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Rasmussen confirms Gallup: R-50 O-45, O-237 R-235 Toss-66
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 4:54 pm
by _bcspace
Re: Rasmussen confirms Gallup: R-50 O-45, O-237 R-235 Toss-6
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:09 pm
by _cinepro
Interesting...
Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months. See daily tracking history.
Romney attracts support from 89% of Republican voters. The president earns the vote from 82% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, the GOP challenger leads by nine.
But what's going to happen in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
Re: Rasmussen confirms Gallup: R-50 O-45, O-237 R-235 Toss-6
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:29 pm
by _bcspace
But what's going to happen in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania?
Going to be tight at the moment. Without toss ups, Romney gets Florida and PA but loses OH. Obama is only up by 1 or 2 in OH. Romney is only up by 1 or 2 in Florida. Romney can still win without OH and/or PA, but he must pick up all those "little" states which will be difficult if all the eggs are in OH.
Turnout turnout turnout.
However, if the slow but steady Romney trend continues, then a Romney victory doesn't seem to be a problem. Also, if it's true that it's incorrect for some polls to be based on a 2008 type of turnout, then Romney has it in the bag now. Also, PA remains in play. Polling nationally under 50%, especially if some polls are skewed Democratic, is Obama's death sentence.
Re: Rasmussen confirms Gallup: R-50 O-45, O-237 R-235 Toss-6
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:18 am
by _Brackite
The Gallup Poll among registered voters now has Romney at 48%, and it now has Obama at 47%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx in my opinion, the Gallup Poll among registered voters is more accurate than the Gallup Poll among likely voters and the Rasmussen Poll. I think that Romney is up at about 2% over Obama Nationwide right now.
Re: Rasmussen confirms Gallup: R-50 O-45, O-237 R-235 Toss-6
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:35 am
by _EAllusion
Brackite wrote: in my opinion, the Gallup Poll among registered voters is more accurate than the Gallup Poll among likely voters and the Rasmussen Poll. I think that Romney is up at about 2% over Obama Nationwide right now.
Prof Sam Wang does the best job I'm aware of aggregating raw poll data. This is what the picture looks like now:
The difference between this and Silver's system is that Silver weights polls based on quality measures and partisan house leans where as this is just a raw aggregation of polling. The difference between this and RCP's average is that RCP takes into account a more narrow band of polls with its methodology.