Thread for discussing climate change

[canpakes]

… cherry picking …

Speaking of …

Many growers in northern Michigan are anticipating a smaller harvest for the second year in a row. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) anticipates 65.6 million pounds of tart cherries this year. That’s 3.7 million pounds less than the 69.3 million pounds harvested in 2020, when it fell by 59 percent over 2019.

The United States produces anywhere from 275 to 300 million pounds of tart cherries each year, according to the Cherry Marketing Institute, with the cherries mostly used for baking and food production.
…

As harvests are happening this month, Michigan is still trying to figure out just how severe this will be for its farmers. The state produces about 75 percent of all tart cherries grown in the United States and provides roughly 10,000 jobs to Michiganders, according to Julie Gordon, president of Cherry Marketing Institute.

This second low harvest — which follows multiple poor years from 2010-2019 — is causing financial ripple effects, from job losses to fears for future crops. Cherry Central Cooperative is closing its Oceana Foods Facility in Shelby that specializes in drying and processing tart cherries, which are used for consumer products like cherry pies and concentrate. Due to insufficient volume of tart cherries, the facility’s closure will affect 74 employees.
…

What is causing these low harvests

As the effects of climate change are felt globally, Michigan farmers are experiencing it firsthand.

Across the state over the last century, the average yearly temperature has increased by two or three degrees Fahrenheit, according to Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Since 2000, most years have been above that average.

Along with rising temperatures, the state can expect changes such as shifting seasonal patterns and extreme weather events involving heat and precipitation.

“In recent years, we have seen really strange sudden warm ups … and then the other thing it was followed by was a mild winter,” Rothwell said. “Those trees are ready to start growing as soon as they get some warm weather, so we didn’t get that beautiful moderating effect of the lake as much this year and that resulted in 19 freeze events.”

The unanticipated weather isn’t just affecting tart cherries in Michigan, but other crops as well. Jamie Clover Adams, executive director of Michigan Asparagus Advisory Board, said growers experienced their smallest crop of asparagus in over a decade this year and attributed it to the weather as well.

[Res Ipsa]

You should take more time to understand a point before flailing around trying to refute it. And that’s what you’ve done twice now — flailed.

Just keep telling yourself that stability is irrelevant to a farmer when she is deciding to invest in land, structures, and equipment with payback periods of decades.

Please.

Similarly, seek understanding before conflating, please. You have conflated just as much as Manetho exaggerated.

Like this post quoted here. You are trying to win a point about a farmer or rancher in the contemporary era, when the assertion by Manetho was that civilization was predicated on this thing he mentioned. Payback and return on investment is not unique to ranching and farming, it applies to just about every investment to a degree. Stability is a factor in that decision. That does not prove the predication point.

So your post is clever, but not convincing. Manetho's predication claim was silly or dumb or incomplete or something. Garbage maybe.

He said our civilization is predicated on… You’re misstating what he said. Its a perfectly valid point, especially given that market forces squeeze out profits at the expense of resiliency. Our health care system is a perfect example. It still isn’t equipped to cope with the change from no pandemic to pandemic. Climate change is like a pandemic that gets worse and worse year over year for decades, if not centuries.

We’ve all noticed that, other than spitting out adjectives, you’ve done nothing to respond to the point.

[Chap]

So far as I can gather, Ceeboo accepts that global heating is happening, and that it is caused by past and present human activity. That's good. So, given that this is a problem which has the capacity to destroy the possibility of our children and grandchildren living the kind of life most of us on this board have taken for granted, I'd really like to read what Ceeboo has to say on the topic of this thread - for his convenience I repeat the OP below.

On another thread, Ceeboo said:

[...]

Reasonable and balanced minded people (no matter what their political ideologies happen to be) all fully understand that climate change is real and that we ought to start seriously trying to find reasonable solutions to this issue (Not completely insane proposals.)

[...]

Yes we ought. So Ceeboo - tell us a bit about what you think might be 'reasonable solutions' to the urgent problems that confront humanity about the increasingly disastrous changes to world climate. As you say 'we ought to start seriously trying' to do that. So off you go ...

This is a thread specifically for discussing the issue of climate change.

What is it?

Why is it happening?

What will its consequences be?

What should we do about it?

So - for starters, what do we hope will come out of the forthcoming COP-26 conference this autumn, at which the USA will certainly play an important role?

See: UNITING THE WORLD TO TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE: Glasgow 31 October -12 November

The COP26 summit will bring parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

[Atlanticmike]

So far as I can gather, Ceeboo accepts that global heating is happening, and that it is caused by past and present human activity. That's good. So, given that this is a problem which has the capacity to destroy the possibility of our children and grandchildren living the kind of life most of us on this board have taken for granted, I'd really like to read what Ceeboo has to say on the topic of this thread - for his convenience I repeat the opening post below.

On another thread, Ceeboo said:

[...]

Reasonable and balanced minded people (no matter what their political ideologies happen to be) all fully understand that climate change is real and that we ought to start seriously trying to find reasonable solutions to this issue (Not completely insane proposals.)

[...]

Yes we ought. So Ceeboo - tell us a bit about what you think might be 'reasonable solutions' to the urgent problems that confront humanity about the increasingly disastrous changes to world climate. As you say 'we ought to start seriously trying' to do that. So off you go ...

This is a thread specifically for discussing the issue of climate change.

What is it?

Why is it happening?

What will its consequences be?

What should we do about it?

So - for starters, what do we hope will come out of the forthcoming COP-26 conference this autumn, at which the USA will certainly play an important role?

See: UNITING THE WORLD TO TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE: Glasgow 31 October -12 November

How how will climate change "destroy" the lives of my grandchildren? Sorry, but you sound like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

[Chap]

How how will climate change "destroy" the lives of my grandchildren?

