Theory of Capitalism collapses

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_MadMonk
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses (Old Testament comment)

Post by _MadMonk »

CaliforniaKid wrote:
MadMonk wrote:Oh, well, if my dad is right, the Rapture is coming on May 21, so we won't have to worry about it much longer.

lol. Seriously? He's one of those?

Alas, yes. He fell into the orbit of Family Media a while ago, and they believe, based on archaeological evidence (so they say), that May 21 is the seven-thousandth anniversary of the Flood. (Which is odd, because that type usually believe that the world wasn't even created until 4004 B.C.)

As my mother said, when I showed her Dad's e-mail, "That man used to have a brain!"

MadMonk
Only the saints would joke so about the gods, because it was either joke or scream, and they alone knew it was all the same to the gods. -- Lois McMaster Bujold, The Curse of Chalion
_MadMonk
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _MadMonk »

Fifth Columnist wrote:The insurance market is broken, but it isn't because someone isn't there to force them to pay more on health care instead of profits. It's because competition has been stifled by too much government regulation. Each state regulates the insurance industry so differently that it makes it extremely difficult for new firms to enter and increases the overall cost.

Eventually, in such cases, the law gets standardized across the fifty states, much as the Uniform Motor Vehicle Code standardized driving laws, but the process can take decades. (The UMVC was just being enacted by the last few states back in the seventies, when I worked at the Columnbia University law library, and how long had motor vehicles been in use?) An alternative to a Federal government operation to do the standardizing might be an inter-state quasi-governmental body, along the lines of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, in which all fifty states would be involved, but such bodies can be very hard to control, and can be even more wasteful and inefficient than actual governments.

Fifth Columnist wrote:The problem is that too many liberals view the vast majority of markets as being subject to market failures if left to themselves. I don't think that is true.

Unfortunately, each case is highly arguable (things would be so much calmer, otherwise)--at least partly, I suppose, because one man's "market failure" tends to be another's "record profits."

Fifth Columnist wrote:The government does not have a claim to superior moral authority than people trading in free markets. There is a proper role for government, but I think it should be smaller than it is now. . . .

Just for the record, I wasn't claiming that government per se has any moral authority; I was merely referring to its legal and military power. (As a side note, however, I tend to believe that legitimate democratic governments, at least, do possess some moral authority, as being the instruments of their peoples as a whole. This is what they taught me in third-grade civics class, anyway, and I haven't found any reason to disbelieve the teacher.)

Fifth Columnist wrote:
MadMonk wrote:Which is exactly what Rand Paul, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity have been inveighing against for the past twelve months. According to Rand Paul, in fact, the Federal Reserve's "quantitative easing" (or in Paul's terms, "printing money like crazy") is producing runaway inflation and setting us up for a Hitler-type dictatorship.

So true. I wish these guys understood monetary policy at all. If they did, they would be begging Bernanke for more QE.

My apologies, friend. I guess I have been assuming that you followed that line all the way down. I am glad to learn better.

Fifth Columnist wrote:
MadMonk wrote:Oh, well, if my dad is right, the Rapture is coming on May 21, so we won't have to worry about it much longer.
MadMonk

Have your dad put his money where his mouth is by having him irrevocably give you all his stuff on May 20.

Now there's an idea . . . thanks! LOL

MadMonk
Only the saints would joke so about the gods, because it was either joke or scream, and they alone knew it was all the same to the gods. -- Lois McMaster Bujold, The Curse of Chalion
_Kevin Graham
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _Kevin Graham »

This is pure nonsense, and easily dispelled by readily available data. Any of Dr. Thomas Sowell's books, written any time within the last twenty years on economic subjects will do, but for a brief but definitive empirical refutation, you may repair to The Vision of the Anointed, in which he explodes this myth with measured ease.

Sowell provides no data. He is a paid hack by the Right who has been refuted by internet bloggers of all people. He has no credibility. The links I provided earlier provide thorough refutations of his misinformed arguments.
This teenage-like retreat to argument by authority

Sorry, but your old age will not compensate for your lack of education.
hich is perhaps Kevin's favorite technique as soon as he realizes he has no logical arguments or evidence to present in support of his claims, probably takes a back seat only to his cries of "idiot," "stupid," and "moron" as his favorite polemical standards.

I'm pretty versatile. I can point out why some people are wrong while at the same time, calling out those who qualify as idiots. The only one who thinks you've ever contributed anything of substace, no matter the topic, is you Droops. However, I love your tenacity and your upbeat attitude about your intellectual plight.
In point of fact, numerous economists find the whole long discredited Keynesian "stimulus" argument fallacious. When even the Clinton Broadcasting System feels it has to report on the dissent, one knows something is the pot is bubbling to he surface.

LOL! And so he links us to an outdated article from over two years ago, long before the stimulus was given a chance to take effect! Face it, the vast manjority of economists believe the stimulus did precisely what it was intended to do.
Then again, we turn to one of the most prestigious and respected think tanks in the nation, The Heritage Foundation,

Which I have refuted time and time again. Respected by whom, by the way? It is a Right Wing, billionaire-funded propaganda machine that feeds FOX News its weekly talking points, and nothing more.
Obama promised the creation of 3.5 million new jobs through his stimulus program (as if 3.5 million new government jobs or private sector jobs funded by taxation or fiat money creation, both in direct conflict with the requirements of sustained real economic growth in the real world private sector economy, would actually stimulate much more than the economic welfare of the specific recipients of such funds and a few indirect, peripheral entities).

