The 2012 Election

[_Ceeboo]

Wow, Bond, that was pretty impressive!


Peace,
Ceeboo

[_Bob Loblaw]

The only surprise for me was Florida, which I thought was moving toward Romney.

My biggest fear is that both parties are so much at odds that they will both allow the "fiscal cliff" to happen in the hopes of blaming it on the other party. I'm not worried about a second Obama term, but it does concern me that there is so much animosity on both sides. I get the feeling that Obama feels nothing but contempt for conservatives like me, and the Republicans in Congress hate Obama. Makes me feel a little alienated.

[_MCB]

Wow, Bond, that was pretty impressive!


Peace,
Ceeboo

AWW, no matter how much he denies it, he was getting guidance from Nate. Of course, replication has some validity.

[_Drifting]

It seems Clint really was talking to an empty chair...

[_Brackite]

United States presidential election, 2012:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta ... tion,_2012

[_Res Ipsa]

I posted this in another thread but I probably should have put it here:

If Ohio is the center of this election, then Hamilton county will likely determine which way Ohio goes. It's about 2/3 Republican (metro suburbs of Cincinnati) and 1/3 Democrat (urban Cincinnati). Obama won it in 2008 by a few thousand votes.

Total population 800,000 (a drop of 50,000 from the year 2000). Anecdotal word now coming out of polling stations predicts a 75-80% turnout in the Republican precincts there. Democrat precincts way down but no word of a percent.

The entire metro area encompasses 2,000,000+ people but the word is Hamilton county is the county to watch.

Looks like you were right about the county. http://boe.hamilton-co.org/pressreport/realtime.pdf Not surprising that Obama had the early vote advantage. Kind of surprising he also won the election day voting. Just goes to show that the plural of "anecdote" is not "data." Or somethin'

[_Bond James Bond]

Wow, Bond, that was pretty impressive!


Peace,
Ceeboo

AWW, no matter how much he denies it, he was getting guidance from Nate. Of course, replication has some validity.

I follow Nate Silver closely but he didn't start his predictions until May. But really was there any doubt about any of the states except Florida/Ohio/Virginia? The rest were called pretty quick last night.

[_Bond James Bond]

Some final election thoughts:

1) Don't trust Gallup and Rasmussen, trust PPP when it comes to polling:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/0 ... -pollsters

2) Seriously...don't trust the Republican pollsters. News from within the Romney campaign is that Romney really thought he was expanding the map and had a chance of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota...and then on election day lost all of them handily. He lost pretty handily in Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin. Ohio/Virginia/Florida/North Carolina were the only real nail biters.

3) Republicans better find some conciliatory angle with women and minorities. I suspect they won't and that in 2016 they'll go even further to the right in a death rattle for the Boomers, but the rational Republicans better do something. In ten years time if Democrats can continue to take minorities 80-20 they're going to be making states like Arizona and Texas and Montana swing states because of the growth of Hispanics.

4) The Civil War in the Republican party is going to be fun to watch. Will the Tea Party succeed? Will moderates reassert themselves? The debt ceiling argument the next few months will a good indicator. But the Democrats are in the drivers seat.

[_Bond James Bond]

Favorite image of the election: