The 2012 Election

[_Jason Bourne]

Ok. Just to be the contrarian because there are so many Obama lovers here, and by the way I don't think he has been a horrible president but he sure has not been a great or wonderful president, I will predict Romney with 290 electoral votes.

But I'm not putting any money on it.

[_krose]

(By the way, Ham Rove himself has an electoral map on his site that shows Obama winning it.)

I wonder if Rove and the Koch's might provide token (relatively speaking, probably tens of millions) support to Romney and instead focus considerable resources towards key Senate races as well as towards keeping the House. The past couple of years have shown that Obama can be neutralized as long as the Republicans control the House and have 41 warm bodies in the Senate.

I have definitely heard that as a serious possibility for Rove. But I think the Kochs, especially, have such a hatred for Obama that they can't resist.

I assume you've seen Colbert's hilarious Ham Rove routines. It kills me. Also, the way he takes apart the SuperPac nonsense is masterful. Sharpest political commentary on TV. (His performance at the Correspondents' Dinner was awesome.)

[_krose]

I would put the State of Arizona in the Safe Romney category.

Why? The polls there are within the margin of error, and the Latino gap is large.

I can see "leaning," but not safe by any means.

[_Bond James Bond]

I wonder if Rove and the Koch's might provide token (relatively speaking, probably tens of millions) support to Romney and instead focus considerable resources towards key Senate races as well as towards keeping the House. The past couple of years have shown that Obama can be neutralized as long as the Republicans control the House and have 41 warm bodies in the Senate.

I have definitely heard that as a serious possibility for Rove. But I think the Kochs, especially, have such a hatred for Obama that they can't resist.

I assume you've seen Colbert's hilarious Ham Rove routines. It kills me. Also, the way he takes apart the SuperPac nonsense is masterful. Sharpest political commentary on TV. (His performance at the Correspondents' Dinner was awesome.)

He aimed his wit at one of the Koch's during the recent Time Gala:

Of course, all of us should be honored to be listed on the TIME 100 alongside the two men who will be slugging it out in the fall: President Obama, and the man who would defeat him, David Koch.

Give it up everybody. David Koch.

Little known fact -- David, nice to see you again, sir.

Little known fact, David's brother Charles Koch is actually even more influential. Charles pledged $40 million to defeat President Obama, David only $20 million. That's kind of cheap, Dave.

Sure, he's all for buying the elections, but when the bill for democracy comes up, Dave's always in the men's room. I'm sorry, I must have left Wisconsin in my other coat.

I was particularly excited to meet David Koch earlier tonight because I have a Super PAC, Colbert Super PAC, and I am -- thank you, thank you -- and I am happy to announce Mr. Koch has pledged $5 million to my Super PAC. And the great thing is, thanks to federal election law, there's no way for you to ever know whether that's a joke.

By the way, if David Koch likes his waiter tonight, he will be your next congressman.

Read more: http://thepage.time.com/2012/04/25/clin ... z1tOYmTSr6

[_Bond James Bond]

I would put the State of Arizona in the Safe Romney category.

The only reason I put it as a toss up currently are these two polls:

Obama 42-40:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... Z_0425.pdf

Romney 42-40:

http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/rep ... p-arizona/

[_Brackite]

I would put the State of Arizona in the Safe Romney category.

Why? The polls there are within the margin of error, and the Latino gap is large.

I can see "leaning," but not safe by any means.

Link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... _president

I guarantee you that Mitt Romney will win the State of Arizona.
This is going to be a close Presidential race for the Nation.
The Republicans will retain control over the House of Representatives.

[_bcspace]

All Romney has to do is poll nationally slightly ahead of Obama to have a realistic chance. That is because a very large percentage of Democratic voters are concentrated in a few states and so, because of the electoral college (which is a check and balance on a few large states from controlling the rest), their votes are nullified.

Also notice that even California is in play for Romney right now with an average spread of about 5 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[_Bond James Bond]

All Romney has to do is poll nationally slightly ahead of Obama to have a realistic chance. That is because a very large percentage of Democratic voters are concentrated in a few states and so, because of the electoral college (which is a check and balance on a few large states from controlling the rest), their votes are nullified.

National polls have little to do with the election except to show the national feeling towards the candidate. Each state election is far more important and I always look at the election as 51 separate elections (counting the District of Columbia). Real Clear Politics currently has the election at (very close to my predictions):

Obama: 227
Romney: 170
Tossup: 141

That interactive map (linked below) allows you to search the collected poll average of each tossup state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Also notice that even California is in play for Romney right now with an average spread of about 5 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Real Clear Politics has California as an Obama lock with an average of four polls showing Obama at 57.8% to 34.3%.

Relevant link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2009.html

[_Bond James Bond]

I'm not sure about the Real Clear Politics' definition of a "lean" or a tossup state. They call Georgia a "lean" Romney despite an average 12 point lead for Romney. I'd call it a likely or a lock until it's within 10 points. RCP also calls Pennsylvania a "tossup" despite it going toward Obama by an average of 6 points. I'd call that a "lean" Obama. Less than five points either way is a true "tossup" in my opinion.

Georgia:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2150.html
Pennsylvania:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1891.html

According to RCP's polls I'd call the swing states:

Colorado-lean Obama
Pennsylvania-lean Obama
Ohio-lean Obama
Nevada-lean Obama
Iowa-tossup
New Hampshire-tossup
Virginia-tossup
Florida-tossup
North Carolina-lean Romney
Arizona-lean Romney
Missouri-lean Romney

All those tossups lean Obama in the average polls, but by between 2-5 points so I list them as tossups.

[_bcspace]

All Romney has to do is poll nationally slightly ahead of Obama to have a realistic chance. That is because a very large percentage of Democratic voters are concentrated in a few states and so, because of the electoral college (which is a check and balance on a few large states from controlling the rest), their votes are nullified.

National polls have little to do with the election except to show the national feeling towards the candidate.

As I pointed out, millions of leftwing votes are nullified which makes the toss-up state battles relevant.

Also notice that even California is in play for Romney right now with an average spread of about 5 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1171.html

Real Clear Politics has California as an Obama lock with an average of four polls showing Obama at 57.8% to 34.3%.

Relevant link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2009.html

I think I'll stick with my 2012 data over your 2009 data.