You're out to lunch as usual. He said it would create or "save" that many. Maybe if you stop reading news articles from several years ago, and get your head out of CATO's arse, you might learn something. Bush produced not a single job in eight years, doing it your way.
Image
I use big pictures for your benefit, but mainly because it drives you absolutely nuts.

Turning your brain off comes easy for you, but shutting your eyes is hard to do while reading. We all know what your source comes from.
What happened? 3.3 million jobs had been lost by the beginning of 2010.

Reality check. Obama never "promised" any thing like that. He never promised that no jobs would ever be lost again. All you're doing is pointing out those who got fired, while ignoring those who got hired.
The White House said it had fulfilled President Barack Obama’s promise that the $787 billion stimulus bill would produce 3.5 million jobs by the end of this year.

The stimulus bill has generated or saved between 2.7 million and 3.7 million jobs, and thus “by some measures has exceeded the original goal of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010,” according to the latest quarterly estimate by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

While unemployment is now much higher than the White House predicted in 2009 that it would be if Congress enacted the stimulus plan, Obama has argued that this is only because the recession was worse than almost anyone expected.

Many economists say it is impossible to know what would have happened to the economy without the stimulus, but CEA and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are roughly in agreement about the number of jobs that the stimulus has saved.

Further, more than a million of the jobs created in 2010 were private sector jobs, contrary to your Right Wing myth. Compare this to the overall loss of 674,000 private sector jobs over eight years under Bush.
The unemployment rate was 7.7 percent in January of 2009, when The One was promulgating his stimulus plan. By 2010, the unemployment rate was 9.7% and was at nearly 9.8% as recently as November

Uh, the graph shows that unemployment was rising dramatically over the previous two years before Obama stepped foot in the White House. You expect miracles by a new administration during the first six months? You clearly know nothing of economics if you think that is how quickly policies are implemented and results produced, especially during a recession of this magnitude. The fact is unemployment came to a halt during Obama's first year after a consistent 20 month increase during Bush's last two years in office. When you take over as pilot on a crashing plane, you don't get to complain because the pilot is flying at a lower altitude than the previous. That's just downright idiotic, but it is essentially what you're left with. Not only did Obama's administration manage to level off the steep drop, but it has actually gained altitutde. Not very much, but it sure as hell beats crashing into the mountain, which is where we were headed under Bush.

Incidentally, unemployment jumped to ten percent during Reagan's first two years in office. Are you equally critical of his performance? Of course not. He's your iconic symbol of the perfect President. But you don't know enough about history to make educated, consistent or fair judgments. All you know how to do is rant off some monologue and then throw up a bunch of irrelevant links to your favorite think tanks.
_Droopy
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _Droopy »

Sowell provides no data.

Yes he does. He provides references and sources, as well as theoretical argument, in all of his scholarly and popular works.

He is a paid hack by the Right


CFR

He has no credibility.


According to whom?

The links I provided earlier provide thorough refutations of his misinformed arguments.


Actually...well, they don't.

I'm pretty versatile. I can point out why some people are wrong while at the same time, calling out those who qualify as idiots.


In other words, you're an intellectual poseur well versed in purple prose and snide polemics. A kind of junior Scratch, but without his literary abilities.

LOL! And so he links us to an outdated article from over two years ago, long before the stimulus was given a chance to take effect!


The excuses and evasions begin immediately, as usual.
The links I posted were from 2010 and 2011, and contain historical observations of relevant data and facts. How historical facts can be "outdated," I have no idea.

Face it, the vast manjority of economists believe the stimulus did precisely what it was intended to do.


The empirical evidence to date indicates that it is, for all intents, a miserable failure. We don't have to bother with theoretical considerations to demonstrate that from readily available data. If you are in a government union, a government agency, are a public school teacher, or part of a community organizing group, you may well perceive the "stimulus" to have been a resounding success. As the economy has continued to deteriorate since its inception, however, if you are one of the several million Americans who has lost his/her job since the stimulus, you may have a different take on things (the economy has shed some 1.8 private sector jobs since Obama signed the stimulus into law in Febuary of 2009).

Which I have refuted time and time again.


You're either becoming a parody of yourself, or of Scratch, I'm not yet sure which, at this point.

Respected by whom, by the way?


Large numbers of people, a number of them distinguished intellectuals, shcolars, academics, and policy makers.


It is a Right Wing, billionaire-funded propaganda machine that feeds FOX News its weekly talking points, and nothing more.


1. CFR

2. Who funds Media Matters Kevin?

3. In case this all went over your head, a string of bare assertions backed up by no evidence, statements of opinion, and ad hominem circumstantial innuendos are not arguments.

Now, exhibit 'a' of what we're up against when we attempt rational debate with Mr. Graham:

Obama promised the creation of 3.5 million new jobs through his stimulus program (as if 3.5 million new government jobs or private sector jobs funded by taxation or fiat money creation, both in direct conflict with the requirements of sustained real economic growth in the real world private sector economy, would actually stimulate much more than the economic welfare of the specific recipients of such funds and a few indirect, peripheral entities).


You're out to lunch as usual. He said it would create or "save" that many.


