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The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:25 pm
by _Kevin Graham

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:39 am
by _cinepro
Since there's no such thing as a free lunch, I would agree that the stimulus provided "lunch", but we need to ask at what cost?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h_rDrd97sY

But while I'm almost always in favor of less government intervention, and was opposed to most actions the government was taking in 2008-2009 to try and fix the economy, I'm certainly grateful for any of those actions that end well.


http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:37 pm
by _Droopy
cinepro wrote:Since there's no such thing as a free lunch, I would agree that the stimulus provided "lunch", but we need to ask at what cost?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h_rDrd97sY

But while I'm almost always in favor of less government intervention, and was opposed to most actions the government was taking in 2008-2009 to try and fix the economy, I'm certainly grateful for any of those actions that end well.


http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list



Graham is too far gone, Cine. You do put up a good and honorable fight, though.

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:41 pm
by _Kevin Graham
What fight? This isn't even a disputable point anymore. The vast majority of economists agree the stimulus worked. Period. We've already gone through this before. There were seven studies that addressed this and only one or two, run by Right Wing think tanks, came to the conclusion it didn't work. All the others concluded the opposite.

And now with all this stupid sequester business, we're learning more than ever than austerity measures in the form of drastic cuts in government spending, lead to a depressed economy. Even Republicans are admitting it. But Republicans only care about the well being of America and its economy when they have one of their guys in office so they can take credit for it. As it is, they want to economy to suck as much as possible so they can pin it all on the President. Hence, this sudden interest in deficit spending. I mean you have to been a true moron to not understand how the stimulus saved us from a depression. The data in the video is perfectly clear.

REPUBLICAN LEADER FINALLY ADMITS THAT FEDERAL SPENDING CUTS KILL JOBS

It’s an article of faith amongst Republicans that government can’t create jobs, and that cutting government spending will lead to job growth. Republicans even pushed the nation to the brink of a debt default in order to secure cuts in federal spending in 2010.

But with the consequences of that debt ceiling deal due to hit in January — at which point the so-called “sequester” will cut into both military and non-defense discretionary spending — House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) is seemingly having a change of heart. On Thursday he tweeted that the sequester would hurt federal spending in key areas, and thus kill jobs:

Image

Earlier this week, Cantor was unable to name a single deal Republicans would be willing to make to prevent the slew of cuts — cuts that Cantor himself voted for. Plus, as the Bipartisan Policy Center reports, the House Republican budget that Cantor supported cuts “more than double the amount” of the sequester. This budget would sink domestic spending to its lowest level in 50 years. Meanwhile it prevents cuts to military spending already endorsed by military leaders.

This chart shows that the House Republican’s budget cuts non-defense spending dramatically. The “BCA+sequester” line is the path of non-defense discretionary spending under both the debt ceiling deal (the Budget Control Act and its sequester), while the light blue line is the Republican budget:

Image

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:58 pm
by _Kevin Graham
Sequester cuts hit home for Republicans

The looming across-the-board budget cuts that could put scores of Americans out of work next year are all President Barack Obama’s fault.

That’s according to congressional Republicans — the majority of whom voted for the deal that laid the groundwork for the cuts in the first place.

But Republicans who backed the sequester arrangement then aren’t making any apologies now. Staving off the catastrophic sequester cuts is on Obama and Senate Democrats, they say — even if they knew the developing standoff was a distinct possibility when they signed off on the sequester deal. It may have seemed like a fine idea at the time, but now that the reality of steep cuts to the military are coming into focus, Republican lawmakers don’t like what they see.

Rep. Buck McKeon, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and one of the most outspoken critics of the automatic defense cuts, is one of the few members to admit he now regrets voting for the Budget Control Act.

The California Republican “was assured by his leadership that the cuts won’t happen,” said his spokesman, Claude Chafin. Still, Chafin said, it’s the Democrats — and not GOP leaders — who are solely to blame.

“What [McKeon] regrets — and I think what everybody regrets — is that when they voted for the Budget Control Act, the deal was that the other side, the president and Senate Democrats, would be honest brokers in negotiations,” Chafin added. “That never came to fruition.”

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) wouldn’t go so far as to say she regretted her vote but certainly didn’t like the situation Congress has now found itself in.

