The Bell Curve

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_Gadianton
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Gadianton »

EA wrote:The primary source Hernstein and Murray relies on believes that "Negroids" have never contributed anything meaningful to civilization and left to their own devices are on average unable to function much above the level of a hunter-gatherer society.


Not to argue from a vacuum that one is superior to another, but isn't Murray's project the polar opposite of Jared Diamond's? Diamond seems to hold human rationality and ability across cultures relatively constant and looks for innovative geographical explanations to explain prosperity. I wonder what Diamond has missed in his assessments for not (and maybe I'm assuming too much about Diamond here) making cultural intelligence levels a key investigation?

The only reason I bring this up is that there's a certain Captain Obvious grain to arguments like Murray's. Once you admit that an average person can't just study his way to rival Einstein, then we're left wondering what kind of similar comparisons we can make between groups of people. Certainly, we'd have to admit that some groups will rank higher than others, and relative success and failures should depends to some degree on these rankings, right?

I'm just pointing out that it seems to me that Guns, Germs, and Steel has been at least as influential and intuitively compelling in explaining cultural successes and failures as TBC. My point is that to the extent we're sucked into Diamond's explanations, we're sucked into an explanatory framework that is agnostic towards the significance of IQ.
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_EAllusion
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _EAllusion »

Gadianton wrote:
Not to argue from a vacuum that one is superior to another, but isn't Murray's project the polar opposite of Jared Diamond's?


Yes, Jared Diamond's explanation for why civilizations evolved they way they did is the polar opposite of Richard Lynn's, which is who Murray relies on for dismissing the legacy of slavery on blacks in the US as explanatory for IQ gaps by citing his work on black African IQ. I believe Diamond presumes relative equivalence of intelligence across cultures while explaining differences in geographical resources and happenstance as the primary explanation for different outcomes in societies.

One of the papers in a book I have on the subject goes into detail explaining how blacks in America and South Africa had similar elevated tuberculosis rates due to similar social circumstances to refute this point. It gets quite technical, which I find humorous, because the proper reaction is "lol."
_honorentheos
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _honorentheos »

I was reading some Lee Smoking recently where pointed out the tools and data Galileo put to use to redefine something as obvious as the path of motion while falling was available for 1000 years. And there was no shortage of incredibly intelligent people who possessed the ability mentally to have brought humanity into the age where Newtonian Physics could have been discovered a thousand years earlier. But the cultural background at the time of Galileo was just as important to making that possible as having a Galileo was.

Point being, bringing Diamonds argument into this only makes sense if we were now flooding the world with previously undomesticatable species being brought to full domestication. Turns out being smart and advanced hadn't led to that result.
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_Analytics
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

Kishkumen wrote:At the risk of asking a question that has already been addressed, given the assumption that IQ tests tend to measure abilities tied to privilege and education, is it illegitimate to test people to see how well they would function in a particular system?

Granted, there may be no definitive measure for objective smarts. Maybe such a thing is, in fact, undesirable. However, the desire for efficiency places a demand on the system to identify agents with the greatest aptitude for carrying out its agenda. In a Western context, that will be a European cultural foundation, by and large. Yes? No?

Is it unjustifiable to seek efficiency in this way? If I want a group that runs with optimal efficiency to obtain the best outcome, will maximal diversity of approach result in optimal outcomes? Racism aside, is there any justification for a certain level of shared culture, or should we always seek diversity in every sense? Is that truly better?

I don’t know. A certain amount of diversity might be counterproductive . Another amount may be desirable over homogeneousness. I am not talking skin color here. I am talking culture; that comes from a tradition of a relatively (not totally) homogeneous ( in knowledge and practice) group perpetuating its tradition, its memes, its culture. It is not absolute. It always has a certain mix. But it remembers itself in a relatively historically coherent way.

I write as a classicist, who realizes his ignorance in the face of a tradition of great depth, complexity, and antiquity.


Murray gives somewhat mixed-messages on this. On the one hand, he argues that since people with higher IQs do perform better at work, it would in fact be economically efficient to allow employers to screen and hire based on IQ. Ironically, since IQ-testing job applicants is illegal, employers might be tempted to slyly hire on race because that is a visible trait that is statistically correlated with IQ. In other words, if we tested on IQ, employers would be free to be color blind, knowing they would be getting the best person, regardless of race.

On the other hand, he does think the country being stratified and divided by IQ is a new, major problem. He thinks that as far as our communities go, it would be socially desirable for people of all IQs to be neighbors, be friends with each other, go to church together, etc.
Last edited by Anonymous on Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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_Analytics
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

Gadianton wrote:
EA wrote:The primary source Hernstein and Murray relies on believes that "Negroids" have never contributed anything meaningful to civilization and left to their own devices are on average unable to function much above the level of a hunter-gatherer society.