Now, as any educated person who has followed this issue knows full well, virtually all the jobs "saved" have been government jobs (and especially those heavily unionized) and that only trivial quantities of new private sector jobs have been created at all. Indeed, a quick check of the empirical facts shows that some 1.8 private sector jobs -net - have been lost over the last two years, and unemployment still hovers near 9% (with the actual rate, including those who have ceased looking for work altogether, around double that figure).

Turning your brain off comes easy for you, but He never promised that no jobs would ever be lost again. All you're doing is pointing out those who got fired, while ignoring those who got hired.


Who has been hired? Provide some examples please.


The stimulus bill has generated or saved between 2.7 million and 3.7 million jobs, and thus “by some measures has exceeded the original goal of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010,” according to the latest quarterly estimate by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.


What "jobs," where, and in what sectors and regions of the economy?

While unemployment is now much higher than the White House predicted in 2009 that it would be if Congress enacted the stimulus plan, Obama has argued that this is only because the recession was worse than almost anyone expected.


Convenient political excuses that cannot be checked empirically - as the only history we know is the one we experienced, not a hypothetical alternative one.

Many economists say it is impossible to know what would have happened to the economy without the stimulus, but CEA and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are roughly in agreement about the number of jobs that the stimulus has saved.


What jobs, where, and in what sectors of the economy?

Further, more than a million of the jobs created in 2010 were private sector jobs, contrary to your Right Wing myth.


Hmmm. Let's look at Kevin's sources and see what we have. In the two years since the stimulus, 1.8 million private sector jobs were lost (for comparison, as of Oct. 2009, just 8 months after the stimulus was signed into law, according to the BLS the economy had lost some 2.7 million jobs across the private and public sectors)

The private sector jobs created during (note: the fact that a private sector job was created during the stimulus program cannot be used to leap to the conclusion that the stimulus had anything in particular to do with the creation of that job) 2010?

The job gains were concentrated in relatively few sectors: retailers added 27,900 positions, likely in preparation for the holiday season. Temporary agencies added 34,900. Restaurants and bars hired 24,400 people.


I see not a single source referenced in the CBS article supporting the claim of a million private sector jobs created, nor is there anything telling us whether the funding for those alleged jobs came from within the private sector itself (which would actually indicate economic growth and new wealth creation), or if it came in the form of fiat money extended as credit and debt. In other words, is the economy really growing and creating real, sustainable jobs, or are what we are seeing grounded primarily in debt and inflation?

The Department of Labor site also mentions nothing regarding the source of the private sector job creation it claims (through private investment or through inflation and government debt).


Compare this to the overall loss of 674,000 private sector jobs over eight years under Bush.


You wish to compare 674,000 to 1.8 million? Fine with me.

Uh, the graph shows that unemployment was rising dramatically over the previous two years before Obama stepped foot in the White House.


Yes, we all know that. So what. I'm not here to defend Bush and never have been.

You expect miracles by a new administration during the first six months? You clearly know nothing of economics if you think that is how quickly policies are implemented and results produced, especially during a recession of this magnitude.


In two years, the economy has continued to bottom out, and is showing only very weak signs of recovery. The small signs of recovery that exist have yet to be empirically connected to anything the government has done, and may represent nothing less than the inherent resiliency of the free market economy and its vast, complex infrastructure.

The fact is unemployment came to a halt during Obama's first year after a consistent 20 month increase during Bush's last two years in office.


This is a simply a flat footed prevarication. I've already shown, and 30 seconds on Google looking at official government sources will show, that unemployment had expanded by some 2.7 million jobless just within the first year of the stimulus. Here, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the breakdown for 2009, post stimulus:

Mar: 652,000
Apr: 519,000
May: 303,000
June: 463,000
July: 304,000
Aug: 201,000 (preliminary)
Sept: 263,000 (preliminary)
Total: 2,705,000

On top of this, Obama and the Democrats have ballooned the 9 trillion dollar federal debt left to us by Bush and the combined Republican/Democratic congress of the 2000s into a 15 trillion and rising nightmare in which spending levels have soared and intensified well over those of the Bush 8 years, as bad as spending was at that time.

When you take over as pilot on a crashing plane, you don't get to complain because the pilot is flying at a lower altitude than the previous. That's just downright idiotic, but it is essentially what you're left with. Not only did Obama's administration manage to level off the steep drop, but it has actually gained altitutde. Not very much, but it sure as hell beats crashing into the mountain, which is where we were headed under Bush.


Bush and his policies, as much criticism as can be leveled at them, were not the cause of the initial economic meltdown.

Incidentally, unemployment jumped to ten percent during Reagan's first two years in office. Are you equally critical of his performance? Of course not.


Clearly not, because the massive unemployment, inflation, and poor economic performance at that time were the remaining effects of an orgy of Keynesian credit and money manipulation, high taxes, price controlling, protectionism, and out of control government spending that began with the Great Society and then expanded dramatically under Nixon and ended with the beginning of the virtual Europeanization of the American economy under Carter, which Obama and the present Democrat party has picked up and continued with a vengeance.

He's your iconic symbol of the perfect President. But you don't know enough about history to make educated, consistent or fair judgments. All you know how to do is rant off some monologue and then throw up a bunch of irrelevant links to your favorite think tanks.


You have a long, long way to go, and on your knees as you are now, its only going to get worse before it gets better.
Nothing is going to startle us more when we pass through the veil to the other side than to realize how well we know our Father [in Heaven] and how familiar his face is to us

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I am so old that I can remember when most of the people promoting race hate were white.

