doubled from 2000 to 2006, investors made up nearly half of all mortgage-backed purchases during the housing bubble. Buyers owning three or more properties represented the fastest-growing segment of homeowners during that time...

In Nevada, which has the nation's highest foreclosure rate, the housing market remains weak, with home prices continuing to fall in the Las Vegas area, where most of the state lives. Home prices were down 7.3 percent in November compared to a year before, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. That means the median price dropped from $134,900 to $125,000 in one year. More than half of all home sales were purchased with cash.


So the increase in the number of first time home owners isn't the primary reason why the housing market crashed. Without the speculators trying to flip homes to make a quick profit, it is entirely possible that there never would have been a bubble at all. The reason home values dropped after 2007 was because the supply overwhelmed demand as millions of people began to default because of fraudulent lending practices. So as long as we correct those problems, I'm saying there is really no reason to believe helping poorer Americans own and build wealth, as opposed to renting and staying in debt, is going to create another bubble. The only people who really benefit from high prices are people like you and I who have their homes paid off. But those trying to get into home ownership? Obviously they'd be better off in a buyer's market.
_cinepro
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _cinepro »

Kevin Graham wrote: So as long as we correct those problems, I'm saying there is really no reason to believe helping poorer Americans own and build wealth, as opposed to renting and staying in debt, is going to create another bubble.


Debt is a result of borrowing money to buy a house, not renting.

And buying a house doesn't automatically help someone "own and build wealth". It has to be the right house, in the right area, at the right time. The market is designed to signal which houses are the right houses in the right area at the right time by adjusting house prices.

If the government is interfering with the market by not allowing prices to float to reflect this reality, or there is interference to take away the price signals to buyers by making it easier to buy a house, then it increases the likelihood that someone will make a bad decision.

And the way it is structured now, it is the tax payers who will end up paying the price for these bad decisions.

Say what you will about cash buyers or "speculators", at least they won't come knocking at my door if they made a bad choice.

Ultimately, if the government fosters policies that artificially increase house prices, then home borrowers aren't necessarily "owning" or "building wealth". While real estate can be an investment, for many people they end up being a poor store of wealth (with appreciation approximating inflation) and a consumption good.

As a homeowner, you're not holding a company that can innovate, cut costs, and enter new markets. You're ultimately holding a product which must be either sold to the next user or leased to the next renter. Houses are a good created for a specific use – to put a roof over one's head. They are not magical money machines. Previous generations understood this very simple concept. One built a home as a place to live and escape the elements – and worse yet, the squalor of tenement housing. Homes were not retirement tools, but rather long-term goods.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/h ... investment

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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Debt is a result of borrowing money to buy a house, not renting.

But by owning a home you're at least building equity. And in most cases you're paying less on a mortgage that you would an apartment that's similar in size. So that's more money in your pocket for paying down other debts. That's the same effect as building wealth and decreasing debt.

And buying a house doesn't automatically help someone "own and build wealth". It has to be the right house, in the right area, at the right time.


Yes it does. You're focusing on the rare exceptions, and ignoring the general rule.

The market is designed to signal which houses are the right houses in the right area at the right time by adjusting house prices.


"Right" by whose definition?

If the government is interfering with the market by not allowing prices to float to reflect this reality, or there is interference to take away the price signals to buyers by making it easier to buy a house, then it increases the likelihood that someone will make a bad decision.


The government isn't "interfering with the market," except in the sense that it is trying to give some folks a break for getting screwed during the housing collapse, mostly due to no fault of their own. It was that perfect market that was left to run amok on its own that got us in this mess to begin with.
And the way it is structured now, it is the tax payers who will end up paying the price for these bad decisions.


You're leaping to illicit conclusions while basing an argument on unproved assumptions. You still haven't pointed to any "bad decisions," nor have to explained how the taxpayer will foot the bill. You just assert that the government's attempt to help people live the American dream, will lead to "bad decisions" that will cost you tax money. Well, how?

Say what you will about cash buyers or "speculators", at least they won't come knocking at my door if they made a bad choice.