Not to argue from a vacuum that one is superior to another, but isn't Murray's project the polar opposite of Jared Diamond's? Diamond seems to hold human rationality and ability across cultures relatively constant and looks for innovative geographical explanations to explain prosperity. I wonder what Diamond has missed in his assessments for not (and maybe I'm assuming too much about Diamond here) making cultural intelligence levels a key investigation?

The only reason I bring this up is that there's a certain Captain Obvious grain to arguments like Murray's. Once you admit that an average person can't just study his way to rival Einstein, then we're left wondering what kind of similar comparisons we can make between groups of people. Certainly, we'd have to admit that some groups will rank higher than others, and relative success and failures should depends to some degree on these rankings, right?

I'm just pointing out that it seems to me that Guns, Germs, and Steel has been at least as influential and intuitively compelling in explaining cultural successes and failures as TBC. My point is that to the extent we're sucked into Diamond's explanations, we're sucked into an explanatory framework that is agnostic towards the significance of IQ.

I like Diamond's way of thinking and believe he is right about many things. A major difference between GG&S and TBC is that GG&S is making inferences about global history based on scant and subtle evidence that is buried in the historical and geographical record. In contrast, TBC is based on a ridiculously rich amount of data--hundreds and hundreds of reproducible scientific studies.

I'm running out of time for several days, so this might be last post. As a conclusion, it's curious what EA has NOT done. He has NOT shown how you can take a group of Americans with an IQ one standard deviation below average, throw some money at the problem and/or bus them to better schools, and magically cause their IQ to raise to 100. And he has NOT shown that after controlling for racism, blacks and whites have equal IQs.

If American blacks with an IQ of 1 SD below average are at that range because of racism and American whites at that range are at that range because they are intrinsically dull, then it should be a lot easier to increase the IQ of this group of blacks than this group of whites. EA has NOT shown that this is the case.

I damned hate The Bell Curve and its implications about race. I really do. I get the racial implications. They damned suck. I don't like them. But if we weren't talking about such a sensitive and difficult topic as race and racism in America, the statistical validity of what Murray is attempting to do is undeniable. Why do blacks with low IQs have social outcomes similar to whites and Asians with low IQs? There are two possibilities:

1- Blacks with low IQs have low IQs and bad social outcomes because of racism. In contrast, whites and Asians with low IQs have low IQs and bad social outcomes because they are mentally dull.

2- IQ is a powerful statistical predictor of social outcomes, regardless of race.

When Murray says he thinks everybody should be treated with respect and dignity regardless of IQ and regardless of race, and that everybody should have the same access to opportunities without regard to race, I tend to believe he is being sincere.
Last edited by Anonymous on Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

One final point on the Africa paragraphs. When I said I “read” the book, I read it in the way I read text books—going a bit out of order, carefully reading main arguments, and skimming parts that seemed unimportant. I’ve spent enough time in the book to have read every single page, but I didn’t go through it in the chronological page-by-page way I’d read a Jack Reacher novel.

If you are taking what the book actually says at face value, then the paragraphs about Africa have nothing to do with the main point of the book. Nothing. On the other hand, if you are acting like a prosecuting attorney who is claiming that the book has an insidious purpose that is other than what it claims to be, of course you are going to focus on those paragraphs and claim that they are the entire point.

Here is what Murray says about the reaction to those three paragraphs about Africa in the Afterward:

The topic of African IQ is a tiny piece of The Bell Curve— three paragraphs on pp. 288– 289 intended to address a hypothesis Herrnstein and I heard frequently: The test scores of American blacks have been depressed by the experience of slavery and African blacks will be found to do better. We briefly summarize the literature indicating that African blacks in fact have lower test scores than American blacks.

Lane and Kamin assault this conclusion ferociously. We are an easy target. We say so little about African IQ that it is easy for Lane and Kamin to point to the many technical difficulties of knowing exactly what is going on. But we also omit many more details that make a strong case that African blacks have very low scores on standardized mental tests. Lane and Kamin want our sources to be weak and racist. That they are not bears importantly, if inconclusively, on possible genetic racial differences.

Blinded to that possibility by their seeming prejudgment of the issue, Lane and Kamin apparently are not worried about what will happen when their critiques lead other scholars to explore the studies that we cited. They should be. Even when samples of Africans are selected in ways that will tend to bias the results upward— for example, by limiting the sample to people who have completed primary school (many of the least able have dropped out by that time), people who are employed, or people who live in urban areas— and even when the tests involved are ones such as the Ravens Standard Progressive Matrices (SPM), designed for cross-cultural comparisons, devoid of any requirements of literacy or numeracy, the scores of African samples everywhere have been in the region of two standard deviations below European or East Asian means. The studies vary in quality, but some are excellent, and it is not the case that the better the study is, the higher the African score is found to be. On the contrary, some of the lowest scores have been found in the largest, most careful, and most recent studies.