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_Kevin Graham
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _Kevin Graham »

The links I posted were from 2010 and 2011, and contain historical observations of relevant data and facts. How historical facts can be "outdated," I have no idea.

The link you provided in response to my point dates to Jan 2009, the same month Obama entered office.
Large numbers of people, a number of them distinguished intellectuals, shcolars, academics, and policy makers.

Only those from the far Right with the same ideological agenda. They like him because he does their bidding. But nothing changes the fact that Analytics and I refuted his nonsense. He said government cannot create wealth, and then he was foreced to take that back. He said the CRA was a primary cause of the housing boom, and since then virtually every expert on the subject had refuted that with all the available evidence to teh contrary. My link detailed this, and all you did was keep appealing to his authority, as if he ever had any to begin with.
2. Who funds Media Matters Kevin?

Media Matters does not pretend to be a News organization relying on fair and balanced reporting. MM for America researches claims made by the Right and shows why they are wrong. This isn't rocket science. FOX News is terrified of them, and for good reason. It is why they absolutely refuse to debate the points they made, nor will they ever allow a debate to take place on their show.
Now, as any educated person who has followed this issue knows full well, virtually all the jobs "saved" have been government jobs

Repeating the same stupid comment over and over doesn't help you look smarter, it just reinforces your stupidity. If you weren't so stupid, you'd know this. More than a million private sector jobs were created last year alone. You're telling me this represents a tiny fraction of all the jobs saved or created?
(and especially those heavily unionized) and that only trivial quantities of new private sector jobs have been created at all.

LOL! Typical droops. Now that you've been refuted on your initial statement, you have to backpeddle and qualigy it by saying, "but but but those are mostly unionized jobs!" So suddenly private sector jobs aren't private sector jobs if the employees are unionized? Yes, you're an idiot. Not that you've established your assertion that they are mostly unionized, it wouldn't matter anyway. Your Right Wing hatred of the union folks is well noted. How dare they try to bargain and negotiate for workers rights and decent wages. What a bunch of losers they must be. Those kinds of rights and privileges should be left to entreprenuers and CEOs only, right?
Indeed, a quick check of the empirical facts shows that some 1.8 private sector jobs -net - have been lost over the last two years, and unemployment still hovers near 9%

At least it is hovering -which is precisely what the stimulus intended to do - whereas under Bush it was dropping like a rock with no end in sight. The rate is at 8.8% which is essentially bringing it back down to what it was before Obama's policies ever took effect. That, by any definition of the term, is "positive progress."
Hmmm. Let's look at Kevin's sources and see what we have. In the two years since the stimulus, 1.8 million private sector jobs were lost (for comparison, as of Oct. 2009, just 8 months after the stimulus was signed into law, according to the BLS the economy had lost some 2.7 million jobs across the private and public sectors)

Sure, it had been losing millions of jobs since Bush took office. It was on a downward spiral. That you would expect a "quick fix" from the stimulus shows your ignorance or both economics and what was expected by the stimulus. Again, for the third time, the stimulus was intended to halt that downward trend, or at the very least create a leveling off, which is did from every angle. Obama has always said that a full recovery could last much longer than a decade.
I see not a single source referenced in the CBS article supporting the claim of a million private sector jobs created,

Which makes it equal to your numerous reference-free posts to the contrary, except that this was written by a real economist, whereas your posts are written by an uneducated hack who speaks only because he likes to listen to himself.
You wish to compare 674,000 to 1.8 million? Fine with me.

Are you really this stupid? There were 674,000 fewer private sector jobs at the end of Bush's term. You're referring to 1.8 million lost jobs without balancing that with the jobs gained. Jobs are constantly being lost all the time. All you're doing is adding them up without incorporating the jobs added. The result is that there are more private sector workers since Obama has been elected. That's why the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.8%. When Bush took office the unemployment rate was somewhere around 4%. That had doubled by the time he left.
Yes, we all know that. So what. I'm not here to defend Bush and never have been.

I'm not asking you to defend Bush, but the fact is Bush pushed the economy over a cliff as he walked out of the back door, and you're expecting Obama to do miracles in just a couple of years. What really pisses you guys off so much is the fact that teh stimulus did precisely what it was expected to do. In short, the Keynesian plan worked, as it did during the Great Depression. The world's authority on Depressions, Ben Bernanke - a conservative economist no less - is the one who led the charge in that direction. Obama simply followed teh advice of the majority of economists who strongly urged action in that direction. Again, you're just pissed because it worked. The only way you can attack this is by changing the argument, and saying it didn't work because it didn't do all kinds of crap Obama never said it was going to do in the first place. That is intellectual dishonesty on your part as well as those whom you adore. The Right has been ind efense mode ever since the unemployment rate started dropping. You can't handle the good news, because you don't want good news. Proving your precious "conservative" doctrine of Right Wing economic poliy is more important to you than the well being of this country.
In two years, the economy has continued to bottom out, and is showing only very weak signs of recovery. The small signs of recovery that exist have yet to be empirically connected to anything the government has done, and may represent nothing less than the inherent resiliency of the free market economy and its vast, complex infrastructure.

