Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Icarus
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Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

Post by Icarus »

This is going to be interesting to watch. Fox News’ probability calculations place Biden as the winner.

As of 7:23 am MST this morning:

Fox News has called races that would result in Biden winning 238 Electoral College votes.

Fox calculates a 95% probability that Biden wins Michigan and a 93% probability that Biden wins Wisconsin.

That would put Biden at 264 Electoral College votes out of the 270 needed to win.

Fox calculates a 70% probability that Biden will win Nevada, and those 6 Electoral College votes would give Biden the 270 needed to win, without needing to take Pennsylvania, Georgia, or North Carolina.

If Fox is correct, it may not matter if it takes a couple days to know who won Pennsylvania.

Nevada still needs to count mail-in ballots received on Election Day, mail-in ballots properly postmarked by Election Day but not yet received by yesterday, and provisional ballots. And, they expect to report results next on tomorrow morning at 9 am Pacific Time.

So, maybe Fox News will be able to call Nevada tomorrow morning around 10 am MST.
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Icarus
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Biden is currently down over 550,000 votes in Pennsylvania, which is a 60,000 improvement from what it was a few hours ago. This is supposed to be a close one because there are so many outstanding votes in heavily Democrat areas. What I found interesting is that Biden is currently underperforming by roughly a half million votes in Pennsylvania as compared to Hillary's 2016 haul. But he has overperformed compared to Hillary in just about every other state, including all the surrounding areas of Pennsylvania.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Icarus wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:33 pm
Biden is currently down over 550,000 votes in Pennsylvania, which is a 60,000 improvement from what it was a few hours ago. This is supposed to be a close one because there are so many outstanding votes in heavily Democrat areas. What I found interesting is that Biden is currently underperforming by roughly a half million votes in Pennsylvania as compared to Hillary's 2016 haul. But he has overperformed compared to Hillary in just about every other state, including all the surrounding areas of Pennsylvania.
I think given the large number of absentee/mail-in votes it is nearly impossible to tell how well or not Biden is performing in PA. The better approach is to assume that since he has out performed 2016 in most other states that we should expect to see that same result in PA once the votes are actually counted. Given how well Biden is doing in the suburbs of Michigan and Wisconsin I think we'll see the same kind of results in the collar counties around Phily.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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If Biden wins it will be an impotent presidency from day one. He didn't get any political capital that would accompany a blow-out win; Dems don't have the Senate; and Dems lost 2018 gains in House (a.k.a. a smaller Pelosi caucus).
If Biden wins, it is an anti-Trump win and not a Biden-policy win.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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subgenius wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:56 pm
If Biden wins it will be an impotent presidency from day one. He didn't get any political capital that would accompany a blow-out win; Dems don't have the Senate; and Dems lost 2018 gains in House (a.k.a. a smaller Pelosi caucus).
If Biden wins, it is an anti-Trump win and not a Biden-policy win.
Is this supposed to be news or something?
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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On the current AP map, if each candidate wins the state in which he is currently leading, Biden wins with 270 EV. So, Trump has to find a state currently trending blue and reverse the trend. His problem is that the votes remaining to be counted are very likely to be majority Biden. So where does he pick up that one more state?

Even worse for him, the same trends in uncounted votes could very well flip one of the states he's currently leading in. If Biden wins North Carolina, Trump needs to reverse the trend to pick up 16 EV. Michigan would get him a tie (which is good for Trump, I believe) To win he would need two states. If Biden wins Georgia or PA, Trump has to reverse two blue-trending states.

It looks like Wisconsin is off the table for a Trump reversal.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Here is a good run down from 538 just posted:


Here’s a look at what we know about the outstanding vote in each still-to-be-decided battleground state, as of 12 p.m. ET:

Arizona: While Fox News and the Associated Press have projected Arizona for Biden, the other outlets — including ABC News — have not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. Biden has a 3-point lead over Trump, with 86 percent of the expected vote reported. Maricopa County, where the largest remainder of uncounted ballots are, has finished tabulating all its in-person Election Day votes and will release more results at 9 p.m. tonight.

Nevada: The race is very tight — Biden has a very slight lead — and all in-person votes have been counted. But a count of late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots, which tend to be Democratic, is still to come tomorrow.

Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator has told NBC reporters that all the votes are in. If there’s nothing more to count, then Biden would seem to have won that state by 20,697 votes, but that’s still within the 1 percent margin that would allow the Trump campaign to request a recount, though. Also, just in case you’re seeing one of the many disinformation scams out there, Wisconsin has 3,684,726 active voters and counted 3,288,771 votes. ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the Decision Desk won’t project races where the margin is within 1 percentage point.

Georgia: Trump is ahead in a tight race, but significant votes are outstanding in the Atlanta metro area. The big holdups here appear to be Democratic-leaning DeKalb County, Fulton County, Gwinnett County, and Cobb County. We could have some more information relatively soon, though — Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that he expects most of that vote to be tallied later today, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Michigan: Biden holds a narrow 0.7-point margin here, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said around 11:30 a.m. Eastern that there are still tens of thousands of ballots to count. But the place that appears to have the most outstanding votes is heavily Democratic Wayne County (Detroit), which may make it difficult for Trump to recover here after leading throughout much of the night.

Pennsylvania: Trump is ahead by 9 points with 79 percent of the expected vote in, but the state has “millions of ballots” left to count, according to Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar. This includes about half of its mail-in ballots, which the state was not allowed to start processing until yesterday morning. Many of these votes come from Democratic-leaning areas, like Philadelphia and its collar counties, plus a handful of more Republican-leaning counties in the northwest part of the state. Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday.

Maine: Biden leads here by about 12 points statewide, with 76 percent of the expected vote having been reported. And the ABC News Decision Desk just projected Biden to win the state’s two statewide electoral votes. He also leads in Maine’s 1st Congressional District, 61 percent to 36 percent, so Biden looks on track to get three of Maine’s electoral votes. However, Trump leads 51 percent to 45 percent in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, so he may be able to hold onto its one electoral vote. It appears that the 2nd District, which is mostly in the northern reaches of the state, is where much of the unreported votes are from. But it’s tough to say when we’ll know more, as election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected. Moreover, because of the state’s ranked-choice voting system, any race where no candidate has a majority of first-place votes would then have to go through the reallocation process, which would take a while to complete.

North Carolina: Ninety-five percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Icarus wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:08 pm
subgenius wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:56 pm
If Biden wins it will be an impotent presidency from day one. He didn't get any political capital that would accompany a blow-out win; Dems don't have the Senate; and Dems lost 2018 gains in House (a.k.a. a smaller Pelosi caucus).
If Biden wins, it is an anti-Trump win and not a Biden-policy win.
Is this supposed to be news or something?
I can see how you wouldn't be able to recognize if something was news or not.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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subgenius wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:56 pm
If Biden wins it will be an impotent presidency from day one. He didn't get any political capital that would accompany a blow-out win; Dems don't have the Senate; and Dems lost 2018 gains in House (a.k.a. a smaller Pelosi caucus).
If Biden wins, it is an anti-Trump win and not a Biden-policy win.
More importantly, it's an anti-Trumpism win.

McConnell has been able to hide his do-nothing obstructionism behind Trump under his rule that the Senate will not take up any legislation that has not been approved in advance by the White House. He's lost his fig leaf. The campaign against the do-nothing Republican Senate starts in January.
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Re: Biden Probable Winner according to FOX News

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Pennsylvania just does not seem complete without counting the votes of Pittsburg and Philadelphia.
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