The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Res Ipsa]

A very positive possibility is raised by this news item, though obviously it will be important to have this confirmed by a full scientific publication. A highly reliable antibody test that gives results in 20 minutes would be a very valuable weapon in controlling the spread of the virus. Of course, as the article notes, we cannot yet be sure that the presence of antibodies indicates lasting immunity.

[Translation note: 'Regius [pr. "reejyus"] Professor' below means that in theory he was appointed by the Crown. In practice it just means he is a pretty distinguished researcher.]

UK plans millions of coronavirus antibody tests after trial success - report
The finger-prick tests were found to be 98.6% accurate in secret human trials held in June, according to the Daily Telegraph

(I quote from the Guardian report because the Telegraph has a paywall)

The UK government is planning to distribute millions of free coronavirus antibody tests after successful secret trials, according to reports.

The finger-prick tests, which can tell within 20 minutes if a person has ever been exposed to the coronavirus, were found to be 98.6% accurate in human trials held in June, the Daily Telegraph reported.

The test was developed by the UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC), a partnership between Oxford University and leading UK diagnostics firms.

Sir John Bell, Oxford’s regius professor of medicine and head of the government’s antibody testing programme, was quoted by the Telegraph as saying: “This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves.”

However, the government’s attempts to roll out mass testing have been dogged by problems. In March, Boris Johnson said finger-prick antibody tests ordered from China would be a “game-changer” but they proved ineffective.

It also remains unclear whether someone who tests positive for coronavirus antibodies would be immune to future infection because scientists do not yet have a full picture of how the disease works.

Britain’s only antibody tests approved thus far have involved blood samples being sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days, The Telegraph said.

Anticipating a regulatory approval in the coming weeks, tens of thousands of prototypes have already been manufactured in factories across the United Kingdom, the report added.

Ministers are hoping that the AbC-19 lateral flow test will be available for use in a mass screening program before the end of the year, the newspaper reported.

“It was found to be 98.6 per cent accurate, and that’s very good news,” Chris Hand, the leader of the UK-RTC, was quoted as saying by the Telegraph.

“We’re now scaling up with our partners to produce hundreds of thousands of doses every month”, Hand said, adding the government’s health department is in talks with UK-RTC over buying millions of tests before the year ends.

The tests are likely to be free and would be ordered online instead of being sold in supermarkets, according to plans cited by the newspaper.

“While these tests will help us better understand how coronavirus is spreading across the country, we do not yet know whether antibodies indicate immunity from reinfection or transmission,” a health department spokesman told the Telegraph.

Accuracy is a blended figure. Have they stated the sensitivity and specificity rates?

[_Jersey Girl]

In other news, Texas and Arizona are bringing in refrigerated box trucks because the morgues are nearly full. Yup. Believe me. We've done a fantastic job. We're winning.

Fake news. Those are crisis actor trucks.

Are you being sarcastic or is that truth? RI you need to talk to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

[_Chap]

Accuracy is a blended figure. Have they stated the sensitivity and specificity rates?

Indeed. As I said in my post "obviously it will be important to have this confirmed by a full scientific publication", where one will be able to check such details.

[_Res Ipsa]

Are you being sarcastic or is that truth? RI you need to talk to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

Full on sarcasm.

[_MeDotOrg]

The answer to this question is out there, but I don't know exactly where it is.

We humans are fighting a war, a literal war against Covid-19. The only difference is that our enemy is not human. The simple math of the past 5 months shows 140,000 dead.

I'm trying to think of any other time in American history when we've had 140,000 dead in 5 months of battle. Does anyone know of website that can provide that type of information?

[_Jersey Girl]

The answer to this question is out there, but I don't know exactly where it is.

The answer to what question? How to resolve the pandemic? If that's what you mean, I think the answer is in the collaborative hands of scientists on a global level. Some answers (like social distancing, mask wearing, quarantining, contact tracing and testing, therapeutic remedies) have already emerged. Unfortunately in the case of the US, our President who has the ability to fund state efforts, is playing political games with the solutions that he himself could support. His dicking around for months now hasn't helped a damn thing. Not even himself.

Because he's a complete and utter self absorbed menace to the state of public health in the country he presumably leads except he hadn't got a leadership bone in his body and tries to degrade those that are able to lead and educate at the same time. Without a President who has the ability to lead, we're all forced to face the fact that the leadership has to be supplied by each individual citizen.

And, we're doing exactly that.

We humans are fighting a war, a literal war against Covid-19. The only difference is that our enemy is not human. The simple math of the past 5 months shows 140,000 dead.

Yes, I think I mentioned months ago that the nations of the world are fighting WW3 and a common enemy. That's why I think that collaboration and mutual support is so important. The US is so far behind other countries in our efforts to the point where the wheels are now falling off, where by rights and reputation, we should have been the example and led the world through this war. But no.

I'm trying to think of any other time in American history when we've had 140,000 dead in 5 months of battle. Does anyone know of website that can provide that type of information?

The only thing that comes close are the CDC stats on various diseases. Otherwise, unless someone has come out with a website, you'll have to look up the casualties from various wars and plagues for comparison. I had to do that for a post here probably a month ago.

I think the writing is on the wall for this country. The majority of Americans read it just fine and are responsive to it. I see it every day in remarks and behaviors. Not the "Karens" throwing fits. I'm talking about the mask makers, the parents and teachers who are fighting school re-openings, the number of shoppers who refuse to shop inside stores or patronize restaurants. People like me who daily follow the stats and tell others about them.

The answer to resolving this viral issue is at least partially in our own hands if we are willing to serve a two-fold purpose for the good of the whole.

1. Slow the spread so we don't overwhelm covid units, gut PPE and therapeutic drug supplies, and infect medical personnel.

