The 2012 Election

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_EAllusion
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _EAllusion »

Kevin Graham wrote:Well I guess if you're more concerned about the things he hasn't done and less concerned about the things he has done, then I could see your point.


No, not at all. The problem isn't what Obama hasn't done. It's what he has done. His administration has worked very hard to defend and expand the civil rights abuses, secrecy, and militarism associated with "the war on terror" that were inherited from Bush. You appear to have bought into the erroneous notion that Obama simply has failed to roll-back these problems when the reality is that he has actively supported them and, in some important respects, ratcheted them up. This includes strong-arming through legislation, using the DoJ to defend those policies, using diplomatic pressure on other nations, and taking unilateral executive action. Every substantive issue associated with the war on terror that supposedly was an anathema to liberals under the Bush administration has been supported and worsened under Obama. It's been able to be worsened because Obama has cover by virtue of being a candidate of liberal Democrats and the Republicans really don't oppose this either.

The only exception I'm aware of is the isssue of torture. Obama claims we no longer torture, full stop. Granted it's well supported that we still outsource our torture through extraordinary rendition. So we still do very much engage in torture in that we use other nations as a go-between. Also, the facts of the Bradley Manning case demonstrate we at least still engage in limited torture. Bush denied torture for years as well, so I'm not sure how seriously we should take Obama's claim given the facts as they are, but if we need to grant anything, it's that. We at least have a promise that we aren't waterboarding and the like anymore. Otherwise, it's all GWB, only worse.

The list is too extensive to recall in one post, but for starters:

He has waged an unprecedented battle against whistleblowers and journalists who use them as sources. He has sought to weaken the FOIA to conceal evidence of crime. He has pushed for the use of indefinite detention without due process, the use of kangaroo court military commissions when any sort of due process is offered, and the use of extraordinary rendition. He's fought and so far won the ability to immunize political leaders from accountability for heinous violations of the law through expansive use of the states secrets privilege. Due to a 6-5 ruling in the 9th circuit and a denial of cert from the Supreme Court this has gotten to the point that the executive is effectively immune from judicial review when it asserts national security classification. He has maintained and expanded the use of wiretapping and warrantless searches of US citizens, which in retrospect makes sense given his early flip-flop to support a law to retroactively immunize businesses who illegally cooperated with the government's illegal eavesdropping. It's known that the Obama administration has a secret interpretation of the PATRIOT act's surveillance powers that is more expansive than the general plain language public understanding. It's not known what it is. So far, the best interpretation going is that it is warrantless geotracking. His administration has drastically increased the use of secrecy for ordinary government functions. It has asserted the authority to assassinate US citizens without due process and has done so at least in one case. Contrary to campaign promises, Obama has used signing statements to announce his intent to circumvent congressional legislative limitations on executive power.

Nobel peace prizing winning Obama escalated the war in Afghanistan. The War in Iraq only formally ended because Iraq rejected the Obama administration's terms to extend allied troop presence beyond the initial withdrawal agreement negotiated under the Bush administration. He waged a war in Libya without congressional authorization. There's good evidence the US is engaged in a full-on cold war with Iran right now that has a not insignificant chance of becoming a hot war. His administration has ignored global ban on clusterbombs due to their indiscriminate and inhumane nature. No worry, as it has sought to overturn that ban agreement. His administration has massively increased the use of relatively indiscriminate drone attacks on members of sovereign nations we are not at war with, including killing citizen rescuers and mourners, an act normally considered a war crime. Many, many foreign civilians are dead as a result of this. Here's a particularly heart-breaking case if you are into that sort of thing.

On another war front, Obama has vigorously prosecuted the drug war and its attendant civil liberties problems, including parts he campaigned against.

Regarding the closing of GITMO, even if we did close GITMO, the Obama administration had other sites, including using Bagram Airforce Base, to serve the exact same function. The problem with GITMO wasn't where it was located. It was the indefinite detention of prisoners without due process through use of the category "enemy combatant" to escape American law and international treaties. The administration made it clear it was never serious about ending that. So all closing GITMO would've been was a symbolic bone that wouldn't change the underlying reality. It's no wonder it was only flirted with and easily abandoned.

So what if John McCain won the election and he was doing this? My guess is that Democrats would be blowing their collective tops. Yet, because of the power of partisanship, Obama is doing alright. Sure, the ACLU might hate his guts, but that doesn't appear to have hurt his prospects all that much. It's so under the radar, in fact, that you can write this post and seem to genuinely think my only problem would be that Obama hasn't done enough to reverse course.
_ludwigm
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _ludwigm »

2012 Election Central shows that the next Presidential Debate will be at October 3, 2012 University of Denver in Denver, Colorado

My word in season:
The Commission on Presidential Debates should take care of the proper attendants.


