However, Harris’s popular-vote edge is almost entirely negated by the bigger Electoral College bias against her. In our polls-only forecast pairing Biden against Trump, the Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by just 1.1 points to win the presidency. That’s thanks to Biden doing better in Pennsylvania, the likeliest tipping-point state in our model. Harris, by contrast, would need to win the popular vote by 3.5-4 points to win Pennsylvania and, with it, the Electoral College.
However, whether Harris would truly be a stronger candidate than Biden also depends on information besides the polls. In our full forecast model — which includes a variety of non-polling economic and political variables, which we call the “fundamentals” — Harris does much worse than Biden across the board. Whereas Biden has a 48-in-100 chance to win the Electoral College, Harris has only a 31-in-100 chance.
So What About Kamala Harris?
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
From the 538 article linked above:
"I have learned with what evils tyranny infects a state. For it frustrates all the virtues, robs freedom of its lofty mood, and opens a school of fawning and terror, inasmuch as it leaves matters not to the wisdom of the laws, but to the angry whim of those who are in authority.”
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Is this true?
Is there somebody on this board that thinks Biden will be president in four years?I think people are hoping that he will recognize we're running Kamala Harris for president right now. She's -- that's who we're running. Nobody believes Joe Biden's going to be president in four years.
Chap: Mayan Elephant:
Not only have I denounced the Big Lie, I have denounced the Big lie big lie.
Not only have I denounced the Big Lie, I have denounced the Big lie big lie.
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
If Biden wants to stay in and thinks he can do it then the thinking has been done and best support the guy. The only thing that matters is keeping Trump out, and I haven't found any serious arguments for another candidate's chances of winning to be better. If Biden dies or is rushed to memory care on day 2, so be it. His cabinet will figure it out and be okay.
We can't take farmers and take all their people and send them back because they don't have maybe what they're supposed to have. They get rid of some of the people who have been there for 25 years and they work great and then you throw them out and they're replaced by criminals.
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
For sure. And by figure it out, VP Harris would become President. I'm happy to see that happen if need be but also recognize that there is a contingency of voters who are seeing Biden's performance in the debate as evidence they are effectively voting for Harris to become our first woman President. So there is value in exploring what that means, in my opinion.Gadianton wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:09 amIf Biden wants to stay in and thinks he can do it then the thinking has been done and best support the guy. The only thing that matters is keeping Trump out, and I haven't found any serious arguments for another candidate's chances of winning to be better. If Biden dies or is rushed to memory care on day 2, so be it. His cabinet will figure it out and be okay.
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Here is how she acts under pressure. This is after the debate which means less than a week ago. It's five minutes long. She says if Donald Trump wins he will be a dictator on day 1.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics ... ate-digvid
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics ... ate-digvid
Last edited by yellowstone123 on Tue Jul 09, 2024 2:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Wait til they start running real coverage of San Francisco. If the media gets backed into a corner to tell the truth about SF it is going to make Biden's disease look as benign as a haircut in comparison.yellowstone123 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:15 amAsk Willie Brown's wife what she thinks about Kamala Harris. This wasn't a slip by Newsom in an alcoholic daze with his campaign manager's wife, Harris was Willie Browns girlfriend when he was married to another woman and he was mayor of San Fransisco. When he was Speaker of the House of in California. he got her cushy board appointments.
Here is how she acts under pressure. This is after the debate which means less than a week ago. It's five minutes long.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics ... ate-digvid
Chap: Mayan Elephant:
Not only have I denounced the Big Lie, I have denounced the Big lie big lie.
Not only have I denounced the Big Lie, I have denounced the Big lie big lie.
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Biden has already claimed to be the first black woman to serve, so, maybe Harris can settle for something else on the identity politics spectrum?honorentheos wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:21 am... Biden's performance in the debate as evidence they are effectively voting for Harris to become our first woman President. So there is value in exploring what that means, in my opinion.
https://youtu.be/o78NXPhFiy4?si=bHEzzRTNNfsL4wwY
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Wait, you mean she used Trump’s own silly words against him? No fair!!!yellowstone123 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:15 amHere is how she acts under pressure. This is after the debate which means less than a week ago. It's five minutes long. She says if Donald Trump wins he will be a dictator on day 1.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics ... ate-digvid
"I have learned with what evils tyranny infects a state. For it frustrates all the virtues, robs freedom of its lofty mood, and opens a school of fawning and terror, inasmuch as it leaves matters not to the wisdom of the laws, but to the angry whim of those who are in authority.”
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Re: So What About Kamala Harris?
Why is that terrifying?
I'll bet you don't answer. You didn't answer about the terrifying liberal agenda to destroy the country either. I know, you answer what you want, when you want, no expectations.
I'll bet you don't answer. You didn't answer about the terrifying liberal agenda to destroy the country either. I know, you answer what you want, when you want, no expectations.
We can't take farmers and take all their people and send them back because they don't have maybe what they're supposed to have. They get rid of some of the people who have been there for 25 years and they work great and then you throw them out and they're replaced by criminals.