Venezuela: What is this?

[Chap]

A Washington Post article (paywall) ends with this reflection:

Nicolo Machiavelli, the supreme realist, observed that “people may go to war when they will, but cannot always withdraw when they like.” That’s a precept written in blood in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Trump had proclaimed it as a cornerstone of his foreign policy. But he seems fated to learn the lesson for himself.

Trump got elected, in part, by proclaiming there would be no more forever wars based on regime change and nation building interventions. Now here he is in Venezuela, and it seems clear that, as usual, he will just be making it up as he goes along.

[Doctor Steuss]

I had forgotten about those failed negotiations. Good catch, Doc.

I read a piece with another wrinkle — the move was needed to protect the trading of oil in US currency. It sounded plausible to me. ***Shrugs***

The same piece said that US proven reserves divided the current rate of production comes to around 11 years. And the price has to be high or those reserves shrink.

For Argentina, the same calculation yields about 130 years. And more of it is conventional oil, so pumping lots will drive the price down. And it’s heavier oil, so it matches better with US refineries. So, my money is on “it’s the oil.”

While I think Trump's "it's the oil, it's the oil, it's the oil" kind of removes any doubt as far as executive branch justifications go, I also think Trump is too incompetent to understand the global oil markets, and how they interplay with our domestic companies (exhibit A, him bankrupting a huge chunk of our domestic oil companies with is idiocy during his first presidency, and exhibit B him setting off an inflation bomb with OPEC dog-walking him in 2020 as retribution for Trump's moronic Syrian double-cross). Of course, there's always the chance that he does understand them, and weakening America and strengthening places with lower break-even points is the end goal.

If (and that's a really big if) any US oil companies had a hand in pressuring this move, it was to throttle production and control the rate that Venezuelan oil enters the global market. US oil companies have recently invested billions into Canada. Pumping large amounts of Venezuelan oil into the global market (instead of its minimal current black-market route) would be great for consumers, but it would be one of the worst things for US oil companies who are looking to protect their investments. We're already at a WTI Crude oil price that makes a lot of domestic well production unprofitable, and the US has already lost about 70 oil rigs from the total count since Trump took office.

Alternatively though, Trump's pathological incompetence when it comes to "America First" has increased the US's exposure to European markets for NG, which has resulted in a drastic increase in NG prices, as well as an increase in domestic wells. Electricity costs in the US are going to be brutal in the future for a lot of areas.

[Chap]

Trump has just remarked in speaking to the House GOP retreat:

He added that the deposed leader, Nicolás Maduro, is a “violent guy”.

“He gets up there and he tries to imitate my dance a little bit, but he’s a violent guy, and he’s killed millions of people,” Trump said.

Ah. The President of the USA regards himself as having something he calls 'my dance'. And it irked him that Maduro, as he sees it, imitated his dance.

And he talks about it in the context of referring to an operation in which a number of people were killed. This is the kind of thing you expect from a Roman historian talking about the mad emperor Caligula. How on earth did you get to this, starting from Washington?

[Jersey Girl]

THIS

BT 8 minutes and change. People need to stop trying to figure out his "strategy". He doesn't have one. He's not reflective. He's reactive. It's evident by every single decision he makes. He's still talking about Obama (who mocked him at the correspondents dinner), right? Biden who beat him in a fair and legal election, right? His own 1st term staff, right? Kimmel, Colbert, etc., right? More recently, MJT, right?

This guy doesn't form strategy. He's not playing 3D chess. He's throwing his toys around the room and eating his crayons. Every single thing he does is reactive. It's not about him personally. It's about his father. Trying to get over on his dead father.

Stop trying to figure out what his end game is. There isn't an end game. It doesn't exist.

Oh yeah, he's gonna get the oil companies in there. He's going to make the US billions of dollars and lower gas prices. Oh wait...it's gonna cost a ton of money beforehand. No problem. The US tax payers can fund it.

There IS no strategy.
There IS no end game.

He simply reacts.

Okay so Quiet Piggy. Go watch the video.

BTC run time is 8 minutes and change.

Trump’s INSANE Venezuela SECRET gets exposed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWm8uW6OfzI

[Hound of Heaven]

OK, time for a daily dose of common sense injected into this thread.

Anyone who has read threads on this board knows that I have said multiple times that the progressives here hate people just because they color of their skin. Also, progressives hate Trump just because Trump is Trump, doesn't matter the subject being discussed, a true progressive like the ones that are members here rather have Maduro as president of the United States than Trump. If you don't believe me, watch the video.