“I was assured by leadership that when I agreed to vote for the Budget Control Act — which I did to prevent our country from defaulting on its obligations — that sequestration would never happen, that it was such a dire remedy that it would force the supercommittee to act, and obviously that proved not to be true,” Collins said. “Whether I would have voted the same way now, who knows, but I was very concerned about preventing a default.”

With no solution in sight, the blame game on both sides of the Capitol has kicked into high gear.
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) said it’s fair to pin the current situation on Democrats because he argues the supercommittee’s failure was their fault. He voted for the Budget Control Act because he firmly believed the supercommittee would come up with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts.

“I knew how difficult sequestration would be, and I ended up supporting the overall budget deal,” said Kyl, who served on the supercommittee. “I couldn’t conceive of people being so pig-headed, so stubborn, so willing to see our economy go up in flames as apparently our Democratic friends are willing to be. I knew it would be political, but I didn’t think they would literally shoot the hostage.”

Across the Capitol, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer charged that Republicans are trying to “have it both ways” on the defense cuts. He said Democrats wanted a clean vote on increasing the debt limit but Republicans had insisted on imposing “a fiscal discipline.” Ninety-five Democrats joined 174 Republicans to pass the law in the House.

“They imposed a fiscal discipline, and now they don’t want to live with the fiscal discipline, so yes, now they want to have it both ways,” said Hoyer (D-Md.). “Their observation that sequestration will have a detrimental effect on defense is correct. … It will also have a detrimental effect on Medicare.”

Hoyer indicated that congressional Democrats would be willing to replace the sequester cuts if Congress could come up with a “bold, balanced plan.”

“I think we can do that if the Republicans don’t walk away, as they have in the past, from reaching an agreement,” he said.

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:09 pm
by _Kevin Graham
Democratic Congressman Destroys GOP Hypocrisy On Looming Budget Cuts

On ABC’s This Week Sunday morning, Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) called out Tom Cole (R-OK) for his claim that President Obama is responsible for the automatic budget cuts set to go into effect if Congress cannot reach a budget deal by March. The so-called “sequester” includes steep defense cuts intended to motivate Republicans who refused to agree to any deal that included a tax increase in 2011.
When Cole tried to pin the cuts on Obama, Ellison reminded him that Cole himself voted for the Budget Control Act that created the sequester:

COLE: I think it is inevitable. This was a presidential suggestion back in 2011, an idea. And yet the president himself hasn’t put out any alternatives. Republicans twice in the House have passed legislation to deal with it, once as early as last May and again after the election in December. Senate never picked up either of those bills, never offered their own thing. Now we’re three weeks out, and folks are worried. They ought to be worried. On the other hand, these cuts are going to occur. [...]

ELLISON: Well, Tom, the problem with saying this is the president’s idea is that you voted for the Budget Control Act. I voted against it. We wouldn’t have ever been talking about the Budget Control Act but for your party refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling something that has been routinely increased as the country needed it. You used that occasion in 2011 August to basically say we are going to default on the country’s obligations or you’re going to give us dramatic spending cuts. That’s how we got to the Budget Control Act.

As Ellison points out, Republican lawmakers brought the country to the brink of default while trying to extract devastating spending cuts from Democrats. The Budget Control Act was an eleventh hour deal to avoid an economic shutdown. Even so, the debt ceiling fight resulted in the nation’s first ever credit downgrade and $18.9 billion in wasted taxpayer dollars.

Essential government programs are already feeling the effects of the Budget Control Act; domestic spending in food safety, education, Social Security, and poverty assistance programs has plummeted to historic lows thanks to the act’s future spending caps. If Congress cannot come to an agreement by March, even more cuts will further cripple these already vulnerable programs.

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:05 am
by _Gadianton
No way I would trust the "think progress" site to tell me that economists universally agree on something. Fortunately, the University of Chicago has stepped up to the plate to address the question about what economists believe vs. what blogs and think tanks say economists believe. And they address this question. Did ARRA add jobs?

