cinepro wrote:beastie wrote:I'm curious about this. Normally, when the incumbent had approval ratings below 50 (which Obama did at the beginning of the election cycle) and unemployment at 8%, conventional wisdom is that the challenger will win. Why did you have such low expectations for Romney?
I just remember the amount of "energy" there was for Obama last time round. The songs, the iconography, the stadiums. There was a huge amount of love and support. I even teared up (for joy) the night he was elected, because even though he was a Democrat and I hadn't voted for him, I was overwhelmed to see our first black president. It was a huge historical moment.
I also haven't been effected with the same loathing and disdain that many other conservatives have towards him. While I almost totally disagree with him politically, I still really like the guy. I know people who can't stand the way he walks and talks and have a real personal revulsion for him, but I just don't have a problem with him on that level.
On the other hand, Romney just doesn't do much for me. And as a white, middle class, conservative Mormon, that has always really worried me. If Romney can't connect with me, then what does that mean for everyone else. I respect him and think he would be a much better president, but there just isn't that "spark". And as I told my brother-in-law four years ago, I firmly believed that for the Republicans to win in 2012 they would need a "certified rock star".
Romney is many things, but he's not a rock star. So while I understand all the statistics and data that argue why Romney "should" win, if he doesn't, I'll always argue that it was because he just couldn't connect.
I think a lot of the enthusiasm gap (at least compared to 2008 for Obama) is that we're exhausted as a country. For four straight years people have been hearing about this election and on the Right how we need to vote out the communist socialist Kenyan before he destroys the country. I don't recall Clinton (at least until the Lewinsky scandal) or even Bush being assaulted in the media constantly about their backgrounds or whatever. Most people are straight up sick of hearing about it.
We've had a four year period of recession and then a slow moving recovery. In addition the four years have brought us gridlock of an unprecedented scale. Even when the Democrats had both houses the Republicans had enough votes to filibuster in the Senate which meant de facto gridlock. I think people are tired of the lack of economic growth, and Obama has caught the brunt of it because he's the public face of the American government. A lot of low information voters don't know who Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are but Obama is on TV everyday.
People also got to know Obama and realized that he was just another politician. A very good politician but certainly not apolitical enough to lead us into a post-racial/post-partisan America, despite any efforts on his part. He's not new anymore, he's just a moderate corporatist Democrat/Republican Lite who happens to be black. He's very remarkable but people must realize he's just a man, and any man has to have some deep burning fire to get to the Presidency. No one can "aw shucks" their way to the Presidency in this day and age "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington" style.
His campaign also seems more corporate (with hundreds of offices and an intense ground game) in part because of the Citizens United ruling which has introduced literally billions into the campaign. It's not like a half-assed operation with any grass roots newness. His campaign is deeply cynical (as is Romney's) and is aimed not only at a few states but often a few counties. He's also the incumbent, and thus "the man" to young people and contrarians, meaning he's inherently not the cool thing anymore.
Still he's on track to win. If he wins the Republicans are going to have to do some soul searching because it's only going to get worse for them demographically.