I didn't actually say that. I said:

this is a problem which has the capacity to destroy the possibility of our children and grandchildren living the kind of life most of us on this board have taken for granted

Anyhow, both of us are used to cheap and plentiful food, right? As global heating proceeds, US maize production is likely to decline heavily. But so is world maize production. Our descendants will miss all that corn, and they will have to have to pay a lot more for what they do get. And so on, over the whole range of food production.

Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks

Abstract

Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth’s climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world’s major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 °C and 4 °C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually zero, but it increases to 7% under 2 °C warming and 86% under 4 °C warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the ∼800 million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments in breeding for heat tolerance.

That is from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Please read the article and tell us how it is at fault before you inform us that the PNSA is the organ of a religious cult, and all shall be well no matter what.

Then there's the increased extremes of weather, giving you both droughts and (at other times) floods. Then there is the global instability and increased likelihood of war as desperate populations force their governments to fight for shrinking resources. It's not going to be nice ...

[Chap]

Thanks for cleaning up my thread, mods.

It's great to have a normal on-topic board again - and I didn't even have to ask!

[Lem]

Thanks for cleaning up my thread, mods.

It's great to have a normal on-topic board again - and I didn't even have to ask!

Adding my thanks too. It’s really made a difference.

[Chap]

It would be nice to get back on topic.

May I recall my post above that concluded:

So Ceeboo - tell us a bit about what you think might be 'reasonable solutions' to the urgent problems that confront humanity about the increasingly disastrous changes to world climate. As you say 'we ought to start seriously trying' to do that. So off you go ...

I wait for a response with pleasurable anticipation!

[Res Ipsa]

He said our civilization is predicated on… You’re misstating what he said. Its a perfectly valid point, especially given that market forces squeeze out profits at the expense of resiliency. Our health care system is a perfect example. It still isn’t equipped to cope with the change from no pandemic to pandemic. Climate change is like a pandemic that gets worse and worse year over year for decades, if not centuries.

Wow, Res. Wow. Let's play that out. Are you implying that there is a distinction between "our civilization is predicated on" and "our civilization was predicated on"? This is REALLY fascinating. You got my attention with that one.

If they are not the same, and our civilization is not predicated on the same things that it was predicated on, then what? When did it change or evolve. And, for who? Is my civilization the same as yours? Is our civilization the same as the civilization in Southern Louisiana and also far far far far East Chile?

What exactly is the misstatement?

Garbage is a noun.

We’ve all noticed [snipped to add emphasis to the subject]

This post of yours is a gem. You caught my attention twice. Thanks man. I mean that. I will take posts like this anytime if you have them.

Who is "We" in this declaration? For whom do you speak? Is it possible that the group you are representing in this declaration is subject to group-think, negative bias, confirmation bias or any other normal elements of interaction, some of which are exacerbated by online (non-personal) communication? Do you represent the people that read this forum, but do not respond? Do you represent Shades? Who the hell is "We"?

We = the people reading this thread. You told us all that you wouldn’t debunk a post that you describe as easily debunked. And you’ve kept your word. On top of that, you haven’t responded to the substance of any of my posts that illustrate why Mantheo’s post was spot on.

Mantheo made a point about civilization today. The history of how it came to be that way might be an interesting topic, but it’s irrelevant to the claim. A lengthy discussion over the possible meanings of “civilization” might be fun, but unless you can produce some construction of the term consistent with Mantheo’s use of the term that is not predicated on stability, it’s also not relevant.

And your latest attempt to change the subject to one of your favorite hobby horses simply emphasizes your inability to debunk what you claim was easily debunked.

[canpakes]

.
Food for thought:

It is estimated that about 7% of the calories consumed by Americans come from soybean oil; it accounts for over 40% of the intake of both essential fatty acids, the omega-6 fatty acid linoleic acid and the omega-3 fatty acid, alpha-linolenic acid.1

The United States produces about one-third of all soybeans in the world followed closely by Brazil and then Argentina. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that global soybean production this year will be approximately 320 million metric tons. However, only about 6% of soybeans are consumed as whole soyfoods, mostly in Asia.

In contrast, soy protein is widely used as an ingredient by the U.S. food industry where it is found in everything from bread to tomato soup.

... and ...

The major (US) feed grains are corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn is the primary U.S. feed grain, accounting for more than 95 percent of total feed grain production and use.

More than 90 million acres of land are planted to corn, with the majority of the crop grown in the Heartland region.
Most of the crop is used as the main energy ingredient in livestock feed.
Corn is also processed into a multitude of food and industrial products including starch, sweeteners, corn oil, beverage and industrial alcohol, and fuel ethanol.

The United States is a major player in the world corn trade market, with between 10 and 20 percent of its corn crop exported to other countries.

With that in mind:

Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate

Chengzheng Yu, Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna

Scientific Reports volume 11, Article number: 12351 (2021) Cite this article

Abstract

We quantify long-run adaptation of U.S. corn and soybean yields to changes in temperature and precipitation over 1951–2017. Results show that although the two crops became more heat- and drought-tolerant, their productivity under normal temperature and precipitation conditions decreased. Over 1951–2017, heat- and drought-tolerance increased corn and soybean yields by 33% and 20%, whereas maladaptation to normal conditions reduced yields by 41% and 87%, respectively, with large spatial variations in effects. Changes in climate are projected to reduce average corn and soybean yields by 39–68% and 86–92%, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2013–2017 depending on the warming scenario. After incorporating estimated effects of climate-neutral technological advances, the net change in yield ranges from (−)13 to 62% for corn and (−)57 to (−)26% for soybeans in 2050 relative to 2013–2017. Our analysis uncovers the inherent trade-offs and limitations of existing approaches to crop adaptation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91192-5