Biden's Economy?

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Binger
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Binger »

Fed this and Fed that and fed my dogs and fed the neighbor's cat.

First, the companies will have their IR departments call their friends in the I-banks to lower estimates for the quarter.
Second, the companies will feign a surprise and beat on the quarterly numbers but guide their friends at the I-banks to go lower for 2023.
Third, the companies will have their IR departments call their friends in the I-banks to lower estimates for another quarter.
Fourth, the companies will feign a surprise and beat on the quarterly numbers but guide their friends at the I-banks to go lower again for 2023. And sometime around this step, the analysts will finally whack the 2024 numbers for real.

In all likelihood, McConnell and Biden will succeed in their partnership and drive this train into the ditch, roll it on its side, set it on fire, cash their checks and walk away rich AF.
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Binger
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Binger »

Doctor Steuss wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:59 pm
Hawkeye wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:48 pm


We could consider coaxing workers over 67 back into the labor force by suspending the social security tax for people over 67? It's not like they're paying social security tax while they are sitting at home.
I see no problem with it, but it would be a drop-in-the-bucket at best, and a very short-term fix.

I don't foresee people living in retirement scrambling in droves to re-enter the workforce to hang drywall, work in factories, bus tables, frame houses, or stock retail shelves.
Hahahahahhhhaaaahhahahaahhhaaahahahah.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeah. Boomers I or Boomers II. They are not going to be lured back to work. That generation is rich, rich, rich, rich, rich by every and any comparison to any other generation. They have been raping every generation since they figured out how to turn Vietnam into both a travesty and a boon.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

Doctor Steuss wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:59 pm
Hawkeye wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:48 pm


We could consider coaxing workers over 67 back into the labor force by suspending the social security tax for people over 67? It's not like they're paying social security tax while they are sitting at home.
I see no problem with it, but it would be a drop-in-the-bucket at best, and a very short-term fix.

I don't foresee people living in retirement scrambling in droves to re-enter the workforce to hang drywall, work in factories, bus tables, or stock retail shelves, just because they can get paid 6.2% more than other people doing it.

ETA: In thinking about it more, I wonder what kind of federal/IRS administrative cost, as well as burden on employers there would be because of the unavoidable additional accounting, verification, and paperwork involved.
Do you think gas prices are going to go back up after November 8, 2022? I noticed it was all the way down to $3.32/gallon. Just a couple months ago I was paying $5/gallon.
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Gunnar »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:30 am
Do you think gas prices are going to go back up after November 8, 2022? I noticed it was all the way down to $3.32/gallon. Just a couple months ago I was paying $5/gallon.
Aren't you one of those people who blamed Biden for those high gas prices? Are you now going to give him any credit for lowering them?
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Jersey Girl »

Gunnar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:47 am
Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:30 am
Do you think gas prices are going to go back up after November 8, 2022? I noticed it was all the way down to $3.32/gallon. Just a couple months ago I was paying $5/gallon.
Aren't you one of those people who blamed Biden for those high gas prices? Are you now going to give him any credit for lowering them?
It doesn't work that way, Gunnar. 8-)
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Gunnar »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:31 am
Gunnar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:47 am

Aren't you one of those people who blamed Biden for those high gas prices? Are you now going to give him any credit for lowering them?
It doesn't work that way, Gunnar. 8-)
Yes, I know. To hardcore Republican conservatives, Democrats and progressives must be blamed for anything bad, but must never be given credit for anything good. In fact, a number of conservative candidates are shamelessly trying to take credit for popular programs and legislation initiated and passed by their Democrat opponents despite having voted against the very same things themselves.

Here is an egregious example: Republicans Still Claiming Credit For Infrastructure Bill They Voted Down
Republicans across the country are bragging to their constituents about the new projects and investments that the infrastructure bill is bringing to their areas, completely omitting the fact that they voted against it. Voters want to see action and progress, and Republicans don't want their voters to know that they are actually the Party trying to block these things from happening just because they want Biden to fail. Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins explains what's happening.
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

I can't believe the reporter on 60 minutes was willing to push back on BIden's inflation claim. Mr. President things cost 8.2% more this year than they did last year. Yeah but they cost 0.01% less than they did last month so things are all better now. It's like saying your patient is losing a pint of blood an hour and in danger of bleeding out. Yeah but he lost 2 mls less blood this past hour than he did the hour before that. So we've fixed the problem.