This is why you will forever be considered an idiot. No one who knows anything about economics will say, with a straight face, that the economic nosedive that had taken place under Bush, leveled off by a miracle, despite the "socialistic" policies that were implemented by Obama. All you can do really is complain because they recovery isn't going fast enough. Well, is going as fast as can be expected. Every President overshoots his goals when implementing new economic policiy, so it is hardly surprising that we're still struggling. But to continue to complain about Obama as you have, just shows how out of touch you are with the gravity of the situation. You do not want to accept just how bad it was before he took over. Go ahead and provide me an example in history where the unemployment rate doubled within the final 18 months of a second term president, and also when the federal deficit jumped more than 800% over the previous eight years (from $200 billion surplus to $1.5 trillion deficit) And then tell me how the succeeding President fixed that situation. What Obama was handed was an mess of unprecedented measure. And all you folks on the Right have done is bitch and moan, trying to inject hostility and fear into the public psyche, because as I said, your religion of Conservatism is more important to you than the well being and prosperity of the country. You want this to happen with a Conservative President, but the thing is, it never has.

This is a simply a flat footed prevarication. I've already shown, and 30 seconds on Google looking at official government sources will show, that unemployment had expanded by some 2.7 million jobless just within the first year of the stimulus. Here, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the breakdown for 2009, post stimulus:

You're avoiding unemployment rates, for a reason. Do you really think anyone here is so stupid to not know what you're trying to do here? It is dishonest to say the least. Unemployment rates leveled off in November and December of 2009.
On top of this, Obama and the Democrats have ballooned the 9 trillion dollar federal debt left to us by Bush and the combined Republican/Democratic congress of the 2000s into a 15 trillion and rising nightmare in which spending levels have soared and intensified well over those of the Bush 8 years, as bad as spending was at that time.

Yes, spending is part of the Keynesian approach. And it has worked in the past, which is why they're doing it. It isn't because they like to spend, it is because they're trying to save the economy. You attribute evil intentions when the fact is most economists today hold to the Keynesian school, and more are converting to it based on recent events. But suddenly you folks care about the deficit? ROFL! Reagan, and both Bush's did nothing but explode the deficit. You didn't care AT ALL. Cheyney said "deficits don't matter". Hell we didn't have hardly any deficit for decades until America elected its "Conservative" Icon. At that point it exploded, never to return until Clinton took over and brought us back to surplus.
Bush and his policies, as much criticism as can be leveled at them, were not the cause of the initial economic meltdown.

So much for not defending Bush. I knew you had it in you. Unfortunately you're even more ignorant of the cause of the crisis than you are of the recovery. I've demonstrated this numerous times in the previous threads, and you know this.
Clearly not, because the massive unemployment, inflation, and poor economic performance at that time were the remaining effects of an orgy of Keynesian credit and money manipulation, high taxes, price controlling, protectionism, and out of control government spending that began with the Great Society and then expanded dramatically under Nixon and ended with the beginning of the virtual Europeanization of the American economy under Carter, which Obama and the present Democrat party has picked up and continued with a vengeance.

Did you inhale at all during that rant?

Are you so stupid that you think the economy Reagan inherited was worse than teh one Obama inherited? Even if you are right and it was bad under Carter due to all the Keynesian evilness, it doesn't change the fact that Reagan was not able to control unemployment until his third year, and he ended up raising taxes six times throughout his tenure, which is six more times than our current "socialist" President. LOL!
Face it Droops, you've never been able to respond to the fact that deficits are always outrageous under Conservative Presidents. The graphs I provide are not based on lies, they are based on solid data. Clinton reduced Reagan and Bush's deficit dramatically, and then Bush II blew it up again. And to expect Obama to fix the problem while inheriting an unemployment rate that was doubling every 18 months, while dealing with a 1.5 trillion deficit, is nothing short of idiotic.
_Droopy
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Posts: 9826
Joined: Mon May 12, 2008 4:06 pm

Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _Droopy »

The link you provided in response to my point dates to Jan 2009, the same month Obama entered office.


I provided the following links regarding your claim that the vast majority of economists support the stimulus:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/ ... 9532.shtml

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/ ... 9532.shtml

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/economis ... -stimulus/

http://www.speaker.gov/UploadedFiles/Bo ... 3-11-1.pdf

The sources span early 2009 to just a couple of months ago. Your claim has no empirical basis, period, and as it is nothing more than an argumentum ad populum, it carries no evidential or logical weight.

Only those from the far Right with the same ideological agenda.


Which is to say, only those on the Left with the same ideological agenda support others on the Left, which is a monumental triviality.

They like him because he does their bidding. But nothing changes the fact that Analytics and I refuted his nonsense. He said government cannot create wealth, and then he was forced to take that back.


What Sowell said was that under certain narrow, specific conditions, government can be said, in some sense, to create wealth. What were those specific conditions Kevin?

He said the CRA was a primary cause of the housing boom, and since then virtually every expert on the subject had refuted that with all the available evidence to the contrary.


Well, once again, bare assertion, supported by no evidence or logical argument, passes for critical thought. The CRA was a primary precipitating cause of the economic meltdown, among a number of causes, some of long duration, and all centered in Leftist government policy, of which the entire "affordable housing" body of programs and policies, including the CRA, were an important part of the straw that broke the camel's back.

My link detailed this, and all you did was keep appealing to his authority, as if he ever had any to begin with.


Why is it every time I follow your links and read what they have to say, they don't comport well with what you claim for them, or, when they do, we see that the sources themselves are deeply suspect?