So the video I linked to has it all. It has white progressives protesting, no person of color in the crowd. It has a progressive man, the guy in the image, telling the interviewer EXACTLY what I've been saying for months, he doesn't want another white person as president of the United States. The progressive in the video tells the interviewer that he rather have Maduro as president of the USA than Trump.

As the video continues, more white progressives, around 4 or 5, also say they rather have Maduro as president than Trump. I swear these people have gone totally insane.

The rest of the video is showing actual Venezuelans celebrating the capture of Maduro. In fact, 99% of Venezuelans are happy Maduro was captured, it's only white progressives that are upset he has been captured.

Let's go over this again. In the video we see Venezuelans happy a dictator was removed, while at the same time we see white progressives that are upset a dictator was removed. Not just upset, but they actually rather have Maduro as president of the USA than Trump.



https://youtu.be/cwmHNbRDGQw?si=arq-8gSTopR8QN2a

[Marcus]

I had forgotten about those failed negotiations. Good catch, Doc.

I read a piece with another wrinkle — the move was needed to protect the trading of oil in US currency. It sounded plausible to me. ***Shrugs***

The same piece said that US proven reserves divided the current rate of production comes to around 11 years. And the price has to be high or those reserves shrink.

For Argentina, the same calculation yields about 130 years. And more of it is conventional oil, so pumping lots will drive the price down. And it’s heavier oil, so it matches better with US refineries. So, my money is on “it’s the oil.”

While I think Trump's "it's the oil, it's the oil, it's the oil" kind of removes any doubt as far as executive branch justifications go, I also think Trump is too incompetent to understand the global oil markets, and how they interplay with our domestic companies (exhibit A, him bankrupting a huge chunk of our domestic oil companies with is idiocy during his first presidency, and exhibit B him setting off an inflation bomb with OPEC dog-walking him in 2020 as retribution for Trump's moronic Syrian double-cross). Of course, there's always the chance that he does understand them, and weakening America and strengthening places with lower break-even points is the end goal.

If (and that's a really big if) any US oil companies had a hand in pressuring this move, it was to throttle production and control the rate that Venezuelan oil enters the global market. US oil companies have recently invested billions into Canada. Pumping large amounts of Venezuelan oil into the global market (instead of its minimal current black-market route) would be great for consumers, but it would be one of the worst things for US oil companies who are looking to protect their investments. We're already at a WTI Crude oil price that makes a lot of domestic well production unprofitable, and the US has already lost about 70 oil rigs from the total count since Trump took office.

Alternatively though, Trump's pathological incompetence when it comes to "America First" has increased the US's exposure to European markets for NG, which has resulted in a drastic increase in NG prices, as well as an increase in domestic wells. Electricity costs in the US are going to be brutal in the future for a lot of areas.

Already happening here. I seriously thought something had gone wrong with my meter when I saw my last electric bill.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I see the fat ugly piece of crap HoH/Atlanticmike, in violation of using a sock puppet, posted something, but I can’t see it because I have it on ignore. Regardless, the obvious through-line here is Dump’s strategy to create collateral damage and masquerade that behavior as leverage is a failure. Trump talks like oil is a faucet you turn on and off, but markets respond, punish, and remember crappy leaders. Whether it’s Venezuela, OPEC, or LNG exports the outcome is higher volatility, weaker domestic tolerances for this crap, and ultimately the consumers eat the downsides mentioned above.

If there is a plan, it is indistinguishable from incompetence because it keeps producing the same anti “America First” results. At some point the simplest explanation applies, which is that MAGA is ultra-“retarted” and they’re destroying our great nation because whites are mad brown people exist.

[Hound of Heaven]

In this video we see more white progressives protesting the capture of a brutal dictator. They are being paid by a Marxist progressive millionaire with ties to the Chinese government. His goal is to bring down and dismantle the US.

https://youtu.be/GnEKG8WTO5o?si=ly8Covh4Ps1S9_rU


alphabetize unique lines

[Chap]

Trump's latest message on Truth Social includes these words:

"We will always be there for NATO, even if they won’t be there for us."

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all. Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."

It was only been invoked once, in the case of the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001. The United Kingdom responded to the call by sending troops to join US forces in Afghanistan. A total of 454 British servicemen and women were killed, exceeding the death toll of the Falklands War in 1982. A further estimated 2,000 British military and civilian personnel were wounded in action.

Trump seems to have no recollection of this. Perhaps he was preoccupied with more important matters, such as ensuring that he paid as little tax as possible. Maybe one of his casinos was in trouble. Or something.

[Hound of Heaven]

Another video showing Venezuelans around the world celebrating that Maduro has been captured.

https://youtube.com/shorts/DeyqanF1Uwo? ... Brad Wilcox_4im5NOR