... as the edecán in Mexico City's World Trade Center ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XT1TR-SCr0
Image



"Who won the debate?"
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"The edecán: 93%."

Julia Orayen and her white dress only appeared for 24 seconds of the debate, but some Mexicans thought she stole the show.
- Whenever a poet or preacher, chief or wizard spouts gibberish, the human race spends centuries deciphering the message. - Umberto Eco
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_Bond James Bond
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _Bond James Bond »

In election news today:

Sen. Dick Luger was beaten by his Tea Party-backed primary challenger Richard Mourdock and will be leaving the Senate after more than thirty years in the Senate.

North Carolina voted to ban gay marriage (redundantly) and civil unions.

Tom Barrett won the Democratic primary in Wisconsin and will challenge Scott Walker for the governorship in the recall election in about a month.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07

MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
_Bond James Bond
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _Bond James Bond »

I'd also like to talk about why we should ignore national polls. Today Romney defeated Obama in two tracking polls:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx: Romney 47-44

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll: Romney 49-44

But Obama beats Romney in two state polls:

Iowa 51-41
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... -iowa.html

Ohio 50-43
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... -ohio.html

If Romney can't win Ohio it's game over. Romney would have to take Pennsylvania which is definitely more liberal than Ohio. The Iowa poll is even more a shock since I'm more pessimistic about Obama winning Iowa than Ohio. We're a long way out but if Obama takes Ohio and Iowa by 7 and 10 points he's going to win the Presidency.

Rasmussen and Gallup are also notoriously conservative leaning pollsters (PPP is liberal but they were pretty on point with 2008 results and continue to be pretty close with whatever they poll) so I tend to take what they say with a grain of salt unless they record the same numbers several days in a row. Still I tend to prefer state polls because state wide elections are the only elections that matter come election day.

Counting my 227 safe votes from the opening post and adding Ohio (18 votes) and Iowa (6 votes), Obama would have 251 votes. After that he'd only need to win Pennsylvania (20) to reach 270 votes and the Presidency. That's how easy victory for Obama will be and how close a margin Romney has.

Here's what that map would look like (Obama's 227 safe votes plus Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania)

(These polls are also in line with my predictions so far, as I predicted Obama will win Ohio and Iowa on his way to my predicted 332-206 victory.)
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07

MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
_moksha
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _moksha »

Bond, wouldn't Murphy's Law suggest Mitt will win the 2012 election?
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_Bond James Bond
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _Bond James Bond »

moksha wrote:Bond, wouldn't Murphy's Law suggest Mitt will win the 2012 election?


Maybe. But if Obama really is the Antichrist then another term would support Murphy's Law far better. However I think I've laid out how much easier a road Obama has to the White House compared to Romney so I think Obama can have far more go wrong than Romney who will be walking a tight rope. One gaff by Romney in October at a rally or a debate could put him out of the White House.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07

MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
_Brackite
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _Brackite »

Bond James Bond wrote:...

North Carolina voted to ban gay marriage (redundantly) and civil unions.

...



North Carolina Same-Sex Marriage, Amendment 1 (May 2012):

Democrats and Charlotte: Far From a Perfect Match:
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
_krose
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _krose »

Whenever the civil rights of a minority are put to a public vote, they usually lose. Unfortunately, that appears to be human nature.
"The DNA of fictional populations appears to be the most susceptible to extinction." - Simon Southerton
_Brackite
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _Brackite »

My Comments and Opinions are in the Brackets below here:

Tossup: 152
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [Nope, I believe that Romney will win that State.]
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [I Don't know who will win that State.]
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [Yes, I agree that Obama will win that State.]
Indiana-11 (Romney) (Obama-2008) [Yes, I agree that Romney will win that State.]
Arizona-11 (Romney) (McCain-2008) [Yes, I definitely agree that Romney will win that State.]
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [Yes, I agree that Obama will win that State.]
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [I Don't know who will win that State.]
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008) [Yes, I agree that Romney will win that State.]
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [I Don't know who will win that State.]
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [I Don't know who will win that State.]
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008) [Yes, I agree that Romney will win that State.]
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008) [Yes, I agree that Obama will win that State.]
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
_krose
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Re: The 2012 Election

Post by _krose »

Brackite,

It appears you are also essentially predicting re-election. Unless I added wrong, you have Obama one vote shy of clinching it. Therefore, all he will need is one of the four that you put in the "don't know" category. Romney must win them all.
"The DNA of fictional populations appears to be the most susceptible to extinction." - Simon Southerton
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