Media Matters does not pretend to be a News organization relying on fair and balanced reporting. MM for America researches claims made by the Right and shows why they are wrong. This isn't rocket science. FOX News is terrified of them, and for good reason. It is why they absolutely refuse to debate the points they made, nor will they ever allow a debate to take place on their show.


Media Matters has substantial ties to Soros associated or funded affiliates, including MoveOn.org, The Center for American Progress, and the New Democratic Network, not to mention the Democracy Alliance, a consortium of some 100 of the nations wealthiest left-wing financiers who's mission is to fund leftist think tanks and partisan propaganda websites such as Media Matters, which as of the present, has received at least 7 million from DA.

In other words, people who have money, on the Left or Right, fund people who agree with them.

Try stating something that isn't trivial when you aren't stating something that's banal.

More than a million private sector jobs were created last year alone.


Your sources make this claim, but provide no data or references in support. But let's assume this is correct. As we are speaking here of the use of government money, specifically, phantom money created out of thin air and injected into the economy through the central banks as low interest loans, grants, and wages/salaries (as opposed to private money created through previous productive economic activity, part of which is then reinvested in the expansion of existing activity or in new business ventures) in what sense can such private sector job creation be said to be really private sector, and as no new net wealth creation takes place in such a circular, closed economic structure, in what sense can there be said to be any real benefit to the economy as a whole, and in the long term, especially as the side effects of such government money creation and dissemination - spiraling inflation and catastrophic government debt - begin bearing down on that very same economy?

So suddenly private sector jobs aren't private sector jobs if the employees are unionized?


The vast majority of union jobs saved or created have been in the public sector among public sector unions, which now represent around 40% of all unionized workers. The problem here is that virtually the entire stimulus is a political slush fund to politically reliable constituencies, who have received the vast lion's share of the money.

As you many have noticed, the longstanding rapacious union demands regarding pay, benefits, and especially pensions was a major aspect of the meltdown of GM and Chriysler, and public sector employees per se are already a net drain on the national economy. Those workers produce nothing of any value that anyone desires to trade some of his medium of exchange for, and exist exclusively on the backs of the productive sector.

Not that you've established your assertion that they are mostly unionized, it wouldn't matter anyway.


Well, as you like to say, yes, your an idiot. This is well established common knowledge, as a few minutes online doing your own homework would demonstrate, were you so inclined.

Your Right Wing hatred of the union folks is well noted.


Is it? Well imagine that...

How dare they try to bargain and negotiate for workers rights and decent wages. What a bunch of losers they must be. Those kinds of rights and privileges should be left to entreprenuers and CEOs only, right?


Leaving aside the nebulous concept of "workers rights," the free, competitive market is the source, and the only legitimate determinant, of wage rates and salary levels.

At least in a free, civilized society in which all are assumed to be equal under the law.

At least it is hovering -which is precisely what the stimulus intended to do - whereas under Bush it was dropping like a rock with no end in sight. The rate is at 8.8% which is essentially bringing it back down to what it was before Obama's policies ever took effect. That, by any definition of the term, is "positive progress."


That's right Kevin, lower the bar far enough and any policy can be considered to be a success.


There were 674,000 fewer private sector jobs at the end of Bush's term. You're referring to 1.8 million lost jobs without balancing that with the jobs gained. Jobs are constantly being lost all the time. All you're doing is adding them up without incorporating the jobs added. The result is that there are more private sector workers since Obama has been elected.


Graham, 3.3 million jobs lost by the end of 2009, and 1.8 private sector jobs at the end of the plan's first two years. Those are the hard, empirical facts. The question still remains, what jobs have been gained and can those jobs be considered real jobs; can they be considered actual net gains to the economy as a whole, or just net gains to specific, targeted sectors of the economy at the expense of the economy as a whole?

in other words, is this really economic growth?

but the fact is Bush pushed the economy over a cliff


Bush and the Republican congress, especially in his second term, did his fair share in helping to push it over that cliff, but this statement, as it stands, is deeply misleading. Other forces were at work, including the CRA and its effects on almost the entire mortgage lending industry, Fannie and Freddie, the bundling of hundreds of billions in toxic paper and the spreading of it throughout the economy, and our entire debt, inflation, anti-savings, spending obsessed monetary and fiscal policy.

What really pisses you guys off so much is the fact that the stimulus did precisely what it was expected to do. In short, the Keynesian plan worked, as it did during the Great Depression.


The New Deal caused and maintained the "Great Depression" Kevin. You are far too unread and uninformed on the relevant scholarship and analysis here to be wading even into the baby pool on this issue.

The world's authority on Depressions, Ben Bernanke - a conservative economist no less - is the one who led the charge in that direction.


Enough comic relief. Bernake is not the world's authority on any economic issue, nor can he remotely be conceived as a movement conservative intellectual.

This is why you will forever be considered an idiot. No one who knows anything about economics will say, with a straight face, that the economic nosedive that had taken place under Bush, leveled off by a miracle, despite the "socialistic" policies that were implemented by Obama.


The economy didn't take a nosedive under Bush. It began a clear and precipitous decline while Bush was in the White House, and Bush did help, in some ways, in pushing it in that direction. But the actual nosedive, precipitated by the collapse of the mortgage lending industry due to wholly non-rational, uneconomic, politically motivated economic policy in this area, the implosion of several major auto makers due to unsustainable union rapaciousness, especially in the area of pension liabilities, and wild, out of control government spending and catastrophic debt creation, hit the fan just as Bush left office. All Obama has done is turn a fire hose pumping high octane gasoline on an already ferocious brush fire.

