The republicans are putting my family in danger

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_DoubtingThomas
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

subgenius wrote:Nice article, and even if ignore the fact that over the past 68 years hurricane speed tracking has greatly improved (ergo data from 68 years ago is less precise than from 68 minutes ago), there still seems to be an issue that the article offers no discernible cause for the "speed" of any hurricane anywhere at anytime.
But thanks for the link, where science says that science says something.


Well, read the study I shared in the first post.

"As the Earth’s atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming..A highly significant global slowdown of tropical- cyclone translation speed is evident, of −10% over the 68-yr period 1949–2016."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3

subgenius wrote:14% is only significant by context.
And my dog still has no fear of the ocean.


So what makes you think 14% is not significant?
_Res Ipsa
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Res Ipsa »

subgenius wrote:Yet, since 1995, in America the per capita annual carbon dioxide emissions has reduced by about 15% to 20%...and of the top 20 industrial carbon dioxide emitters...only 3 are American companies (with only 1 in the top 10 - #5 Exxon, #12 Chevron, #16 Peabody).

And being a skeptic of global warming prophecy is a more accurate characterization....of the 120 hurricanes that hit Florida since 1850, somehow it was last one that was because of AGW.


Let's dig into sub's arguments a little to see how well they hold up. Here's a link to data on total and per capita CO2 emissions per capita up to 2016. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview. ... &sort=des9 Sub is right. The U.S. per capita is 15.56 tons per person. So, all we have to do is lean on those countries that have higher per capita usage, right? In 2016, the number one per capita baddie was the awful nation of Curacao. Followed by Quatar and Trinidad and Tobago. Problem solved. Get right on that, Sub.

Sub also leaves out the fact that per capita figure for the world is under 5, meaning our "improvement" means that we've gone from very inefficient to inefficient in terms of per capita CO2 production.

A sensible person might approach the problem by looking at the countries that produce the most total CO2 in order to get the most bang for the buck in total reductions. The three top producers are China, U.S., and India. But India's per capita production is under 2, and China's is under 8. So, if our interest is in eliminating carbon emissions, per capita emissions is not a sensible number to focus on. The stat that Sub quotes is simply a cherry picked number designed excuse the U.S. from putting forth any further effort to actually reduce total emissions.

But Sub also fails to ask why U.S. per capita emissions have fallen. One reason is that, with the advent of fracking technology, the U.S. has been substituting natural gas for coal and oil in the production of electricity. But that substitution has its own problems. First, it can't continue indefinitely -- we can't get to zero net carbon emissions by producing all of our electricity through natural gas. Second, natural gas production results in increased methane release. This is particularly important given the recent study that the EPA has been underestimating the release of methane caused by natural gas production in the U.S. by as much as 60%. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 141154.htm The figure Sub cites doesn't include methane emissions.

Also, what has happened is that manufacturing has shifted from the U.S. to other countries. Where is your cell phone made? As manufacturing for products consumed by Americans has moved overseas, we have essentially outsourced our CO2 emissions to other countries. Sub himself recognizes the importance of this when he tries to shame doubtingthomas into silence by focussing on what he consumes as opposed to what he makes. Who, actually, should be responsible for CO2 emissions from manufacturing? The country where the plant happens to be located or the consumer who buys the goods? All that cheap crap from China we can buy in Wal-Mart requires the emission of carbon, regardless of where the manufacturing takes place.

What Sub is really defending is the notion that it is perfectly fine to sentence our descendants to a hellish existence so that he can exercise his right to buy cheap crap from Wal-Mart, drive as much as he chooses, and purchase more expensive, less efficient lightbulbs because... freedom.
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_Gunnar
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Gunnar »

Res Ipsa brought up a very significant point. It is dishonest and hypocritical to solely blame China for its increasing share of greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring our complicity in that gain by outsourcing so much of our own manufacturing and greenhouse gas emissions to China in pursuit of ever cheaper and more abundant consumer goods.
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_Amore
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Amore »

Res Ipsa wrote:If you want to understand, you have to be genuinely curious — not just troll the internets for something that reinforces your prejudices.

Good job - keep telling yourself that.
_Res Ipsa
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Amore wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:If you want to understand, you have to be genuinely curious — not just troll the internets for something that reinforces your prejudices.

Good job - keep telling yourself that.


I don’t think that was me parroting stale denier talking points upthread. :lol: :lol: :lol:
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

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_Amore
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Amore »

Image
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_Amore
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Amore »

Image
_Some Schmo
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Some Schmo »

Amore wrote:Image

Wow. Did you really think this was good? I mean, good enough to post?

You would have to be a complete moron to think this is saying something relevant to climate change. It's right up there with bringing a snowball to the house floor. Way to expose your stupidity.

Christ, right wingers in this country are dumb.
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_Chap
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Chap »

If I may just revert to the point about the relation between the energy content of a hurricane and the evaporation of water from a warm sea, followed by its condensation as rain (with release of the energy used in evaporation):

Hurricane Research Division
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration


Subject: D7) How much energy does a hurricane release?
Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)
Hurricanes can be thought of, to a first approximation, as a heat engine; obtaining its heat input from the warm, humid air over the tropical ocean, and releasing this heat through the condensation of water vapor into water droplets in deep thunderstorms of the eyewall and rainbands, then giving off a cold exhaust in the upper levels of the troposphere (~12 km/8 mi up).
One can look at the energetics of a hurricane in two ways:
the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets or ...
the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong swirling winds of the hurricane (Emanuel 1999).
It turns out that the vast majority of the heat released in the condensation process is used to cause rising motions in the thunderstorms and only a small portion drives the storm's horizontal winds.
Method 1) - Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:
An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 1016 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
5.2 x 1019 Joules/day or
6.0 x 1014 Watts.

This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity - an incredible amount of energy produced!
Method 2) - Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated:
For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
1.3 x 1017 Joules/day or
1.5 x 1012Watts.

This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity - also an amazing amount of energy being produced!
Either method is an enormous amount energy being generated by hurricanes. However, one can see that the amount of energy released in a hurricane (by creating clouds/rain) that actually goes to maintaining the hurricane's spiraling winds is a huge ratio of 400 to 1.


Energy can take a number of forms, and energy in one form can transfer to another form. Energy released from water vapour as it condenses to water drops can become the kinetic (motion) energy of air (i.e. wind). Mostly, as noted here, vertical wind. But of course the more evaporation, the more condensation, and hence the more horizontal wind too, as well as vertical wind.
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_Some Schmo
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Re: The republicans are putting my family in danger

Post by _Some Schmo »

Chap wrote:Energy can take a number of forms, and energy in one form can transfer to another form. Energy released from water vapour as it condenses to water drops can become the kinetic (motion) energy of air (i.e. wind). Mostly, as noted here, vertical wind. But of course the more evaporation, the more condensation, and hence the more horizontal wind too, as well as vertical wind.

Awesome.

I had a feeling I may have been oversimplifying your meaning. Your post just reminded me of what the climate guy was saying on the radio.
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