Biden's Economy?

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Hawkeye
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

Bidenpression: U.S. GDP Shrinks 0.9 Percent in Second Quarter

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President Joe Biden listens during a virtual meeting with Democratic governors on the issue of abortion rights, in the South Court Auditorium on the
The U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter of 2022 as the economy was battered by four-decade high inflation, record high fuel prices, soaring food costs, and tighter monetary policy.

The government reported Thursday that Gross Domestic Product shrank by 0.9 percent in the April through June period. Economists had expected the economy to grow by 0.3 percent, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The economy contracted by 1.6 percent in the second quarter. Many Americans consider two straight quarters of recession to be the marker of a recession. Economists, however, rely on the determination of the National Bureau of Economic Research to say when a recession starts. The NBER has a more complex and subjective definition of recessions and typically does not declare a recession until several months after it has begun.

The decrease in GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. These were partly offset by increases in exports and household spending.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/ ... d-quarter/

Get used to little or no ecoomic growth. Get used to high gas prices. Get used to lockdowns.
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
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honorentheos
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by honorentheos »

It's pretty likely we are in the early stages of recession. Inflation has impacted spending which is, in turn, impacting hiring.

The Biden administration screwed up when they undersold the impacts of inflation. It's a lesson politicians should learn from. Wonky talk about economics is for meetings, the public messaging should be built on empathy for even small negative changes in people's lives.

The correction this recession represents has its roots entirely in Trump activities, though. More than any President in my lifetime, he put near-term growth metrics over long term economic health and the bills are coming due.
Vēritās
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:15 pm
and since day one many have been predicting a recession would be necessary to halt inflation in its tracks.
Was that what you and Janet Yellen meant when you were saying that inflation was only transitory a year ago?
Yes, that was first stated by Trump's appointee Jerome Powell, and echoed by Yellen and the administration. And they were correct. Again, you don't get to redefine terms to suit your political agenda. It is either transitory or permanent, and no economist in their right mind thinks inflation is permanent. It could last another year and still be transitory. You so desperately want transitory to mean "last only a few months" or some crap.

The fact is we know why we have inflation and it is for all the good reasons; booming economy, strong job market, rising wages, etc. We also know the bad reasons for it and economists understand those were out of everyone's control; pandemic induced bottle necks. All the data suggests we're getting back on track. There are more people Americans working today than at any time in history, and there are currently 11 million jobs with only 5 million people looking for work.
Vēritās
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

honorentheos wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:52 pm
It's pretty likely we are in the early stages of recession. Inflation has impacted spending which is, in turn, impacting hiring.

The Biden administration screwed up when they undersold the impacts of inflation. It's a lesson politicians should learn from. Wonky talk about economics is for meetings, the public messaging should be built on empathy for even small negative changes in people's lives.

The correction this recession represents has its roots entirely in Trump activities, though. More than any President in my lifetime, he put near-term growth metrics over long term economic health and the bills are coming due.
Yep, we've already established Trump's actions as the precursor to today's inflation. From shutting down global oil production to causing dozens of oil companies to file bankruptcy. From shutting down microchip manufacturing abroad to his idiotic trade war tariffs. And let's not forget he more than quadrupled the money supply in just short four year stint, which is why millions of Americans are driving up prices on everything by spending like crazy.

Ajax/Hawkeye doesn't seem to remember we were in a recession back in 2020 without there being two negative quarters of real GDP. A recession was declared literally overnight and lasted only a couple of months. This in and itself disproves his preferred definition for the term. Obviously there are many things that come into play.

It is also worth mentioning that the drop in GDP wasn't substantial and future revisions could actually bump it into positive territory.

I'm OK with recessions like this for the same reason I'm OK with market corrections. The Economy grew at a record rate in 2021, it was completely on fire and it was driving up inflation. A cool down is called for.
Last edited by Vēritās on Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Vēritās
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:50 pm
ReAD wut BrigHTfaRT hAs To SaY
It's cute that you're still regurgitating this fake news site, thinking anyone actually reads it.
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canpakes
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by canpakes »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:50 pm
Bidenpression: U.S. GDP Shrinks 0.9 Percent in Second Quarter.

Surprising. We’ve certainly seen wider swings in past days.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

I think that trying to lay all that stuff on Trump vastly oversimplifies what went on on pre-inflation. The tax cut was largely created by McConnell and McCarthy. Trump essential just signed it. in my opinion, lobbying OPEC to slow production during the early years of the pandemic was the right thing to do — otherwise we’d have seen many more bankruptcies among US oil industry companies. The microchip shortages is a complex issue that has undoubtedly been impacted by China’s approach to COVID. Because tariffs work on the demand side, I don’t think it’s clear that the tariffs themselves caused supply reductions.

