Predicting Obama's October surprise

[_bcspace]

... now that he really really needs one.

Will he wag the dog or make a secret deal with Iran (temporary halt to enriched uranium production in exchange for lifting of some sanctions)? Declaration of a Palestinian state? More free stuff for all? Something sordid from Romney's past? More cooking the books on employment or begging companies not to layoff workers until after the election? A Mormon issue?

What?

[_Bob Loblaw]

I have no idea. I think they held off on the "47%" thing until things got tight in the polls, but I don't know what other cards they have to play. The problem with the Iran thing is that Ahmedinajad has no interest in cutting a deal with the US. This is a guy who thinks he is universally loved around the world and believes that the BS peddled by Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela is an accurate reflection of reality.

As for the unemployment figures, I don't think the books were cooked, but the way they were reported by the press makes them sound a lot better than they actually were. 114,000 jobs a month doesn't keep up with demographic growth.

[_beastie]

I think the October surprise will be a bunch of ads with clips from the debate, showing the contrast between what Romney said then and what he said previously in his campaign.

[_bcspace]

As for the unemployment figures, I don't think the books were cooked, but the way they were reported by the press makes them sound a lot better than they actually were. 114,000 jobs a month doesn't keep up with demographic growth.

Jobs growth in Sept was less than in Aug which was less than in Jun.....etc.

I think the October surprise will be a bunch of ads with clips from the debate, showing the contrast between what Romney said then and what he said previously in his campaign.

Romney would be able to counter with the similar so it would just be warring ads and not a surprise. The debate was the time to do it and Obama missed that opportunity.

[_beastie]

Yes, Mitt would be able to find a few examples from the debate, but they would be far outnumbered by Mitt's. He was pretty extreme, even for a politician.

I envision the ad flipping back and forth between these contradictions with clips of the dancing horse in-between, reminiscent of Kerry's flip-flop ads.

No, it isn't technically an October surprise, but it's still what I hope to see.

[_Bret Ripley]

... now that he really really needs one.

The Romney temple video?

<ducks> What? What?

[_Bob Loblaw]

I think the October surprise will be a bunch of ads with clips from the debate, showing the contrast between what Romney said then and what he said previously in his campaign.

That is the Democratic mantra: he's changed his positions. That it's not true is beside the point.

[_bcspace]

Yes, Mitt would be able to find a few examples from the debate

It wouldn't have to be from the debate. Could merely be the plethora of broken 2008 campaign promises such as cutting the deficit in half or more open government. Obama can't find any regarding Romney from the debate without lying or committing Fortigurn's Lazy Research.

You guys will just have to move along on that one. Obama lost big and there's no way to go back and fix it. I predict he'll come out swinging in the next debate but will lose more voters because that's not appropriate in the town hall venue.

[_Bob Loblaw]

This might count:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... evens.html

[_bcspace]

... now that he really really needs one.

The Romney temple video?

No effect. Too boring

The problem with the Iran thing is that Ahmadinejad has no interest in cutting a deal with the US

Yet Obama is currently begging Iran for just such a deal and asking for Ahmadinejad's forgiveness about that central bank thingy blaming it on Congress for tying his hands (when that never stopped him before).

October Surprise? Obama secret Iran deal cut - Look for announcement of temporary halt to uranium enrichment