Paradise Split from LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct

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doubtingthomas
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Post by doubtingthomas »

I made some changes to my earlier post.
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
Maybe social media.
Nope, not true according to South and Lei.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 ... 3121996854
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jomf.12723
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
One of the articles suggested that young people are maturing more slowly, which could translate into having sexual partners later.
You should read the research by South and Lei.

According to Bozick (who is skeptical of the sex recession), "Using 14 years of survey data from men in the National Survey of Family Growth (2006–2019)...those born between 2000 and 2004 had significantly higher rates of sexual inactivity than previous birth cohorts did at the same age." I doubt things were much different 5 or 10 years ago.

According to Pew 2019, 51% of of men (18 to 29) are single, compared to 32% of women (18 to 29). How do you explain the difference? The explanation is that men in their 30s are dating women in their 20s, but young men in their early 20s are not dating younger women.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... americans/

According to journalist Jon Birger, men are terrified of being labeled a "predator" or a "creep".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh3gakH1k6c

Sam Harris and Dr.David Buss
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4B9krAxIpY
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
The drop off is reportedly larger among men than women, so maybe it turns out that more women prefer women as sexual partners than before.
Women with women is contributing, but it is not a big factor.
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
Maybe men were more sensitive in the past in terms of image and lied about the frequency at which they had sex
Doubtful, the decline is happening among all age groups. And sex before marriage is now more acceptable in society. In theory, young men should be having more sex partners because men are delaying marriage.
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am

But I don’t see what any of this has to do with how we should define the word grooming or whether the LDS Church should change its worthiness interviews in the interest of harm reduction.
You were asking me. Maybe if IHAQ didn't change the meaning of the terms we wouldn't be discussing this.
Last edited by doubtingthomas on Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:16 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
Why should I have any strong opinion based on something that may be a factor?
The Pew (2019) data is good evidence that young men who are in their early and mid 20s are scared to talk to younger women. There is no other way to explain the gap.

We should all be worried to see an increasing number of young men who are single. Too many single men isn't good thing for society.

"The most dangerous person in the world"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/19/opin ... index.html
Marcus wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:04 pm
The reason Utah is the affinity fraud capital of the world
Source?
malkie wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:54 am
Do I have a point?
Last edited by doubtingthomas on Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Post by malkie »

doubtingthomas wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 2:28 am
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
Why should I have any strong opinion based on something that may be a factor?
The Pew (2019) data is good evidence that young men who are in their early and mid 20s are scared to talk to younger women. There is no other way to explain the gap.

We should all be worried to see an increasing number of young men who are single. Too many single men isn't good thing for society.

"The most dangerous person in the world"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/19/opin ... index.html

We shouldn't quote, "Grooming is when someone builds a relationship, trust and emotional connection with a child or young person" because that will cause young men to avoid younger women.
Marcus wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:04 pm
The reason Utah is the affinity fraud capital of the world
Source?
malkie wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:54 am
Do I have a point?
What, specifically, did I write?
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doubtingthomas
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Post by doubtingthomas »

Physics Guy wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:41 pm
Changing the meanings of words can be bad, of course, but only if you're doing it to deceive or confuse people somehow.
Yes, and I did ask IHAQ for clarification.
Physics Guy wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:41 pm
If what most people understand by a word has changed a lot in fifty years, then it could be that going back to that fifty-year-old definition, instead of using the current one, is the deceptive thing.
Or we could simply look it up in a well-known dictionary. We shouldn't use a definition that is not in the dictionary.

You are a numbers guy, how would you explain the Pew 2019 data?
doubtingthomas wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:40 am
According to Bozick (who is skeptical of the sex recession), "Using 14 years of survey data from men in the National Survey of Family Growth (2006–2019)...those born between 2000 and 2004 had significantly higher rates of sexual inactivity than previous birth cohorts did at the same age."

According to Pew 2019, 51% of of men (18 to 29) are single, compared to 32% of women (18 to 29). How do you explain the difference?
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... americans/
malkie wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 3:16 am
What, specifically, did I write?
I just wanted to know your opinion. Your opinion is usually very interesting.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

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doubtingthomas wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:21 am
…how would you explain the Pew 2019 data?
doubtingthomas wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:40 am
According to Bozick (who is skeptical of the sex recession), "Using 14 years of survey data from men in the National Survey of Family Growth (2006–2019)...those born between 2000 and 2004 had significantly higher rates of sexual inactivity than previous birth cohorts did at the same age."

According to Pew 2019, 51% of of men (18 to 29) are single, compared to 32% of women (18 to 29). How do you explain the difference?
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... americans/
What does this have to do with the topic? Please start your own thread if this is what you want to talk about, because it has NOTHING to do with the OP, which was this:
IHAQ wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:16 am
A former Boys Scouts of America and Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints leader was arraigned Monday in 39th District Court in Macomb County and charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Mark Chapman, 51, was extradited from New York to face the charges, the Michigan attorney general's office said in a release.

He is facing two counts of first-degree, criminal sexual conduct and eight counts of second-degree criminal sexual conduct stemming from the alleged abuse of two victims. Chapman is the first person to be charged as a result of an ongoing Boy Scouts of America investigation, according to Dana Nessel's office.

One of the alleged victims was a family member who was about 11 years old when the abuse, which continued for years, first began, the AG said in announcing the charges earlier this month.

