Biden's Economy?

[Gunnar]

You might appreciate this article from Fortune on this subject:

https://fortune.com/2024/01/08/narrativ ... arsely-api

Political pundits are scratching their heads trying to figure out why so many people report that they are feeling economic hardship at a time when many of the standard economic measures are strong. By most traditional accounts, the U.S. economy is in excellent shape. But the average American’s confidence in the economy has been plunging to numbers not seen since 2008.

Our research on organizing to advance big, transformative change teaches us two insights.

First, we need to help people make sense of their world, not tell them what to think. That means listening closely to people’s experiences. If they’re afraid they can’t pay their bills, we need to help them make sense of that lived reality. That starts by taking that lived reality seriously, not just telling people things are fine.

When we listen to people, it becomes clear that aggregate statistics no longer reflect the reality most people live in. Unemployment may be low, but if you can only find work at low wages and irregular hours, things aren’t fine. Inflation may be dropping, but if your paycheck no longer covers your rent (the way we measure inflation doesn’t adequately capture housing costs), things aren’t fine. If you’re two percent better off than last year, but you were on the edge of disaster last year, things aren’t fine.

We need to talk about that reality–economic inequality, corporate power, and economic insecurity.

Granted all the above, but if anyone still thinks they would be somehow better off than, or even as well off as they are now if Trump regains the Presidency, they are seriously and tragically delusional and under-informed.

[honorentheos]

I don't disagree. But the challenges folks face transcend party politics. Inevitably when people don't sense their own lives economic situation is stable, they opt to either vote for change or not vote. In the US, encouraging folks to not vote who might otherwise vote against ones preferred candidate is a major aim of negative campaigning. It's far easier to convince someone their vote doesn't matter or their life is going to be the same regardless of who is elected than it is to convince them to change their opinion enough their vote changes. The issue with the economy isn't with folks like Ajax who are going to vote Republican regardless and claim only Republicans can provide positive economic results. Or, his mirrored Democrat equivalent for that matter. In 2024 it's about how many people are Trump v Biden and decide it's pointless. The grind of the campaign season and neverending ads, the influence of negative campaigning that successfully tints a candidate as too old, too out of touch, possibly corrupt but more likely just senile and being taken advantage of by corrupt others...the feeling one is just getting by or worse becomes one more major reason to view the election with no enthusiasm or hope for the result to matter.

In 2020 folks turned out because Trump was rightly seen as a threat to democracy and were willing to vote in historic numbers. Will that motivate enough people in 2024? It's questionable.

[Vēritās]

I don't disagree. But the challenges folks face transcend party politics. Inevitably when people don't sense their own lives economic situation is stable, they opt to either vote for change or not vote. In the US, encouraging folks to not vote who might otherwise vote against ones preferred candidate is a major aim of negative campaigning. It's far easier to convince someone their vote doesn't matter or their life is going to be the same regardless of who is elected than it is to convince them to change their opinion enough their vote changes. The issue with the economy isn't with folks like Ajax who are going to vote Republican regardless and claim only Republicans can provide positive economic results. Or, his mirrored Democrat equivalent for that matter. In 2024 it's about how many people are Trump v Biden and decide it's pointless. The grind of the campaign season and neverending ads, the influence of negative campaigning that successfully tints a candidate as too old, too out of touch, possibly corrupt but more likely just senile and being taken advantage of by corrupt others...the feeling one is just getting by or worse becomes one more major reason to view the election with no enthusiasm or hope for the result to matter.

In 2020 folks turned out because Trump was rightly seen as a threat to democracy and were willing to vote in historic numbers. Will that motivate enough people in 2024? It's questionable.

A complacent electorate is partly why Trump won in 2016. Few were actually enthused about Hillary but at the same time no one really thought Trump could win. Couple that with the Comey letter and you get President who doesn't even come close to winning the popular vote. My biggest fear this time around is that Trump's corrupt courts will delay his imprisonment until after the election and the electorate will again be too complacent thinking there is no way in hell Trump could win another election after all of the crimes he's committed.

[ajax18]

In 2020 folks turned out because Trump was rightly seen as a threat to democracy and were willing to vote in historic numbers. Will that motivate enough people in 2024? It's questionable.

You'll have to reinstitute "cheat by mail." Given that the WHO now holds sole authority to declare an emergency and lock down the country, the democrat ground game of using taxpayer employed leftist activists to harvest ballots from nursing homes, group homes, and perhaps even just make up some votes is going to be key for Democrats. This might take the form of a new COVID variant or you could just say that due to the climate change crisis we have to now vote by mail instead of going to the polls. This in conjunction with the lawfare and weaponization of the Justice department to disenfranchise the right should still be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Democrats regardless of peoples lived economic experience.

[honorentheos]

In 2020 folks turned out because Trump was rightly seen as a threat to democracy and were willing to vote in historic numbers. Will that motivate enough people in 2024? It's questionable.