To illustrate how troubling the results have been, let me turn to two studies postdating Richard Lynn’s review that we cite on p. 289. One was a South African study led by Kenneth Owen published in the refereed British journal Personality and Individual Differences. 17 Its sample consisted of enrolled seventh-grade students: 1,056 whites, 778 coloureds (mixed race), 1,063 Indians, and 1,093 blacks. The SPM was administered without time limits. Except for the Indians, subjects were tested by school psychologists of the same ethnic group. Owen presents the full psychometric profile for the test results (distributional characteristics, reliability, item difficulty, item discrimination, congruence coefficients, and discriminant analysis), demonstrating that the test was measuring the same thing for the various ethnic groups. The differences in test means, expressed in standard deviations, were as follows: Indian-white: −. 52; coloured-white: − 1.35; black-white: − 2.78. The second example of a recent, careful study was conducted by a black scholar, Fred Zindi, and published in the Psychologist. 18 It matched 204 black Zimbabwean pupils and 202 white English students from London inner-city schools for age (12— 14 years old), sex, and educational level, both samples being characterized as “working class.” Despite the fact that the white sample was well below average for the whites, with a mean IQ measured by the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised (WISC-R) of only 95, the black-white difference was 1.97 standard deviations on the SPM and 2.36 standard deviations on the WISC-R. Professor Zindi expressed the SPM results as IQ scores. The means for the Zimbabwean sample were 72 for the SPM and 67 for the WISC-R, consistent with Richard Lynn’s estimates. There is reason to think that the WISC-R score was somewhat depressed by language considerations but not much: The (nonverbal) performance IQ score of the Zimbabwean sample was only 70. What should one make of these results?

Above all, one must proceed cautiously in drawing conclusions, for all the reasons that kept us from presenting these results in detail in The Bell Curve. The problem is not, as often alleged, that such studies are written by racists (in the two instances just cited, a charge belied by Owen’s scholarly reputation and by Zindi’s race) but that the African story is still so incomplete. Our view was that the current differences will narrow over time, probably dramatically, as nutrition and the quality of schools for black Africans improve. Changes in black African culture may provide an environment more conducive to cognitive development among young children. But the current differences as measured through these samples as of the 1990s are not figments of anyone’s imagination. Lane, Kamin, and others who have attempted to discredit The Bell Curve by focusing on our “tainted sources” have ensured that the African data will get more attention.

Herrnstein, Richard J.; Murray, Charles. Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (A Free Press Paperbacks Book) (p. 565-566). Free Press. Kindle Edition.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

Japan is a fascinating country. As-of the year 1870, Japan had the same basic culture and technology that it had had for thousands of years. They were militantly opposed to outsiders interfering with their way of life.

Then, an American battleship pulled into Tokyo harbor, showed off its modern technology, and essentially said the United States would invade Japan if they didn't start trading with us. Japan complied and allowed Americans to create a trading outpost in Yokohama. A couple of decades later, Japan decided it needed to absndon the Shogun system and embrace the modrtn world. In just a few decades they transformed themselves from a medieval society to a modern, first-world society.

Since World War II, most Asian countries have pulled up themselves by their own bootstraps, and most African countries have not. What is Jared Diamond's explanation for this?
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

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Re: The Bell Curve

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honorentheos wrote:Other that because we like metrics, why should one privilege IQ as the measure of performance and how we ought to value education or anything at all? Just curious.

The major point of the book is that IQ does a fantastic job of predicting seemingly every socioeconomic outcome you can think of. The largest sextion of the book, and the least disputed chapters, are dedicated to this. That is shy it matters.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

EAllusion wrote:
Education matters. The amount of time studying matters, and the quality of education matters. It all matters a lot. Therefore, it should all be well funded.


That's a wishful reading. The relative difference in quality of education does not matter all that much according to the material you are supporting. I already quoted you quoting it saying exactly that, so I'm not sure what else can be done to point this out. The argument is more extensive in the book about quality of education, narrowly construed, having minimal effect...


I think we are at an impasse for two reasons. First, since you are usually right, you aren't very good at considering the possibility that you might be wrong about something. You have the right to be arrogant about such things, but it does make communication difficult.

Second, you interpret everything Murray says through your hostile sources and don't believe he says anything or means anything that doesn't conform to that boogeyman.

Here is the thing. Your point on this makes a lot of sense if one believes that the ONLY thing that matters about school and school spending is some sort of cost-reward calculation on the marginal return of IQ per dollar spent.

I believe marginal IQ scores aren't the only thing that matter in life.

Now that we have clarified that subtle point, consider what I actually said. If the difference in cost between a quality education and a mediocre one is $5,000 per student per year and results in a marginal benefit of raising the average IQ by only 2 points, that doesn't mean there are no other important benefits of a good education.

If you can't comprehend why somebody might think that, then we are stuck.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_Analytics
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Re: The Bell Curve

Post by _Analytics »

[duplicate]

I apologize for the typos in the various posts. I am writing these posts on a cell phone on a bumpy bus ride near the Bolivia-Argentina border. Cell service is spotty.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
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