All you can do really is complain because they recovery isn't going fast enough. Well, is going as fast as can be expected.


What recovery? The tiny hints of recovery that exist can neither be explained by the stimulus program or be considered as signs of long term trends. We don't know what is going to happen, except that the entire economy is heading toward unambiguous collapse in a titanic mountain of debt composed of phantom money that didn't even exist before the Fed created it and handed it to the government.

You do not want to accept just how bad it was before he took over.


I already have, many times, going all the way back to Roosevelt and, before him, Hoover.
You're avoiding unemployment rates, for a reason. Do you really think anyone here is so stupid to not know what you're trying to do here? It is dishonest to say the least. Unemployment rates leveled off in November and December of 2009.


They may have, in those two arbitrarily chosen months. However:

Image

Look at the almost vertical climb of the unemployment rate since 2009. Its now 2011 Kevin, not December 2009.
Last edited by Guest on Fri Apr 22, 2011 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Theory of Capitalism collapses

Post by _Brackite »

Here is what Kevin Graham wrote on another Thread around here:

The articles I gave you explained why, but for some strange reason you think the Right wing blogosphere is more trustworthy than the nonpartisan factcheck.org.



viewtopic.php?p=399080#p399080



Now we have established the fact that factcheck.org is a nonpartisan web site from Kevin Graham.

The Following Article is from factcheck.org about President Barack Obama’s Budget speech:

FactChecking Obama’s Budget Speech

The president went too far in his critique of the House Republicans' deficit-reduction plan.

April 15, 2011

Updated: April 18, 2011



Summary

President Barack Obama misrepresented the House Republicans’ budget plan at times and exaggerated its impact on U.S. residents during an April 13 speech on deficit reduction.

Obama claimed the Republicans’ "Path to Prosperity" plan would cause "up to 50 million Americans … to lose their health insurance.” But that worst-case figure is based in part on speculation and assumptions.
He said the GOP plan would replace Medicare with "a voucher program that leaves seniors at the mercy of the insurance industry." That’s an exaggeration. Nothing would change for those 55 and older. Those younger would get federal subsidies to buy private insurance from a Medicare exchange set up by the government.
He said "poor children," "children with autism" and "kids with disabilities" would be left "to fend for themselves." That, too, is an exaggeration. The GOP says states would have "freedom and flexibility to tailor a Medicaid program that fits the needs of their unique populations." It doesn’t bar states from covering those children.
He repeated a deceptive talking point that the new health care law will reduce the deficit by $1 trillion. That’s the Democrats’ own estimate over a 20-year period. The Congressional Budget Office pegged the deficit savings at $210 billion over 10 years and warned that estimates beyond a decade are "more and more uncertain."
He falsely claimed that making the Bush tax cuts permanent would give away "$1 trillion worth of tax cuts for every millionaire and billionaire." That figure — which is actually $807 billion over 10 years — refers to tax cuts for individuals earning more than $200,000 and couples earning more than $250,000, not just millionaires and billionaires.
He said the tax burden on the wealthy is the lowest it has been in 50 years. But the most recent nonpartisan congressional analysis showed that the average federal tax rate for high-income taxpayers was lower in 1986.

For more about the president’s deficit-reduction speech, please read our Analysis section.


Analysis

This week, President Barack Obama laid out his ideas on how to curb the growing deficit over the next decade and more — and he spent much of the afternoon speech at George Washington University criticizing a deficit-reduction plan, called "Path to Prosperity," released by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. But his critique strayed at times from the facts.

Medicaid Assumptions

The president made several claims about the Republicans’ proposal for Medicare, Medicaid and the health care law. Obama claimed that the plan would cause "up to 50 million Americans … to lose their health insurance." But that figure is partly based on speculation and assumptions.

Obama, April 13: It’s a vision that says up to 50 million Americans have to lose their health insurance in order for us to reduce the deficit. Who are these 50 million Americans? Many are somebody’s grandparents — may be one of yours — who wouldn’t be able to afford nursing home care without Medicaid. Many are poor children. Some are middle-class families who have children with autism or Down’s syndrome. Some of these kids with disabilities are — the disabilities are so severe that they require 24-hour care. These are the Americans we’d be telling to fend for themselves.

The White House told us that 34 million of the 50 million people the president referenced would be covered under the new health care law, but Ryan’s proposal largely repeals the legislation. That means those persons wouldn’t be covered. Technically, those currently uninsured individuals don’t have insurance to lose, but certainly the Republican plan would be expected to cover tens of millions fewer than current law. What about the other 16 million?

To come up with that, the administration speculated on what states might do when faced with fewer federal Medicaid funds, as the Republican proposal stipulates. Under the Ryan plan, the federal government would spend an estimated $150 billion less on Medicaid in 2021. The administration figures that’s a 19 percent reduction in Medicaid spending, which, the administration assumes, would lead the states to spend less on Medicaid. It then assumes that there would be a corresponding 19 percent reduction in enrollment in 2021, which it says would be 15 million people.

That’s a whole lot of assuming.

The Ryan proposal would give states block grants – in lieu of the current federal matching funds — which would go up each year based on population and the consumer price index for urban consumers. It also eliminates money for acute care services for elderly Medicaid recipients. States would get less money than they are expected to under current law, and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says they’ll have to make tough budgeting decisions. But that’s a far cry from saying 15 million Medicaid enrollees won’t be covered.