2. Buy ourselves time until researchers are confident in whatever vaccines they are willing to launch.

If we can do those things, we will have done our part. In spite of the complete clown that was elected to lead us. We have to lead ourselves.

Okay I don't know what all just came out of my head there but I'm posting it. ;-)

[/soapbox]

[_Jersey Girl]

Here's a snapshot of the last week. Newly reported cases. The number of new cases has tripled and are on the way to quadrupling since the states re-opened without following CDC guidelines. So what the hell do we expect?? We were averaging approx. 20K per day at what we thought was the height of the pandemic, the numbers went down and look where we are at now.

Read it and weep, folks. Wear a damn mask. The only way to make this "go away" is for us to give it no where to go.

Jul 12: + 57,184
Jul 13: +62,366
Jul 14: +67,141
Jul 15: +68,382
Jul 16: +77,924
Jul 17: +72,699
Jul 18: +63,936

[_MeDotOrg]

The answer to this question is out there, but I don't know exactly where it is.

The answer to what question? How to resolve the pandemic?

I'm trying to think of how to respond to those who say "I don't want my government telling me what to do."

My response begins with the fact that we are in a literal war, a global war, against an enemy. In times of war, we ask young men and women to give up their lives to fight and die for their country. In this war, we're asking people not to fight and die, but to not get sick. To that end, social distancing and mask-wearing in public.

Unlike wars against humans, we have to develop new weapons each time we encounter a new virus. Because our bodies have no immunity to the virus, we have to hunker down and avoid infecting ourselves and each other. In the beginning of this war, we cannot fight the enemy head-on, because we have not developed the weapons [vaccines and treatments] to do so.

We are the Martians in War of the Worlds. During World War II George Orwell said that result of pacifism would be the victory of fascism. And in the global war against Covid-19, there are no human neutrals. If you willingly do not take care to prevent infection, your negligence can provide the enemy with both a battleground and a battlefield victory.

And to reinforce the idea that this is a real war, I want to compare the rate of battlefield dead and injured. The deadliest month of the Civil War was May 1864, which saw a total of 98,100 casualties on both sides, with a minimum of 9,098 killed in action. The deadliest month of the Civil War saw around 10,000 deaths. In the less than 6 months, Covid-19 has taken 140,000 lives. The only reason this has not been declared the deadliest war in American history is that we haven't been fighting that long. Certainly the casualty and death rate appears to be greater than any other American war.

The difference between this war and wars against humans is that every body is drafted, whether you like it or not. Everybody has a duty to protect every body, beginning with your own.

Want to be patriotic? Want to be a good human being? Want to be an effective warrior in the fight against Covid-19? Then stop bitching and wear a forking mask.

When managing a large project, people often use 'critical dependencies' to help control workflow. If you're building a building, you can't sheetrock it until you've wired it. You have to do certain things in order. There is one dependency we need to remember when fighting this war: Our economic system is critically dependent upon the health of the human biological genome.

So when people say we must re-open to save the economy, they are ignoring the fact that fully engaging these systems before we are biologically ready is suicide. We may be the dominant creatures on this shirtpile, but just like the Martians in War of the Worlds, we can be undone.

So [long-winded answer later] my idea is to compare the casualty rates of Covid-19 against other wars, by week, month and year.

[_Jersey Girl]

The answer to what question? How to resolve the pandemic?

I'm trying to think of how to respond to those who say "I don't want my government telling me what to do."

Oh. Well, for those who scream about their Constitutional rights being violated, I have yet to see anyone identify just exactly what right that is. How about ask them to do that?

If they don't want their gov't telling them what to do for example, wearing face masks, then why not suggest that they pull up all the stop signs and traffic lights for starters. Ask them how they'd like to see health department regs abolished so that they can order a sandwich from the local eatery with a mouse stuffed into moldy bread dished up by a food worker who didn't bother to wash his/her hands after leaving the restroom. Or how about remove FDA regulations, expiration dates, pull off all the seals from processed foods, oh and let's not forget unsealing medications. I mean, the list goes on and on.

It doesn't make rational sense because it's quite simply irrational and the science says otherwise. The science is available to all of us. If you don't want to read through data or studies or news reports, you can even watch Bill Nye the Science Guy do his mask experiment online. But they don't because they are scared and they are desperate. They are deer in the headlights at this point.

The thing is that these protests have nothing to do with Constitutional rights. In the midst of a pandemic, their government has asked them to social distance and wear masks, perhaps the only 2 proactive things they can do and yet, some refuse. Why? Because it's a psych issue. They are trying to maintain a sense of control when everything around them is out of control and these two simple things they are being asked to do would actually result in some control over this invisible enemy and help them win the war, but they can't resist the impulse to object. It's the only thing they have the ability to say "no" to.

I watch the comments online under news stories, particularly local. When Walmart/Sams announced it was instituting a mandatory mask ban, people were saying things like "I'll take my business elsewhere." or "No Walmart for me now!" or "I'll just go to Target or Safeway" (groceries). And when people pointed out that those stores, too, were making masks mandatory--they went silent because they ran out of options. Our governor announced a mandatory mask order shortly thereafter. Then they attack the Governor and asked things like "If it's so important, why is he waiting until Monday to put this into effect?" Hell, I dunno. Maybe he was giving people time to scout up some masks???? Critical thinking really is just absent because so many people are in panic mode. That the news is saturated with Covid and the push-pull from Trump vs. Governors and the medical community, doesn't help. People are confused and burned out from mixed messaging that jerks them around on a daily and sometimes hour to hour basis.

I say let Darwin sort it out. I'm dead dog serious.

[Guest]

Are you being sarcastic or is that truth? RI you need to talk to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

Full on sarcasm.

I have heard it suggested that the mortuary industry is delighted with how enormously it has profited from Trump's abominable leadership on the pandemic.