The other victim was allegedly abused by Chapman between the ages of 13-17 at his father's house, Chapman's house and a local church, the AG said.
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/news/form ... nal-sexual

The Church needs to acknowledge and embrace that it has a problem as big (if not bigger) as the Catholic Church has been facing with sexual predators gaining positions of trust and responsibility. The Church still doesn’t run background checks before appointing people to leadership positions with responsibility for minors.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

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DT, this is the same old problem I've pointed out before with the way you treat sources. You pick out snippets from various sources and then stitch them together in an an interpretation that is not consistent with the entire collection of data. Do South and Lei say that the metoo movement intimidating young men is a significant factor in the overall reduction of sexual activity in young people? No!
Of the possible explanations considered, the decline in the formation of romantic relationships and decreasing alcohol consumption are the most important, but declining earnings and increasing use of computer games also play important roles. Overall, the measured explanations explain three-quarters of the decline in young adult sexual activity. Within individuals, forming a romantic relationship, going to college, and alcohol consumption likely have causal effects on the probability of engaging in sexual intercourse.
On average, young people in committed relationships have more frequent sex than those who don't. So, if young people are putting off committed relationships longer (which is consistent with other indications of a prolonged adolescence in young people), that would fully explain why the demographic you are interested in, men in their 20s having sex with women in their late teens, would see a substantial decrease in the frequency of having sense.

They did a follow up study on young adult casual sex and found that 75% of the decrease in men is explained by decreased alcohol consumption, living with parents for a longer period of time, and playing video games. The single most explanatory variable for women was decreased alcohol consumption. You've been preaching on the evils of alcohol consumption lately, so you're kind of hoist by your own petard on that one.

As for the difference in numbers from the Pew Report that you keep insisting has only one explanation, one of your own sources disagrees with you. Jon Birger attributes that difference to voluntary choices by men to postpone committed dating relationships. As the percentage of women in colleges has increased, it has become less important to "lock in" a female partner by investing the time and effort in a committed relationship. With women making up the majority of students, men can have sex without the investment of time and effort in a committed relationship. At least that's what he says in his published books and articles.

According to the Pew Report, both sexes report the difficulty in approaching each other as a factor that discourages them from dating. But that's far from the only factor that is reported as discouraging them from dating. For young men especially, too busy with work is a important reasons.

I don't have the time or the interest to chase down all of cherry picked snippets out of which you have constructed your Gish Gallop. But I can see you doing exactly doing the same thing we've talked about before: cherry picking from studies out of confirmation bias instead of reading the literature and trying to arrive at some reasonable conclusions about what is going on.

Nothing in your many snippets provides any sort of explanation for why IHAQ's comment made you feel anxious. I'd suggest that anxiety is best addressed with a good therapist as opposed to pouring over scientific articles looking for nuggets to confirm your biases.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Post by doubtingthomas »

Marcus wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:31 am
What does this have to do with the topic? Please start your own thread if this is what you want to talk about, because it has NOTHING to do with the opening post, which was this:
I was answering Res Ipsa's questions. Tell him.
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:18 pm
DT, this is the same old problem I've pointed out before with the way you treat sources. You pick out snippets from various sources and then stitch them together in an an interpretation that is not consistent with the entire collection of data.
I gave you more studies (Bozick) and I gave you the 2019 Pew data which is entirely consistent with what I am saying. I am not cherry-picking anything here.

Anti-women con man like Talor The Fiend or Rollo Tomassi are becoming increasingly popular (within the last two years) because there is a record number of young single men. Videos like this one https://youtu.be/DBIhnT0aMAc are now getting millions of views.

Having too many young single men is very dangerous and it should be declared a health crisis, we don't want another Parkland. We should all be worried.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

Post by doubtingthomas »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:54 am
Where are you going to get reliable data on the susceptibility of children who attend worthiness interviews with their LDS bishop as compared to those who don’t. If my understanding is correct, the extent to which bishops ask detailed, intrusive questions about sexual contact varies from Bishop to bishop. So you can’t even control for that variable.
The study doesn't have to be perfect; a study with limitations should be enough.

Researchers can simply ask adult LDS members if they were sexually abuse and groomed as children. Next, the researchers can compare the results with the general population or other religious groups. The study should control for race, poverty, state laws, and religiosity.

I thought you didn't like to make assumptions, what happened here? Can you prove that LDS members experience higher rates of child sexual abuse?
Last edited by doubtingthomas on Wed Apr 27, 2022 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:31 pm

I do believe that I had to be fingerprinted to chaperone field trips as well.
Just a reminder

"those born between 2000 and 2004 had significantly higher rates of sexual inactivity than previous birth cohorts did at the same age"
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 ... 3211057710

According to Pew 2019, 51% of of men (18 to 29) and 32% of women (18 to 29) are single.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... americans/

So you won't accuse me of picking, "snippets from various sources and then stitch them together in an an interpretation that is not consistent with the entire collection of data."
"I have the type of (REAL) job where I can choose how to spend my time," says Marcus. :roll:
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Re: LDS Scout Leader charged with several counts of criminal sexual conduct.

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doubtingthomas wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:41 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:31 pm

I do believe that I had to be fingerprinted to chaperone field trips as well.
Just a reminder

"those born between 2000 and 2004 had significantly higher rates of sexual inactivity than previous birth cohorts did at the same age"
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 ... 3211057710

According to Pew 2019, 51% of of men (18 to 29) and 32% of women (18 to 29) are single.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... americans/

So you won't accuse me of picking, "snippets from various sources and then stitch them together in an an interpretation that is not consistent with the entire collection of data."
What does that have to do with fingerprinting requirements?
he/him
When a Religion is good, I conceive that it will support itself; and when it cannot support itself, and God does not take care to support, so that its Professors are oblig’d to call for the help of the Civil Power, ’tis a Sign, I apprehend, of its being a bad one.

Benjamin Franklin
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