CBO says the plan would reduce federal Medicaid spending by 35 percent in 2022 and more in future years. It says states "could" limit eligibility, but that measure is among several other possibilities to make up for the loss of federal dollars. And the CBO adds that "to some extent" rising health care costs "would cause states to implement such changes anyway."

CBO, April 5: Because of the magnitude of the reduction in federal Medicaid spending under the proposal, however, states would face significant challenges in achieving sufficient cost savings through efficiencies to mitigate the loss of federal funding. To maintain current service levels in the Medicaid program, states would probably need to consider additional changes, such as reducing their spending on other programs or raising additional revenues. Alternatively, states could reduce the size of their Medicaid programs by cutting payment rates for doctors, hospitals, or nursing homes; reducing the scope of benefits covered; or limiting eligibility. To some extent, under CBO’s long-run projections, the rise in health care costs under current law would cause states to implement such changes anyway. However, given the size of the reduction in federal spending under the proposal, the magnitude of the changes would probably have to be greater.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how states would react in 10 years to Ryan’s proposal. The same goes for how states will cope with rising health costs. The administration’s 15 million figure is speculation, and so are Obama’s claims that "poor children," "children with autism" or "kids with disabilities" would be left "to fend for themselves." The Ryan plan in no way says that states don’t have to cover such individuals. Instead it says that states would have "freedom and flexibility to tailor a Medicaid program that fits the needs of their unique populations."

Medicare Exaggerations

Obama also had plenty to say about the GOP plan’s impact on Medicare. He said it "ends Medicare as we know it” and went on to characterize it as “a voucher program that leaves seniors at the mercy of the insurance industry, with a shrinking benefit to pay for rising costs.”

Saying the plan throws the elderly to “the mercy of the insurance industry” is an exaggeration and ignores elements of the plan that require insurance companies to cover all seniors and to charge the same rate based on age. The Ryan plan is a fundamental change in the way Medicare works, however.

Here’s what Ryan proposes:

For those 55 or older by the end of this year, Medicare stays the same. They can remain on the traditional Medicare program as it is.
Starting in 2022, the system would change. New enrollees would get what Ryan calls “a premium-support payment” to help them purchase private insurance on a new Medicare exchange. Carriers participating in the exchange would have to offer certain standard benefits, cover anyone who applied, and would be required to charge the same rate for those of the same age.
The average “premium-support payment” would be $8,000 for 65-year-olds in 2022, which is about the same amount CBO projects the government will spend per 65-year-old that year. Upper-income folks won’t get the full amount – the top 8 percent in terms of income distribution would have to pay a greater percentage of their premium costs.
Obama calls this a “shrinking benefit,” but Ryan’s plan calls for the government payments to increase based on increasing age of the recipient and the CPI-U (consumer price index for all urban consumers). The plan would, however, require beneficiaries to pay more for their health care than under current law.
The government would also set up medical savings accounts for certain low-income individuals, with the first annual federal contribution at $7,800.
The Ryan plan also gradually increases eligibility for Medicare to age 67 by 2033.
Obama calls the Medicare payment a “voucher,” while Ryan maintains in his proposal that “[t]his is not a voucher program, but rather a premium-support model.” We’ll steer clear of a semantic debate between politicians. It’s accurate to say this is a government subsidy that would be paid directly to the insurance plan that a senior chooses.

Obama went on to say that seniors wouldn’t get “guaranteed health care” and if the “voucher isn’t worth enough to buy the insurance that’s available in the open marketplace, well, tough luck -– you’re on your own.”

It’s false to say seniors would be in the “open marketplace." Instead, they would buy coverage through the Medicare exchange Ryan envisions. And as we said, the private insurance companies in the exchange would be required to cover any eligible senior who wanted insurance.

It is true, according to a CBO analysis, that seniors would pay more under the Ryan plan than under current law. The Ryan plan saves the government money but shifts a greater financial responsibility to Medicare beneficiaries. CBO said:

CBO, April 5: To summarize, a typical beneficiary would spend more for health care under the proposal than under CBO’s long-term scenarios for several reasons. First, private plans would cost more than traditional Medicare because of the net effect of differences in payment rates for providers, administrative costs, and utilization of health care services, as described above. Second, the government’s contribution would grow more slowly than health care costs, leaving more for beneficiaries to pay.

Obama claimed that 10 years from now, 65-year-olds would “have to pay nearly $6,400 more” for Medicare coverage. That’s an accurate reflection of what CBO estimated. (See Figure 1, and calculate the beneficiary’s costs based on an $8,000 government contribution in 2022.)

The president implied that not everyone would be able to afford insurance under this system, and CBO does say that because of the added costs “some individuals would therefore choose not to purchase insurance.” It makes no estimate of how many would forego coverage.

Of course, Obama agrees that the government has to find ways to curb Medicare spending. But it’s unclear what exactly those methods would be. He said: “We will slow the growth of Medicare costs by strengthening an independent commission of doctors, nurses, medical experts and consumers who will look at all the evidence and recommend the best ways to reduce unnecessary spending while protecting access to the services that seniors need.” He also called for saving money by getting generic drugs on the market more quickly and implementing “new incentives for doctors and hospitals to prevent injuries and improve results.”


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Link: http://factcheck.org/2011/04/factchecki ... et-speech/
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