Russia Likely Did Swing Votes For Donald Trump

[_Markk]

... there is no dispute that construction wages are down in the private sector, and in union and publicly funded projects everyone's wages are mandated buy collective bargaining agreements. I was making as much or more in 1978 as a 20 year old kid, than we pay immigrants today, doing the same job...that is just a fact.

If you're comparing today to the '70s then yeah, the same could be said for almost everyone. We've had this discussion. The cause is not immigration. It's wealth migration and some pretty dastardly conservative ideas that were implemented to most of our detriments that you ought to be blaming.

That said, I dispute that construction wages are down right now compared to a year ago, at least here in the Phoenix area. Material costs are up, labor is hard to find, bidders are bidding high to deal with the labor shortage...and the reporting supports my anecdotal perspective as well as what contractors are telling me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/busi ... eport.html

I was not comparing this year with last...I was comparing private wages are at around the same level as they were years ago, without adjustment for inflation. And it is directly becasue immigrants will work for less...it is not hard to understand. And what I did not address is that QC is down the drain.

What are some of the other "jobs" that wages are close to what they were 20 years or more ago?

[_Kevin Graham]

The studies cited in the chapter are here:

Rethinking the Effects of Immigration on Wages

Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?

The White House Council of Economic Advisers concluded in a 2007 report that roughly 90 percent of native-born workers experience wage gains from immigration, which total between $30 billion and $80 billion per year.

This chapter is also helpful: Immigration's Effects on Jobs and Wages: Empirical Evidence

[_honorentheos]

I was not comparing this year with last...I was comparing private wages are at around the same level as they were years ago, without adjustment for inflation. And it is directly becasue immigrants will work for less...it is not hard to understand. And what I did not address is that QC is down the drain.

What are some of the other "jobs" that wages are close to what they were 20 years or more ago?

Here's an old article that described the problem just before the recession really hit home:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/weeki ... telle.html

The high point came in the 1970s, just as the United States was beginning to lose its controlling grip on the economies of the non-Communist world. Since then the percentage of people earning at least $20 an hour has eroded in every sector of the economy, falling last year to 18 percent of all hourly workers from 23 percent in 1979 — a gradual unwinding of the post-World War II gains.

Construction isn't an anomaly in this trend, Markk. It's also not the largest industry with lower paid immigrant labor in the US.

[_Themis]

When it comes to understanding immigration and it's economic affects wouldn't the economists be the best place to find out?

1) What makes you think any given economist that would study this issue is competent?

If you reread you may notice I said economists, not economist. The point is where would be likely to find the best information.

2) What makes you think they're not politically motivated?

I'm sure many have political opinions, and I never suggested they didn't.

3) How do you vet your economists that provide specific information on this specific regional issue to ascertain the above two questions?

By studying the subject and getting multiple sources.

[_Themis]

Well. I disagree. Themis is clearly saying that if an economist puts together a report it ought to be lent credence based off the fact that it's from an economist.

Well I said economists plural, and while we should have a healthy amount of skepticism we shouldn't ignore what the experts are saying just because it doesn't fit with what one wants to believe.

[_Markk]

Here's an old article that described the problem just before the recession really hit home:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/weeki ... telle.html

The high point came in the 1970s, just as the United States was beginning to lose its controlling grip on the economies of the non-Communist world. Since then the percentage of people earning at least $20 an hour has eroded in every sector of the economy, falling last year to 18 percent of all hourly workers from 23 percent in 1979 — a gradual unwinding of the post-World War II gains.

Construction isn't an anomaly in this trend, Markk. It's also not the largest industry with lower paid immigrant labor in the US.

I am half asleep, and I will read your link in depth tomorrow, along with what Kevin just posted...thanks...but ironically, what it seems to be saying is that wages are less. And yet... KG and EA are showing me links that claim because of illegal immigration wages are up? It reads something to the effect "that for high school graduates the 20 dollar an hour wage is going extinct." So which is it?

[_EAllusion]

No, I gave you real reasons why, and clear examples of why I disagree with you.

Such as? All you have done is cite anecdotes.