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic- ... LNJL1oz4Xi

see also:

http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/07/25/ ... conomists/

The overwhelming consensus is that the stimulus "worked," it created jobs. Kevin may be close when he says, "It’s an article of faith amongst Republicans that government can’t create jobs". This is unfortunate, because it presents the stimulus with a very low bar to hop over. Republicans who apparently take dollar-for-dollar crowding out so seriously that they'd suppose for each job added that precisely one job should be subtracted in all scenarios set themselves up for an easy defeat.

But the natural follow up question produces more uncertainty, do the benefits of the stimulus outweigh the costs, all factors considered?

The 80% of economists who agreed the stimulus added jobs dropped to 46% who agreed the jobs are cost justified. Some interesting perspectives from panelists. Austan Goolsbee, who worked for you know who, who "strongly agreed" with a confidence level of 9/10 that ARRA added jobs, only "agreed" with a confidence level of 5 that they are cost justified, noting, "it's not free." One panelist who agreed jobs were added cited this study that considers cost:

http://www.nber.org/digest/jul11/w16759.html

175,000$ of spending per job. Maybe good enough, maybe not, but certainly not free. Another agreeing panelist to the first question with high confidence noted, "But this is an incredibly low bar." As I mentioned, but, considering many republicans seem to have set this bar themselves, can't fault the quesiton too much.

An MIT professor noted, "Feedback effects too complicated to calculate. My best guess is that the program was marginally beneficial, but monetary easing helped more." Well, this is sort of the point Friedman made about fiscal spending, it's not that it can't ever theoretically work, but monetary policy is orders of magnitude more important.

Anyway, my intent isn't to say the stimulus did or did not work, but to put some perspective on what it means by economists agreeing or disagreeing over whether or not it did.

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:44 am
by _EAllusion
I could've sworn I made this point to Kevin before, so I looked it up and I did. I don't think that was the first time it has been pointed out. I think at this point you just have to accept that Kevin is disingenuously interested in arguing by equivocation that the stimulus "worked" in the sense of its benefits justifying the cost by arguing it had positive economic effects. That the latter is uncontroversial and the former is highly questionable isn't some point he's failing to grasp. He doesn't care. It's a rhetorical talking point and nothing more.

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:46 am
by _Kevin Graham
I may have been in Brazil in early 2009 but I wasn't on the moon. I was up to speed on the situation as it was being fleshed out in the media and as economists were asserting their opinions in the form of petitions and what not. And the fact is economists overwhelmingly supported the stimulus plan and a significant portion of conservatives economists were among them.

Gadianton says I'm relying strictly on Thinkprogress, which is absolute nonsense. I'm relying on survey after survey after survey, and the nine studies that were done on the subject. The only two studies that concluded it didn't work, are by conservatives who had disproving this point as part of their agenda.

Central to this issue is the fight for the hearts and minds of economists who generally fall within two or three schools of thought. All I have ever read since 2009 are conversion stories by prominent economists who went from the Chicago school to the Keynesian school and their conversion was driven by the overwhelming evidence provided by, not only the failure of supply-side economists, but also the victory of Keynesian, deficit spending, as a means to end recessions. And most recently we see overwhelming evidence that austerity measures are failing in places like Europe, which gives the Keynesian economists more reason to smile.

Now, EA thinks he has caught me being disingenuous simply because I don't buy his ridiculous argument. He's essentially saying, "Yes, the stimulus did all these wonderful things that Kevin and most economists point out. Deficit spending during recessions decreased unemployment at a time when we desperately needed it. It increased GDP, stabilized the economy, etc..... BUT that doesn't necessarily mean most economists support the stimulus !"

Yes, what a brilliant way to prove I've been "disingenuous"! EA thinks that certainly it is more reasonable to assume economists disapprove of measures that actually improve the economy, especially during times of crises! :rolleyes:

Re: The stimulus worked (video)

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:12 pm
by _EAllusion
If the federal government simply paid people 100k a year to dig ditches and fill them back up it would have "worked" if we narrowly define that in terms of short term employment numbers and GDP growth. Whether the collective economic benefit was worth the cost, near and long term, is a separate question. You keep citing surveys of economists arguing that the stimulus had a particular economic impact to argue that economists near universally agree that it was a good cost-benefit decision, which at this point is either stubbornly ignorant or dishonest.