Election Litigation Status

[Res Ipsa]

Hi Res,

What do you think are the odds Sydney Powell being shunted from the Trump legal team and splitting off on her own claim is a tactical move to delay and muddy the waters given there is no actual case to be made? I wonder how much of this is not intended to be a direct attempt at supporting qualified legal challenges? And if not, what the end game might be?

Hi Honor. It's really hard for me to tell. The various lawyers that have represented Trump since the election have been going a million miles an hour in several states since the polls opened. It's very hard to determine what is a deliberate strategy and what is tactical jumping around as different issues arise. It's not clear from the outside who is actually running the overall show, if anyone.

I'm not sure how Sydney Powell came to be part of the team in the first place. She claimed to have all kinds of evidence of fraud, so it's natural she drew Trump's interest. But I don't think she ever appeared for the Trump campaign in any lawsuit. I''m not even sure who her clients are.

The current law firm that now seems to be in charge was handed a mess. My own guess is that someone in that firm sat down and talked to Powell and asked to see her evidence. When they saw how kooky those claims are, they recommended that she be cut loose. I don't think there was a thought out plan. I just think that saner lawyers had a chance to sit down and look at what they were dealing with and said "holy crap -- she's a fruit loop."

I think the total effort right now has four tracks:

1. Create a myth of massive voter and election fraud. That's been the job of Trump, his kids, Rudy and until yesterday Sidney. Maybe Sidney will continue to perform that function while the Campaign maintains plausible deniability for her craziness.

2. Lobby and pressure individuals in the certification process to override the vote totals. That's going on this morning in Michigan with the state canvassing board.

3. Use state recounts and challenge procedures to try and stop or slow down the vote count and certification procedure.

4. Try to persuade federal courts to stop certification or flip the results.

The end game seems to be to drag the process out and throw the election in the lap of the Supreme Court, hoping it will do something like Bush v. Gore, even though the situations are not remotely similar.

Maybe more will become apparent as time passes.

[honorentheos]

That makes sense, thanks for going through the effort of a lengthy explanation, too. Her being cut loose for being a liability but also a useful idiot if she's on her own still casting shade on the legitimacy of the election seems logical. It still feels like there's another shoe waiting to drop so taking nothing for granted still feels like the only actual logical response, too. I think I have a form of cynical fatigue from it all that defaults now to, "Yeah, of course that happened."

[Res Ipsa]

That makes sense, thanks for going through the effort of a lengthy explanation, too. Her being cut loose for being a liability but also a useful idiot if she's on her own still casting shade on the legitimacy of the election seems logical. It still feels like there's another shoe waiting to drop so taking nothing for granted still feels like the only actual logical response, too. I think I have a form of cynical fatigue from it all that defaults now to, "Yeah, of course that happened."

You're welcome, and I understand the waiting for the next shoe to drop feeling. I don't think I'll feel confortable until Trump concedes or January 6, whichever comes first.

In the meaning, more rulings.

The PA Supreme Court held, in a ruling that affects all of the Board of Elections Challenges, that as long as voters signed the envelope of their absentee ballots and the date and time that the ballot was received was recorded, voter mistakes such as not filling out the date or writing their address on the envelope do not disqualify their ballots.

Meanwhile, the the federal Trump v. Boockvar case, the defendants filed a motion for clarification that basically asked WTF are the president's lawyers asking the court to actually do. Trump's lawyers then filed for permission to file an emergency motion to stay certification in PA until their appeal can be heard. The court has issued an accelerated briefing schedule, with Trump's brief due today and the defendants briefs due tomorrow. No argument has been set.

And defendants have filed a motion to dismiss Trump's election challenge in Nevada, which seeks to have the court declare Trump the winner. In that case, the Trump campaign moved to take more than ten depositions (not giving a total) on an accelerated schedule. Defendants opposed.

[Res Ipsa]

Update: The MI State Board of Canvassers has certified the election. The vote was 3 yea, 1 abstention.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

RI,

Can this Powell lady, now that she's not 'officially' part of Trump's team take the tactic of filing dozens of suits on her own to challenge the, I dunno, whatever the “F” she wants to challenge at this point, and by doing so delay the Electoral College from certifying the vote? I guess I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around what's going on with her. Just a few days ago Trump and Co. were twittering all over the place how she's amazing and a part of their legal team, and then suddenly they cut her loose. I'm trying figure out the legal or tactical angle here.

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

RI,

Can this Powell lady, now that she's not 'officially' part of Trump's team take the tactic of filing dozens of suits on her own to challenge the, I dunno, whatever the [vulgarity] she wants to challenge at this point, and by doing so delay the Electoral College from certifying the vote? I guess I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around what's going on with her. Just a few days ago Trump and Co. were twittering all over the place how she's amazing and a part of their legal team, and then suddenly they cut her loose. I'm trying figure out the legal or tactical angle here.

- Doc

Well, she has to have a client that has standing to bring the lawsuit. I know she represents Michael Flynn, but I don't know if she even represents any voters or candidates in the relevant states.

Just filing a lawsuit doesn't stop the process. She has to convince a judge to stop the process -- issue an injunction or temporary restraining order. Part of the burden to get one of those is to show that you are very likely to win. You have to show that the risk of harm of not issuing the injunction is greater than the harm from entering the injunction. Out of over 30 lawsuits filed so far, a couple of injunctions have been issued. But they were for things like making sure to keep certain ballots segregated from the others or to let observers stand closer to vote counters. I don't believe that a single injunction has been issued to stop voting or counting or certifying. So, unless a court issues an injunction, the State just goes on its merry way with the process -- it designates the winners slate of electors as Presidential Electors. They meet with the EC and cast votes. And the votes are tabulated on January 6. The one thing that pending litigation could screw up is the Safe Harbor Date, but that only protects against challenges by congress on January 6. With one party controlling each house, I don't see Congressional challenges being an issue.

And another update: the last of the suits filed by losing candidates in Nevada challenging the use of a machine to verify signatures has been dismissed. However, they could possibly be refiled as election challenges after the vote is certified.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Man, I really appreciate you keeping us up to speed on this process. I've actually used quite a bit of your material discussing it with others in real life and across the Internet.

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

Man, I really appreciate you keeping us up to speed on this process. I've actually used quite a bit of your material discussing it with others in real life and across the Internet.

- Doc

You're welcome. I'm glad you find it helpful. It's been interesting learning the nitty gritty of how our election system works. I'm glad you find my scribblings helpful.

[Philo Sofee]

Man, I really appreciate you keeping us up to speed on this process. I've actually used quite a bit of your material discussing it with others in real life and across the Internet.

- Doc

You're welcome. I'm glad you find it helpful. It's been interesting learning the nitty gritty of how our election system works. I'm glad you find my scribblings helpful.

I'm another one who is thankful Res....... you are amazing.

[subgenius]

Michigan state legislators agreed to hold a hearing into election irregularities (starts wednesday)while a federal appeals court expedited proceedings to consider Trump’s legal challenge in Pennsylvania. 3rd circuit