The 2012 Election

[_Buffalo]

Obama is going to win. You know that, right bcspace?

[_EAllusion]

Obama is an ever so slight favorite right now. A proclamation either way at this stage is like confidently asserting that coin is going to land tails.

I do think Obama has been an absolutely terrible president. Because of the tendency for partisans to defend whatever it is their party of choice is doing, he has effectively ossified into the system rampant secrecy, major civil rights erosion, and excessive militarism. What once was viewed as a relatively radical consequence of neoconservatism by Democrats is now a robust bipartisan consensus. We've gotten to the point that even self-described liberals poll in favor of allowing the president to assassinate American citizens at will without trial or evidence on the mere executive say-so that the person is a security threat. It's an ugly thing, arguably worse than GWB's legacy, made all the worse by the fact that Obama was elected in large part because he supposedly opposed such things.

I don't see why that should influence my understanding of the "horserace," though. Obama is a slight favorite no matter how much I dislike him. I like Nate Silver, but I think Pollyvote is a slight better resource for election forecasting.

http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/

[_Bond James Bond]

I think I'll stick with my 2012 data over your 2009 data.

Poll please. I usually see most presidential election polls but didn't see that one.

[_Bond James Bond]

Another source that I've found interesting is this poll compositor:

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

It not only has state-by-state polling but also issue polls like "is the country going in the right/wrong direction?", Obama's job approval, state of the economy, etc.

[_Bond James Bond]

I think I'll stick with my 2012 data over your 2009 data.

Poll please. I usually see most presidential election polls but didn't see that one.

This poll from March 2012 has Obama +31 (62-31):

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.co ... 2c58000006

[_EAllusion]

BCSpace's link goes to Romney vs. Obama national polling. The realclearpolitics link that is specifically about california, correctly linked by Bond, has Obama up by an average of 23.5. The most recent poll listed there is from late March to early April of this year where Obama is up 31. This conforms to expectations whereas BCS's claim would be a massive outlier and a major news story in of itself.

It appears that BCSpace saw the year 2009 in the hyperlink and assumed he was looking at 2009 polls. He is not.

So way to report basic facts incredibly wrong BCSpace.

[_Bond James Bond]

A note about a state like Arizona being in play:

Any 2008 red state that could flip blue is huge for Obama, particularly one like Arizona which has 11 votes. Since Obama had such a huge starting point from 2008 (365 electoral votes) he can lose a lot and still win a second time. But Arizona is particularly of use. Check out this map I made:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=kup

In this scenario Obama loses Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Iowa from his 2008 coalition and still wins because he flips Arizona. In that scenario he only wins 22 states + DC but still wins the Presidency.

[_Kevin Graham]

Obama is an ever so slight favorite right now. A proclamation either way at this stage is like confidently asserting that coin is going to land tails.

I do think Obama has been an absolutely terrible president. Because of the tendency for partisans to defend whatever it is their party of choice is doing, he has effectively ossified into the system rampant secrecy, major civil rights erosion, and excessive militarism. What once was viewed as a relatively radical consequence of neoconservatism by Democrats is now a robust bipartisan consensus. We've gotten to the point that even self-described liberals poll in favor of allowing the president to assassinate American citizens at will without trial or evidence on the mere executive say-so that the person is a security threat. It's an ugly thing, arguably worse than GWB's legacy, made all the worse by the fact that Obama was elected in large part because he supposedly opposed such things.

I don't see why that should influence my understanding of the "horserace," though. Obama is a slight favorite no matter how much I dislike him. I like Nate Silver, but I think Pollyvote is a slight better resource for election forecasting.

http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/

Well I guess if you're more concerned about the things he hasn't done and less concerned about the things he has done, then I could see your point. Frankly, I don't think too many people knew much about or cared that much about GITMO. He tried to close it in the beginning but then had to use it as compromise leverage when trying to pass other things like Health Care reform.

I like the message from this website: http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/

[_Buffalo]

Here we are a few months away from the 2012 election. Remember folks that 270 votes out of 538 is required to win. I think Obama is going to win. The problem for Romney is that the electoral math doesn't add up for him. Here's my breakdown of the electoral votes:

Safe Obama: 227
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Wisconsin-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)

Safe Romney: 159
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)

Now since the election is six months away I'm going to be very modest with my discussion about swing states. I currently list the following states as tossup (I'll put which direction I think they'll go in parentheses).

Tossup: 152
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Indiana-11 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Arizona-11 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)

You might be surprised to see Arizona listed but a couple of recent polls show that Arizona appears to be in play. Several of these states will probably slide into lock position (such as Colorado, New Hamsphire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania for Obama and Missouri, Arizona, and Indiana for Romney) but the problem quickly emerges that Romney has very little room for error. Obama has many more paths to victory while Romney has to hold all previous votes as well as pick off almost 100 votes. It might happen but I don't see it happening, particularly with Obama's well oiled election machine and Mitt Romney's own likability problems (including among Republicans).

My prediction: Obama 332, Romney 206

Romney's best case scenario is that Romney holds all states and then wins Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina to squeak out 272-266. Obama's best case scenario is that he takes all states he won in 2008 and picks off maybe Arizona, Missouri, and South Carolina to win 388-150. A total worst case doomsday scenario for Romney also might include a Democratic pickup of Texas, Georgia, North Dakota, or Montana which is possible considering the small populations in those northern states and increased Latino populations in Texas and Georgia.* Obama's worst case scenario is that Romney holds all states McCain won in 2008 and Romney wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire, Indiana, Virginia, and Wisconsin. To do that Obama would have to have a major scandal or some other catastrophe. It's more realistic that Romney, if he wins, will squeak by with no more than 300 votes.

(I'll ignore any snark that says the worst case scenario for either candidate is losing all states. I think it's safe to assume that's not going to happen.)

*Something for down the road 10 years or so. Texas is currently polling with only about ten points between Republican and Democrat. If Texas were to come into play for the Democrats in the next couple of election cycles we might see the end of Republicans as a viable party, especially as Democrats make incursions down the Atlantic southern coast.

And that's my introduction to the 2012 Presidential election. Math don't lie.

Your analysis is pretty much irrefutable. Romney has no real chance.

[_krose]

Does anyone else wonder what the point is of the latest Gallup poll?

The one I mean is the Gallup Swing States poll. I just don't get how this is of any value. It appears to measure the voters in all 12 expected toss-up states combined, in which case it's meaningless. The numbers that matter are the votes in each individual state.

One number from this poll that might be meaningful is the measure of overall voter enthusiasm in these states. It's up for Democrats and down for Republicans at the moment.

Oh yeah, the poll shows Obama leading by just two points.