It isn't about them making a bad choice. It is about them overrunning the market, buying up houses from underneath hard working folks who would rather live in them. By buying up two, three and four houses with no intention of living in them, they're effectively creating a housing bubble and driving up prices. And when they make bad financial decisions that lead them to bankruptcy, they don't default on just one home, but rather all three or four of them.

Ultimately, if the government fosters policies that artificially increase house prices, then home borrowers aren't necessarily "owning" or "building wealth".


The government's intent isn't to "artificially increase" prices. That's just a natural side effect by making mortgages easier to obtain. And what the hell is a home borrower? Do you mean the vast majority of American "home owners" who actually pay a mortgage? I can assure you that if you are paying a mortgage, you want your home values to increase. Because if you buy a home for say, $200k with a $30k down payment (to avoid paying PMI), you're going to finance the other $170k and still have $30k of wealth (equity) that grows with every mortgage payment. But if development in the area causes your home value to jump to say $300k, then that's like watching your equity jump $100k as well.

So in what scenario is this bad for homeowners?

While real estate can be an investment, for many people they end up being a poor store of wealth (with appreciation approximating inflation) and a consumption good.


You don't seem to understand how real estate investment can turn people into millionaires rather quickly. It isn't a matter of buying homes and sitting around hoping they triple in value before retirement. Real estate speculators love to buy homes that are dirt cheap, usually because the homeowner is going bankrupt and is forced to sell well below market value. They literally feed off of the hardships of others, taking advantage of the situation. But that's capitalism, so I know you're all for it. So what they do is they then turn around and "flip" it for a profit. Just an example, the house across the street from us was sold for a ridiculously low price of $109k (built 2003, 2800 sq ft). I walked over one day and spoke with the man who bought it. He had a pick up truck and some Mexicans installing a granite counter top. I asked him how he got it so cheap, and he said that's his business. He literally owns about two dozen homes in the Atlanta area. He said that he already had a buyer lined up who wanted to pay $180k. He had to put in about $20k in renovations, but ultimately he will be making a $50k profit for very little work. Now if you could make $50,000 in a couple of weeks, would you do it? Can you not see how this could turn some folks into millionaires in a relatively short period of time?

But if you're talking about the expectation that your home will increase in value, well traditionally that has also been the case. You seem to be fixated on the housing collapse and treating it as the norm. There is a reason why real estate investment was considered a no brainer for decades. The general rule was that their values always went up. But as I said, the unbridled capitalism and entrepreneurial greed is what got us into this mess. The poorer folks who have trouble getting loans were the ones who were punished the most. And since you're so focused on your precious tax dollars, it was their taxes as well that bailed out the banks. So I have no problem seeing taxpayer money bail out other taxpayers instead. It is amazing what gets a Republican upset the most; helping those in need. Because helping the wealthy is justified so long as it is an undisturbed market doing all the work, picking the winners and losers. Right?
_EAllusion
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _EAllusion »

Kevin Graham wrote:
Real estate prices were heavily inflated in 2007/2008, as were overall home ownership rates.

Yes, they were inflated the same way gas prices are artificially inflated today, via oil speculation.

You don't seem to account for any of this, but instead just refer to charts showing price inflation happened, and then blame it all on the government for reducing interest rates. Well, rates have been ridiculously low for years now, and yet that hasn't seemed to create another bubble.


I didn't reduce the housing bubble merely into fed policy. I said it played a significant factor, which it did. It's strange that your care for what economists think tends to ebb and flow with what mirrors political policy views you hold for other reasons. The reason the housing bubble starts in that graph where it does is in large part due to a collapse in the cost of lending driving by a low prime rate that was used as a stimulative response to the 2001 recession. One of the major mistakes Alan Greenspan admits to making in material you have referred to before was keeping the fed rate too low for too long. This helped make debt for mortgages artificially cheap, which led to more risky decisions.

The two other major factors was the interrelated phenomena of the rise of mortgage-backed securities as a hot investment and the growth of Chinese savings looking for investment opportunities. Put them together and you've got your subprime crisis, which eventually overwhelmed the market itself that was primed for a correction for a variety of reasons.

In other posts, you've written material that seems to indicate you don't think loose fed policy can have serious inflationary consequences because, well, it hasn't happened yet. Of course, nothing ever happens until it happens. It's a strange belief, because that is essentially inevitable if it goes on long enough. I take this post as related to that theme. Extremely loose monetary policy hasn't resulted in inflation in the real estate market such as it did in the mid-2000's because it currently is combating tight credit and deflationary pressure that existed in the wake of a financial collapse. That can't go on for too long without consequences. Case in point, the Fed has leveraged itself in recent years to the point it's several times worse than the worst major private banks when it comes to capital/assets ratio. Oh, the moral hazard of Uncle Sam.

The issue here is whether helping more Americans own their first home is going to create another bubble,


As has been pointed out, there's nothing inherently superior about home ownership and it's unclear why encouraging it with coercive measures should be a legitimate function of the government. Real estate is not the king of all investment opportunities. If the housing collapse taught you anything, that should be it.

So as long as we correct those problems, I'm saying there is really no reason to believe helping poorer Americans own and build wealth, as opposed to renting and staying in debt, is going to create another bubble.

The only people who really benefit from high prices are people like you and I who have their homes paid off. But those trying to get into home ownership? Obviously they'd be better off in a buyer's market.
It is a buyer's market. Inflating the price of real estate hurts a buyer's market, not helps it. It's harder to purchase a home now because lending practices have tightened and consumer purchasing power has weakened. Based on this post, you seem to want the tighter lending practices and not want the housing market to inflate to price out buyers. So why are you arguing for the opposite? A recovery in the sense it is being used here represents an evaporation of the buyer's market.

Mortgages, home maintenance, and property taxes are more expensive than renting. That's especially true if you were to take out the government subsidies to being a home owner. If you were to take the money that you'd save by not paying for a home as a renter and instead invest that in other areas, you'll probably beat the real estate investment purchased with borrowed money. Equity in your home is nice, but so is a fat portfolio of stocks. You're portraying home ownership as the end-all-be-all of lower income American's capacity to invest, which is false and bad financial advice. Again, if what you are really saying is that you don't believe low income Americans can be trusted to save money unless you prod them into home ownership with sweetened deals, so they need that for their own good, then I disagree with and would challenge your paternalistic conception of government. And if that's what you really are arguing, you should be more up front about your nanny-statism.
_cinepro
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _cinepro »

The government isn't "interfering with the market," except in the sense that it is trying to give some folks a break for getting screwed during the housing collapse, mostly due to no fault of their own. It was that perfect market that was left to run amok on its own that got us in this mess to begin with.


There were many factors in the housing bubble (and collapse), but your "no fault of their own" comment is silly. Each home buyer that made a bad investment was just as participatory in the bubble as every other player.

I say this as someone who rented through the entire bubble. I had cash for a down payment, and lived in a too-small apartment from 2004-2007, and then rented a house from 2007-2010. It wasn't until 2010 that I bought a short sale. I had the same opportunities as everyone else to get the same loans and buy the same suburban houses, but somehow I was able not to. I was able to look at the housing market and realize prices were too high and would be coming down. I was able to look at the loan terms being offered and recognize the dangers to my financial well-being. I was able to see the decisions my friends and neighbors were making, and see the land mines being set.

Were all these decisions also made "through no fault of my own"? No. They were entirely my fault. And if my good decisions were my fault, then I have to recognize that other peoples' bad decisions were also their fault. They may have been lied to, but I was also lied to. They may have been given poor advice from well meaning friends, but so was I. In the end, they made the decision. For many, it ended up being a terrifically terrible investment decision, and that's all it was. Why my tax money needs to go to help the people who made these bad decisions, I'll never understand.
_Analytics
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _Analytics »

EAllusion wrote:I didn't reduce the housing bubble merely into fed policy. I said it played a significant factor, which it did. It's strange that your care for what economists think tends to ebb and flow with what mirrors political policy views you hold for other reasons. The reason the housing bubble starts in that graph where it does is in large part due to a collapse in the cost of lending driving by a low prime rate that was used as a stimulative response to the 2001 recession. One of the major mistakes Alan Greenspan admits to making in material you have referred to before was keeping the fed rate too low for too long. This helped make debt for mortgages artificially cheap, which led to more risky decisions.