The economy is in a an odd situation. There were several articles in the last month talking about retailers accumulating huge inventories. That could mean that production was ramped up to quickly in the 4th quarter of 2021, but retailers ordered the wrong kinds of inventory. So orders were cut back, with slower production in the first two quarters of this year. People saved a ton of money during the pandemic, and anticipating once the pent up demand was released was a fussing game. The correct guess seems to be travel, which led to rises in petroleum prices. Supply and demand shocks take time for the economy to adjust to.

And the strength of the job market combined with falling GDP is unusual. I read a statistic that there are two US jobs open for every unemployed person (people out of work who are actively looking for work). Older folks who retired during the worst of the pandemic are trickling back into the labor force. And the Great Resignation may turn out to be more of a sabbatical than a permanent shift.

Right now, I see no reason to panic. We’ve got to see w what the new normal is going to look like.
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Hawkeye
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

The only reason this isn't twice as bad as it already is are the red states people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly disparaged and privately vacationed in. We went back to work while Californians were hiding in fear and many were just scamming the system.

I love how when gas goes up to $5/gallon it's Putin's fault. Then when it drops 50 cents we're supposed to credit Biden. Wow inflation dropped from 9% to 7%. This administration must be really good at its job. Forget about 2% inflation. That's gone.
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:02 pm
The only reason this isn't twice as bad as it already is are the red states people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly disparaged and privately vacationed in. We went back to work while Californians were hiding in fear and many were just scamming the system.

I love how when gas goes up to $5/gallon it's Putin's fault. Then when it drops 50 cents we're supposed to credit Biden. Wow inflation dropped from 9% to 7%. This administration must be really good at its job. Forget about 2% inflation. That's gone.
Ajax, the blue states were always working. Some a little less than others. Washington had only a temporary, small tax tax decrease, and then picked right back up. You haven't and can't show that red states somehow "carried" blue states during the pandemic. Heck, you can't even show that the red states made up for the fact that they pay less than the blue states to the feds than they receive. If you want to make an issue out of this, be my guest: we're carrying you because you don't address things like healthcare and safety nets for the poor so that you can have a healthy, dependable work force. Suicide is currently highest among young men in red states. Why? Because you give them no future. You strand them in low paying, dead end jobs in dying sectors of the economy.

Are you always this hair on fire about short-term economic data? We've walked you through the factors that led to high gasoline prices, of which the boycotts on Russsian petroleum were one factor. That's a far cry from blaming Putin for the entire increase. You whine when inflation increases and then when it decreases. Where inflation will end up depends, in large part, on what the federal reserve does about the money supply. But, whether you like it or not, the economy is globalized, and that's what never going back. But I wouldn't be surprised to see 2% inflation again in a year, depending on what chronic COVID looks like and how long the war drags on.
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Vēritās
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:58 pm
Hawkeye wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:02 pm
The only reason this isn't twice as bad as it already is are the red states people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly disparaged and privately vacationed in. We went back to work while Californians were hiding in fear and many were just scamming the system.

I love how when gas goes up to $5/gallon it's Putin's fault. Then when it drops 50 cents we're supposed to credit Biden. Wow inflation dropped from 9% to 7%. This administration must be really good at its job. Forget about 2% inflation. That's gone.
Ajax, the blue states were always working. Some a little less than others. Washington had only a temporary, small tax tax decrease, and then picked right back up. You haven't and can't show that red states somehow "carried" blue states during the pandemic. Heck, you can't even show that the red states made up for the fact that they pay less than the blue states to the feds than they receive. If you want to make an issue out of this, be my guest: we're carrying you because you don't address things like healthcare and safety nets for the poor so that you can have a healthy, dependable work force. Suicide is currently highest among young men in red states. Why? Because you give them no future. You strand them in low paying, dead end jobs in dying sectors of the economy.

Are you always this hair on fire about short-term economic data? We've walked you through the factors that led to high gasoline prices, of which the boycotts on Russsian petroleum were one factor. That's a far cry from blaming Putin for the entire increase. You whine when inflation increases and then when it decreases. Where inflation will end up depends, in large part, on what the federal reserve does about the money supply. But, whether you like it or not, the economy is globalized, and that's what never going back. But I wouldn't be surprised to see 2% inflation again in a year, depending on what chronic COVID looks like and how long the war drags on.
I love how he keeps referencing $5 gasoline, as if that's the norm everywhere. The national avg barely touched $5 and that lasted for like a day, but it has been dropping ever since without ajax acknowledging it. A full $.75 cents in just a six week period which is insane.

This is like me talking about Trump's 14.7% unemployment rate, which I never do, because it didn't last long.
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