DiscussMormonism.com

honorentheos wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:23 pm

Thanks, Res.

You're welcome. I read the Trump campaign's brief in front of the 3rd Circuit. It's a little odd. It looks like they are trying claim fraud in order to create standing, but not really claiming fraud because there are special pleading requirements for fraud. This is clearly the case they want the Supreme Court to hear, and they want to make sure they can include their best arguments.

They also filed an emergency motion for the 3rd Circuit to (you could have guessed it by now) stop the certification process. Given how short the briefing schedule is (it will be complete today), I don't think the court will do that.

Meaning if they could convince the court fraud occurred, then Trump was harmed and thus has standing? Did they argue for standing in any other way? Through voters like the other arguments, for example?

honorentheos wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:37 pm

Meaning if they could convince the court fraud occurred, then Trump was harmed and thus has standing? Did they argue for standing in any other way? Through voters like the other arguments, for example?

I think that's the gist of it. There are individual plaintiffs, and they argue the Second Amended Complaint alleges that they also have standing because of vote dilution. I didn't notice an argument of any kind of derivative standing -- Trump deriving standing through voter standing -- but the only order being appealed from is the denial of the motion to amend. All they need to do is avoid a futility argument.

I think there's a good chance that the Court will overrule the denial of the motion to amend. A trial judge is supposed to liberally grant such motions this early in a lawsuit. It's messy, as they aren't asking the Court to reverse dismissal of the First Amended Complaint, so I anticipate a pretty big fight over issue preclusion. As someone once said, "we'll just have to see."

subgenius wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:34 am

Michigan state legislators agreed to hold a hearing into election irregularities (starts wednesday)while a federal appeals court expedited proceedings to consider Trump’s legal challenge in Pennsylvania. 3rd circuit

Detroit, MI had more irregularities during the 2016 election than during this recent election. Link
During this recent election, Trump would lose three more MI Counties and not win Macomb County and Ottawa County by as much as he did during the 2016 election. It is very easy to figure out why Trump lost Michigan during this recent election.

Tuesday updates:

The suit brought against the Trump campaign in DC has been assigned to the judge who presided over the Michael Flynn case.

It looks like I missed one of the several cases in Nevada in which losing candidates are seeking do over elections in Clark County. Yesterday there was a hearing in one of the cases, in front of a judge who had dismissed a similar case for lack of jurisdiction. The plaintiff's attorney (who represents several of these losing candidates) moved to disqualify the judge because she allegedly belongs to an organization that helps women run for office as Democrats. https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/n ... e-herself/

PA has now certified the election for Biden. Not sure how this will impact Trump v. Boockvar. It will at least moot the request for an emergency stay.

The GA recount has started. Unlike the earlier hand recount, this will be a machine recount. Much faster.

So, where are we? Starting with the way the AP called the election, Trump needed to flip states worth 37 votes to get to a tie. Here are the states he's been trying to flip, with their EVs and certification deadlines.

PA: 20 EV 11/23 CERTIFIED
GA: 16 EV 11/20 CERTIFIED
MI: 16 EV 11/23 CERTIFIED
AZ: 11 EV 11/28
WI: 10 EV 12/1
NV: 6 EV 11/24 CERTIFIED (the state Supreme Court accepted the totals; all that's left is the governor's signature)

Recounts are under way in GA and WI.

Here are the possible combinations that would work:

PA plus any other two states except NV+WI
PA, NV, WI and one more state
GA, MI, and one other state
GA or MI, AZ and WI

Phase one of the Trump legal strategy -- block certification in states with enough EVs -- is pretty much done. And it was a failure. The barrage of lawsuits didn't slow the process down at all. Now, I think, the task is harder -- at least psychologically. Now what the campaign has to do is convince a judge that the state's certification is incorrect. So, the requests change from "tell the state to do it right" to "change the result of the election." Not impossible, but it's not where the campaign wanted to be at this point.

Brack wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:52 pm

subgenius wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:34 am

Michigan state legislators agreed to hold a hearing into election irregularities (starts wednesday)while a federal appeals court expedited proceedings to consider Trump’s legal challenge in Pennsylvania. 3rd circuit

Detroit, MI had more irregularities during the 2016 election than during this recent election. Link
During this recent election, Trump would lose three more MI Counties and not win Macomb County and Ottawa County by as much as he did during the 2016 election. It is very easy to figure out why Trump lost Michigan during this recent election.

Cool story, maybe they should've consulted with you first so they could get the facts without a pesky hearing.

Some Republicans set a record in MN for the shortest election lawsuit ever. They filed a lawsuit in the state Supreme Court to block certification of results. The Court Dismissed because they’d failed to include the required documentation that the complaint had been served on defendants. The result in MN was certified a short time later.

A group of Republicans in Wisconsin has filed a similar complaint with the State Supreme Court. They have an expert that says Trump won by a lot. (If you throw out lots of Biden votes.)

honorentheos wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:19 pm

subgenius wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:34 am

Michigan state legislators agreed to hold a hearing into election irregularities (starts wednesday)while a federal appeals court expedited proceedings to consider Trump’s legal challenge in Pennsylvania. 3rd circuit

One of the characteristics of our broken democracy I find very distasteful is our rush to judge an action by an institution of democracy in a partisan light.
...
You seem to have posted this because you view both as favoring your guy. And others have reacted to it in kind

Gee, if only I had actually posted my view on the matter. But why bother, you brought plenty of presupposition to the table.

Defendants in Trump v Boockvar have filed their response brief. https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-cont ... ment-2.pdf The basic arguments are mootness and futility.

I heard the legal team simply did this until the judge had them removed by the bailiff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L7XJHd ... ture=share

- Doc