The two other major factors was the interrelated phenomena of the rise of mortgage-backed securities as a hot investment and the growth of Chinese savings looking for investment opportunities. Put them together and you've got your subprime crisis, which eventually overwhelmed the market itself that was primed for a correction for a variety of reasons.

Hi EAllusion,

While I agree with most of what you say in this thread, I have to take issue with the relative importance you ascribe to the low prime rate causing the housing bubble. According to your graph, the inflation-adjusted house prices began its steady increase in 1996, a full 5 years before the simulative response to the 2001 recession. So, the timing of the inflection isn’t nearly as explanative as you make it seem.

More fundamentally, the Federal Reserve only lowered the short-term rates—not long-term interests rates. A low prime rate doesn’t translate into low interest rates on mortgages—prime rates are by definition short-term, and are only available to institutions with exemplary credit.

The real factors for the bubble were the decisions of the players who supplied and demanded mortgages. More specifically, the cause was a vicious cycle entailing investors being suckered by so-called credit enhancements in mortgage-backed securities, and a general public who were suckered into thinking that the more leveraged you were in the housing market, the more money you made with “OPM.” This fundamental supply and demand is what lead to constantly increasing home-prices, which in turn continued illusion by both lenders and borrowers that they were being smart.

When the Fed eventually raised short-term interest rates, the market-determined long-term interest rates stayed low and the yield curve inverted. That should be enough to prove that what was going on with mortgage rates had little to do with Fed policy.
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_Analytics
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _Analytics »

cinepro wrote:
The government isn't "interfering with the market," except in the sense that it is trying to give some folks a break for getting screwed during the housing collapse, mostly due to no fault of their own. It was that perfect market that was left to run amok on its own that got us in this mess to begin with.


There were many factors in the housing bubble (and collapse), but your "no fault of their own" comment is silly. Each home buyer that made a bad investment was just as participatory in the bubble as every other player.

I say this as someone who rented through the entire bubble. I had cash for a down payment, and lived in a too-small apartment from 2004-2007, and then rented a house from 2007-2010. It wasn't until 2010 that I bought a short sale. I had the same opportunities as everyone else to get the same loans and buy the same suburban houses, but somehow I was able not to. I was able to look at the housing market and realize prices were too high and would be coming down. I was able to look at the loan terms being offered and recognize the dangers to my financial well-being. I was able to see the decisions my friends and neighbors were making, and see the land mines being set.

Were all these decisions also made "through no fault of my own"? No. They were entirely my fault. And if my good decisions were my fault, then I have to recognize that other peoples' bad decisions were also their fault. They may have been lied to, but I was also lied to. They may have been given poor advice from well meaning friends, but so was I. In the end, they made the decision. For many, it ended up being a terrifically terrible investment decision, and that's all it was. Why my tax money needs to go to help the people who made these bad decisions, I'll never understand.

Congratulations on a wise investment. I totally agree with your point. Borrowers can claim they were deceived by predatory lenders, and investors can claim they were deceived by investment banks and rating agencies, but the fact of the matter is that people need to take responsibility for their own decisions.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_mledbetter
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _mledbetter »

Analytics wrote:Congratulations on a wise investment. I totally agree with your point. Borrowers can claim they were deceived by predatory lenders, and investors can claim they were deceived by investment banks and rating agencies, but the fact of the matter is that people need to take responsibility for their own decisions.


Well, I'm one of those people who made a terrible decision and bought my house at peak prices and now my house is worth 25% less than what I paid for it. I'm not looking for a bailout, but damn it hurts. Stupid me.
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_subgenius
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Re: Help the Housing Market By Giving More Bad Loans?

Post by _subgenius »

Kevin Graham wrote:cinepro. where does it say anything about "giving bad loans"?

perhaps you overlooked the mention of "Federal Housing Authority" ?

Whites represent the majority of at-risk borrowers...but....african americans and latinos represent almost twice the percentile of those in imminent foreclosure. This has been shown to be regardless of any differences with income.

Most every study has shared the same conclusion...the rise in loans with high risk default and the relaxing of controls and standards caused the housing crisis.
On that conclusion it appears that Obama is promoting that we "rise" the loans to high risk default borrowers and "relax" current controls and standards.

The OP makes a good point and once again proves that Obama knows very little about economics.
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