You made a assertion and have not offered any evidence.

I have pointed to such studies in the past and Kevin is currently doing so now.

I gave you clear objective reasons why I believe you are wrong... there is no dispute that construction wages are down in the private sector, and in union and publicly funded projects everyone's wages are mandated buy collective bargaining agreements. I was making as much or more in 1978 as a 20 year old kid, than we pay immigrants today, doing the same job...that is just a fact.

One of your confusions seems to be that you misunderstand the difference between pressures on wages and the absolute difference adjusted for inflation. What you'll find through the material being linked to you that you are ignoring/dismissing is that real median wage is relatively stagnant since the 1970's, but one of the things that has kept it from being worse is influx of immigrants into the country.

I can speak to what has specifically been going on in the construction sector in your specific area of the country in terms of wages, but you supplied zero reason to believe that immigration is determinant of stagnant price of labor beyond a raw expression of "They Turk Err Jerbs!"

Looking up some basic data on the subject, it appears there's been a massive decline in unionization in the field in the area in the time-frame you are talking about. That would be expected to come with downward pressure on the price of labor. Why do you not assume that is the cause given that you seem to think it's as simple as noting a change and declaring a cause that sounds plausible to you? Of course, it is possible that immigration has reduced the cost of construction labor. I haven't read a paper on the subject, but my first guess would be that it probably has if I had to guess. The lower construction costs have downstream benefits for everyone else which may in turn raise wages over baseline. You need something more systematic to determine what the overall impact on wages is besides "Gee, no one's gotten a raise in a while where I work." In other words, there's a difference between wage effects within a specific group of workers and indirect wage effects from how they are impacted. Again, see research.

Give me an example of how immigrants make wages higher? Better yet...give me the study that you have researched.

Are you asking how immigrants could improve wages?

Here is a chapter from a 2016 publication on the subject explaining underlying theory:

https://www.nap.edu/read/23550/chapter/8#173

Well, here in So CA it is fairly easy to tell a immigrant, illegal or with a green card from south of the border...the first hint is that they don't speak English. I deal with workers that I can't even communicate with EA. I need to have a worker that speaks English translate clearly. I learned years ago that even when you think some know English, or my broken Spanglish, and you give them direction, more times or not it costs the company money. If you want examples, please ask.

Lol. I deal with plenty of workers whose English skills are highly suspect. It's a source of frustration for me, as I do not believe that agencies supporting the cognitively disabled should be hiring caregivers who lack the ability to understand the language of the people they are supporting. This doesn't mean they are undocumented, though, as English proficiency isn't a requirement of an immigrant. If ICE routinely gets it wrong spotting an illegal immigrant "just from looking" I suspect maybe that you aren't actually as gangbusters at it as you might think. Which is great for the people you stand in silent judgment of.

[_Markk]

No, I gave you real reasons why, and clear examples of why I disagree with you.

Such as? All you have done is cite anecdotes.

You made a assertion and have not offered any evidence.

I have pointed to such studies in the past and Kevin is currently doing so now.

I gave you clear objective reasons why I believe you are wrong... there is no dispute that construction wages are down in the private sector, and in union and publicly funded projects everyone's wages are mandated buy collective bargaining agreements. I was making as much or more in 1978 as a 20 year old kid, than we pay immigrants today, doing the same job...that is just a fact.

One of your confusions seems to be that you misunderstand the difference between pressures on wages and the absolute difference adjusted for inflation. What you'll find through the material being linked to you that you are ignoring/dismissing is that real median wage is relatively stagnant since the 1970's, but one of the things that has kept it from being worse is influx of immigrants into the country.

I can speak to what has specifically been going on in the construction sector in your specific area of the country in terms of wages, but you supplied zero reason to believe that immigration is determinant of stagnant price of labor beyond a raw expression of "They Turk Err Jerbs!"

