The Tyrannical Minority

[_honorentheos]

I do. It's why I'm personally quite satisfied with Pelosi focusing on the Ukraine attempt to undermine Biden and influence the 2020 election.

But you already see the pattern. For Trump supporters, it's one of those jumbled pictures you have to stare at to see the 3D image, but it never appears for them. They are the type that thinks everyone else is lying about it being there, and hence will never see it because their fallacious belief has cut off their own ability to look at it correctly.

I feel like we are caught in a loop here. There are people who are Trump's base who will never see an argument for impeachment as valid and necessary. That doesn't overlap with all people who have or currently do support Trump as President. That's overly, and dangerously, reductionist and simplistic us v. them. It's uncomfortably close to how Ajax types think on the other side. I would caution one away from it.

[_honorentheos]

At some point the Democrats need to pivot away from impeachment and deal with pocketbook issues. Impeacement makes Trump into a victim, unless there is something there when the big reveal finally happens. Even so, impeachment has worked politically as a proxy for who likes Trump or not and it may continue to lower his standing in the popularity polls. However, expect more raids like just happened so Trump can stand behind the flag as impeachment continues on. Maybe he will start wearing a military uniform the next time he does some operation then explains it to the media? He wanted to have the military parade a while back.

Anyway, the Democrats need to propose what the people want and not continue to act as Wall Street apologists. Maybe don't take their money? Maybe denounce Bill Clinton's third way? I think a platform of reducing the military budget and using the money to pay for things that will benefit the people would be a winner. Medicare for all seems popular. Using military money for college scholarships instead of bombs could be something young people would get excited about and then actually vote. The democrats could win in a landslide if they wanted to.

отвали товарищ

[_EAllusion]

However it may have been envisioned, impeachment is not a legal investigation in the sense the winner is the side that is able to capture the hearts and minds of the necessary segments of the American public to politically matter to the Senators deciding the outcome. Courage or cowardice, high minded or blinded, the reality is the case to be made is to the American people that what Trump has done is bad for them.

It's cowardice to think opening up the investigation to other areas that are just as bad or worse than Ukraine will result in the public turning against them, so better avoid it.

You have a group of people who were terrified of impeachment based on shoddy political analysis who were essentially forced by circumstances to go down that path and immediately saw an upswing in support. Then, after being handed a winning issue, they maintained their same fear. God forbid they lead the polls rather than trail them.

Whether or not the odds were always out there Trump would eventually take something too far, his own hubris would result in his undermining himself, and surrounding himself with sycophants would ultimately undermine his need for loyalty to protect himself because he no longer had people of principle working for him is another question. But it appears with the Ukraine scandal all three have finally overlapped. This one seems like it has the evidence, the sources, and the credibility to overcome the sense that witch hunts against political opponents are the norm in modern Washington and something is different this time.

The Ukraine scandal is not worse than what was in the Mueller report. It's not even worse than some acts the President has done in public. It's very bad, but this is a presidency that generates very bad news routinely. In fact, most of what is bad about the Ukraine story was already heavily suggested in prior news reports for weeks. What shifted is that it became a story in which mainstream press coverage, taking its cues from what Democrats are doing, debated it seriously as impeachable.

[_EAllusion]

Just out of curiosity. What changed about the electorate in 2012 compared to 2016? I didn't see many converts from the other side. Trump rallies certainly seemed to energize hard left protest and even violence. Did these people just stay home on election day?

Not too much. Donald Trump gained 1 point in two-party share and did worse than Romney overall, but made up for it with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein splitting votes. In the big scheme of things, it's a pretty small fluctuation election to election.

The shift towards Trump was primarily in working class whites who are more inclined to hold racist and sexist attitudes. That mostly explains the difference. Democratic voters staying home mattered, but they mattered much less than people who voted for Obama switching to Trump. It is, indeed, mostly converts.

The most likely reason that Biden outperforms other Democrats a little in head to heads with Trump this far out is that group tends to prefer Biden among Democrats.

[_honorentheos]

However it may have been envisioned, impeachment is not a legal investigation in the sense the winner is the side that is able to capture the hearts and minds of the necessary segments of the American public to politically matter to the Senators deciding the outcome. Courage or cowardice, high minded or blinded, the reality is the case to be made is to the American people that what Trump has done is bad for them.