You'll have to reinstitute "cheat by mail." Given that the WHO now holds sole authority to declare an emergency and lock down the country, the democrat ground game of using taxpayer employed leftist activists to harvest ballots from nursing homes, group homes, and perhaps even just make up some votes is going to be key for Democrats. This might take the form of a new COVID variant or you could just say that due to the climate change crisis we have to now vote by mail instead of going to the polls. This in conjunction with the lawfare and weaponization of the Justice department to disenfranchise the right should still be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Democrats regardless of peoples lived economic experience.

Ajax, everything you post is so detached from reality now you may as well be standing on the corner shouting it while holding a cardboard sign. Seriously, do you ever spend time researching the facts behind what you consume?

[Gadianton]

Given that the WHO now holds sole authority to declare an emergency and lock down the country,

Thanks for answering my question, Ajax. So the reason why the election is already stolen is because the World Health Organization holds so much power, that at anytime, they can create a fake emergency and the ripple effect will somehow turn the tides of a Trump win to a Biden win?

Have you ever considered that liberals are a whole lot smarter than you give us credit for if we can shape world events with such precision by such subtle means?

Of course, you're very smart also for being able to figure out our plans.

[Res Ipsa]

Given that the WHO now holds sole authority to declare an emergency and lock down the country,

Thanks for answering my question, Ajax. So the reason why the election is already stolen is because the World Health Organization holds so much power, that at anytime, they can create a fake emergency and the ripple effect will somehow turn the tides of a Trump win to a Biden win?

Have you ever considered that liberals are a whole lot smarter than you give us credit for if we can shape world events with such precision by such subtle means?

Of course, you're very smart also for being able to figure out our plans.

This is the most absurd claim Ajax has made lately, which is saying lots. The WHO has no power whatsoever to "lock down" a country. During the early pandemic, they repeatedly urged countries NOT to lock down. They, like every other person with half a brain who was paying attention, knew that lock downs were last-ditch temporary measures to prevent overrunning hospitals.

[ajax18]

You'll have to reinstitute "cheat by mail." Given that the WHO now holds sole authority to declare an emergency and lock down the country, the democrat ground game of using taxpayer employed leftist activists to harvest ballots from nursing homes, group homes, and perhaps even just make up some votes is going to be key for Democrats. This might take the form of a new COVID variant or you could just say that due to the climate change crisis we have to now vote by mail instead of going to the polls. This in conjunction with the lawfare and weaponization of the Justice department to disenfranchise the right should still be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Democrats regardless of peoples lived economic experience.

Ajax, everything you post is so detached from reality now you may as well be standing on the corner shouting it while holding a cardboard sign. Seriously, do you ever spend time researching the facts behind what you consume?

As Gunnar says, "The economy is great. People believe that groceries are 30% more expensive because Democrats have failed to message and educate the public properly." And while the perception of high prices and inflation between now and four years ago exist, don't worry about it. Just keep that border wide open and ramp up the processing of illegal immigrants into Deomcrat voters and you'll never lose an election again.

[Res Ipsa]

Paul Krugman published a great column today about the economy, addressing the divergence between the actual condition of the economy and the public perception of the economy. The TL/DR -- today's Rublicans assess the economy based solely on who is president. Democrats assess the economy based mainly on the economy.

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.ny ... fe4915dd80

So maybe we should at least entertain the hypothesis that the historically anomalous behavior of consumer sentiment reflects the historically anomalous nature of the modern G.O.P., two-thirds of whose supporters believe — based on no evidence — that the 2020 election was stolen. Maybe economic polling, like everything else with this crowd, is all about MAGA.

...

In any case, the general point is that you just can’t interpret surveys of economic sentiment, or for that matter anything else, without taking into account the fact that the modern G.O.P. bears no resemblance to the Republican Party of past years, or for that matter any political party in modern U.S. history.

[Gunnar]

Paul Krugman published a great column today about the economy, addressing the divergence between the actual condition of the economy and the public perception of the economy. The TL/DR -- today's Rublicans assess the economy based solely on who is president. Democrats assess the economy based mainly on the economy.

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.ny ... fe4915dd80

So maybe we should at least entertain the hypothesis that the historically anomalous behavior of consumer sentiment reflects the historically anomalous nature of the modern G.O.P., two-thirds of whose supporters believe — based on no evidence — that the 2020 election was stolen. Maybe economic polling, like everything else with this crowd, is all about MAGA.

...

In any case, the general point is that you just can’t interpret surveys of economic sentiment, or for that matter anything else, without taking into account the fact that the modern G.O.P. bears no resemblance to the Republican Party of past years, or for that matter any political party in modern U.S. history.

Which is why I left the G.O.P. years ago, and will almost certainly never entertain the even slightest possibility of ever going back to it. This is remarkable and tragic in the light of the fact that the very first Republican President was arguably the best President we ever had!