Looking up some basic data on the subject, it appears there's been a massive decline in unionization in the field in the area in the time-frame you are talking about. That would be expected to come with downward pressure on the price of labor. Why do you not assume that is the cause given that you seem to think it's as simple as noting a change and declaring a cause that sounds plausible to you? Of course, it is possible that immigration has reduced the cost of construction labor. I haven't read a paper on the subject, but my first guess would be that it probably has if I had to guess. The lower construction costs have downstream benefits for everyone else which may in turn raise wages over baseline. You need something more systematic to determine what the overall impact on wages is besides "Gee, no one's gotten a raise in a while where I work." In other words, there's a difference between wage effects within a specific group of workers and indirect wage effects from how they are impacted. Again, see research.

Give me an example of how immigrants make wages higher? Better yet...give me the study that you have researched.

Are you asking how immigrants could improve wages?

Here is a chapter from a 2016 publication on the subject explaining underlying theory:

https://www.nap.edu/read/23550/chapter/8#173

Well, here in So CA it is fairly easy to tell a immigrant, illegal or with a green card from south of the border...the first hint is that they don't speak English. I deal with workers that I can't even communicate with EAllusion. I need to have a worker that speaks English translate clearly. I learned years ago that even when you think some know English, or my broken Spanglish, and you give them direction, more times or not it costs the company money. If you want examples, please ask.

Lol. I deal with plenty of workers whose English skills are highly suspect. It's a source of frustration for me, as I do not believe that agencies supporting the cognitively disabled should be hiring caregivers who lack the ability to understand the language of the people they are supporting. This doesn't mean they are undocumented, though, as English proficiency isn't a requirement of an immigrant. If ICE routinely gets it wrong spotting an illegal immigrant "just from looking" I suspect maybe that you aren't actually as gangbusters at it as you might think. Which is great for the people you stand in silent judgment of.

LOL...Your so full of crap we have two different studies presented here...one stating that that immigrants make wages go up, and others that show wages are decreasing.

How about from a business perspective ... If I can pay a Mexican Immigrant, or out source with very low wages, and avoid paying and established citizen higher wages with benefits...what does that create EA. Then factor in that even if one wants to pay the higher wagers he can't compete with those offering the same product and service for less. This is like talking to Mopologists...it is a emperors new clothes scenario.

Your link is nothing more than a theory...which the author admits to, and is impossible to apply to real life...he or she even implies that when a immigrant replaces a native the wage goes down...theoretically of course, and it only goes up when native and immigrants work together.

So of the two studies here, which one is correct? I can find studies that disagree with your studies all day long EA...the bottom line is, I can call a contractor to do some work for me, and pay for his allowing overhead and profit, or I can go to Home Depot and pay 100 dollars a day cash money for a similar service. That the same goes for business...you can pay folks living wages that are established, or higher a immigrant that will work for less, and take bargaining power away from the native.

Do you have a government job?

Another reason to visit the real world would be so you can see that it is not real difficult to spot a immigrant here...especially when you grew up here and have friends that are illegal, wok with them , played sports with them, coached them , etc... I feel like I am Oliver Wendel Douglas, are you really that out of touch with what is happening in our country.

[_Kevin Graham]

Several studies have been produced for you Markk and you're still ignoring them. Instead you're going for the lowest hanging fruit by conflating a chapter from a book (which is a theory) with the studies (not theories). This is why even trying to have an honest discussion with you is pointless.

[_Kevin Graham]

How about from a business perspective ... If I can pay a Mexican Immigrant, or out source with very low wages, and avoid paying and established citizen higher wages with benefits...what does that create EAllusion.

It creates an incentive for Buford and Ray to get off their asses, try to get their GED and work hard for a living, as opposed to expecting society to hand them high pay/ low-skill labor on a silver platter simply because they had the dumb luck of being born on the right side of the Rio Grande.

You seem to be missing the fact, probably intentionally, that EA and I have only said wages decrease only for those without a HS education. Those are typically the people competing for these low skill jobs. And none of them are jobs with benefits.

I can find studies that disagree with your studies all day long EAllusion

No you can't. You've demonstrated minimal capacity for research, requesting that I literally take you by the hand and walk you through every link I've provided because you couldn't figure it out on your own. But now you're telling me you can cite your own studies "all day long" that will contradict these? You're just talking out of your anus again.