It's cowardice to think opening up the investigation to other areas that are just as bad or worse than Ukraine will result in the public turning against them, so better avoid it.

You have a group of people who were terrified of impeachment based on shoddy political analysis who were essentially forced by circumstances to go down that path and immediately saw an upswing in support. Then, after being handed a winning issue, they maintained their same fear. God forbid they lead the polls rather than trail them.

Whether or not the odds were always out there Trump would eventually take something too far, his own hubris would result in his undermining himself, and surrounding himself with sycophants would ultimately undermine his need for loyalty to protect himself because he no longer had people of principle working for him is another question. But it appears with the Ukraine scandal all three have finally overlapped. This one seems like it has the evidence, the sources, and the credibility to overcome the sense that witch hunts against political opponents are the norm in modern Washington and something is different this time.

The Ukraine scandal is not worse than what was in the Mueller report. It's not even worse than some acts the President has done in public. It's very bad, but this is a presidency that generates very bad news routinely. In fact, most of what is bad about the Ukraine story was already heavily suggested in prior news reports for weeks. What shifted is that it became a story in which mainstream press coverage, taking its cues from what Democrats are doing, debated it seriously as impeachable.

It's not about worse. Al Capone did far worse things than tax evasion by a million miles. It's about knowing how to make a case that can stick and be effective. It's a social intelligence thing, not an intellectual thing.

[_honorentheos]

Just out of curiosity. What changed about the electorate in 2012 compared to 2016? I didn't see many converts from the other side. Trump rallies certainly seemed to energize hard left protest and even violence. Did these people just stay home on election day?

Not too much. Donald Trump gained 1 point in two-party share and did worse than Romney overall, but made up for it with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein splitting votes. In the big scheme of things, it's a pretty small fluctuation election to election.

The shift towards Trump was primarily in working class whites who are more inclined to hold racist and sexist attitudes. That mostly explains the difference. Democratic voters staying home mattered, but they mattered much less than people who voted for Obama switching to Trump. It is, indeed, mostly converts.

The most likely reason that Biden outperforms other Democrats a little in head to heads with Trump this far out is that group tends to prefer Biden among Democrats.

viewtopic.php?p=1085576#p1085576

Time to resurrect this I guess.

[_canpakes]

That's not what is going on.

Are you saying that the Mole People are not involved?

[_EAllusion]

It's not about worse. Al Capone did far worse things than tax evasion by a million miles. It's about knowing how to make a case that can stick and be effective. It's a social intelligence thing, not an intellectual thing.

What's making it "stick" is the fact that Democrats are seriously pursuing it. This has two effects. One, a lot of people in the public take their cues from what political leaders str doing. When Democrats weren't pursuing impeachment, there was a sizeable group who took that to mean that nothing impeachable occurred and people who are saying otherwise must be radicals. Two, this is bending coverage decisions in the press and forcing more coverage of the presidents acts and why people say they are bad into the ears and eyeballs of the public.

You get more of that, not less, but addressing other areas of malfeasance. This includes very closely related ones such as the President's parallel attempt to get China to manufacture a scandal against Biden or the President's illegal hiding of other international calls that contained, without a doubt, other bad things.

Avoiding this, in addition to shirking a moral duty to uphold the rule of law and Constitutional order, is bad politics brought about by cowardice.

[_honorentheos]

That's an odd read. The Mueller report got a black eye when he was brought in to testify despite the actual evidence being what it is, for a counter example you are overlooking.

This is a case where Trump handed the evidence to the public out of the gate and from there the inquiry has practically wrote itself. They now have a winning case and are building it.

[_Some Schmo]

I feel like we are caught in a loop here. There are people who are Trump's base who will never see an argument for impeachment as valid and necessary. That doesn't overlap with all people who have or currently do support Trump as President.

When I talk about Trump supporters, I'm talking exactly about the people "who will never see an argument for impeachment as valid and necessary." It's why I regularly distinguish them from all Trump voters.

And you have to face the fact that for the senate to consider conviction, that immovable base will need to move.