Thankyou Biden for opening up the strategic oil reserve to bring it back to 3 dollars and change at the pump (which is still way higher than $2/gallon under your predecessor), at least until November when you're accountable to nobody for making green energy competitive, not because you've made green energy any more affordable but because you've cut the oil and gas industry off at the knees.
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Doctor Steuss »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:30 am
Do you think gas prices are going to go back up after November 8, 2022? I noticed it was all the way down to $3.32/gallon. Just a couple months ago I was paying $5/gallon.
I don't know. Gas at the corner store I stop at most mornings went up $0.13 overnight on Tuesday, and gas on the market went down $0.06. The modest $0.17-ish drop from tapping the SPR certainly can't last forever though. Oil prices have been downwardly trending for a few months, so who knows if that will continue to hold. I don't think the entire world has a special US election switch that magically changes a global commodity market.

The last six months, domestically, oil production has been greater than it was in 2018 (the last price peak, that we are now below when adjusted). From the last conference with all of the oil bigwigs, their main hinderance on taking advantage of all of the permits was qualified labor. From what I understand, there's a fairly long safety certification and training process in the industry -- which makes sense given that they're essentially working on top of a massive bomb.

WTI crude hasn't gone back over the 100 mark since it dropped below it in early July. Gulf Coast HSFO is about $7 less per barrel right now than it was in 2018, and that's not even adjusted. Canada's index is averaging around $60 a barrel.

Basically, on paper (from what my limited abilities, and experience can gather), things are heading in a direction where prices are at least going to stabilize where they are currently, and might possibly continue to overall go down; but not by much. Then again, we're still in the heart of hurricane season, so who knows whether some platforms, or refineries are going to be neutered by mother nature. If the economy hangs in there, we might also see a lot more spending and traveling come the holidays, driving demand up, and increasing prices.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

Doctor Steuss wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:01 pm
Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:30 am
Do you think gas prices are going to go back up after November 8, 2022? I noticed it was all the way down to $3.32/gallon. Just a couple months ago I was paying $5/gallon.
I don't know. Gas at the corner store I stop at most mornings went up $0.13 overnight on Tuesday, and gas on the market went down $0.06. The modest $0.17-ish drop from tapping the SPR certainly can't last forever though. Oil prices have been downwardly trending for a few months, so who knows if that will continue to hold. I don't think the entire world has a special US election switch that magically changes a global commodity market.

The last six months, domestically, oil production has been greater than it was in 2018 (the last price peak, that we are now below when adjusted). From the last conference with all of the oil bigwigs, their main hinderance on taking advantage of all of the permits was qualified labor. From what I understand, there's a fairly long safety certification and training process in the industry -- which makes sense given that they're essentially working on top of a massive bomb.

WTI crude hasn't gone back over the 100 mark since it dropped below it in early July. Gulf Coast HSFO is about $7 less per barrel right now than it was in 2018, and that's not even adjusted. Canada's index is averaging around $60 a barrel.

Basically, on paper (from what my limited abilities, and experience can gather), things are heading in a direction where prices are at least going to stabilize where they are currently, and might possibly continue to overall go down; but not by much. Then again, we're still in the heart of hurricane season, so who knows whether some platforms, or refineries are going to be neutered by mother nature. If the economy hangs in there, we might also see a lot more spending and traveling come the holidays, driving demand up, and increasing prices.
It's really a crap shoot. By now, we all should understand that the U.S. government can do little about the price of crude oil. We're a price taker, not a price maker. The demand for heating oil will certainly increase over the winter, but we should see some of the effect of that in futures markets by now, I imagine.

The world seems to be headed toward a global recession, led this time by Germany. I don't see how the U.S. avoids that. The fed is trying to clamp down hard on inflation by raising interest rates, but it's tricky because the last thing the fed wants to do is slam the brakes on the economy just as it's heading into a recession. But that's why I'm not fed chairman.

I think we're learning how hard it is to rebalance the global economy after a significant disruption. I'm still inclined to blame just in time inventory. The economy can calibrate best when there is some slack in the system to cushion short term swings. Now, we just don't have the slack. So, a short term swing can lead to overcorrections that make the balance between supply and demand even worse.

And the disruptions just keep coming. Puerto Rico was hammered again, and certain pharmaceuticals and other medical treatments are manufactured primarily or only in Puerto Rico. As the frequency of extreme weather events increases due to climate change, short and long term disruptions in the supply chain will also increase. There simply may not be enough resiliency in the system to fully return to anything like an equilibrium.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Inflation, anecdotally speaking, appears to be more like around 33% so far this year. It’s too bad Biden won’t press his anti-inflation button so when retailers are increasing prices Hawkeye doesn’t have to pay $3 for a Gatorade. Not that I’d hope anyone on the Right would or could understand this, but when you charge nothing to lenders for mortgage rates so they can sell houses to us for 2% or whatever you’re going to have massive inflation. Everything is predicated on mortgage and rental rates here in ‘merica. I’m glad to see the Fed pump the brakes on the massive devaluation of the dollar we saw under Trump.

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