But in my defence I was still in grade school.
This is all by way of saying I have been a consumer of American political thought for half a century. I'm not claiming to be an historian or a pundit, just that I've been watching things for a long time. When Spiro Agnew protested that he was innocent and vowed to fight on, a friend thought he could. I said he would resign in 2 weeks. He resigned in 10 days. When George McGovern ran in '72, I knew he was going to get creamed. I knew Reagan would roll over Carter and Mondale. There were few shocks.
Having a political philosophy is one thing Seeing how the political world functions is another, and I think a good observer must divorce from their own political opinions when they put on their political prognostication cap. Don't think because you want it to happen that it will happen. I'm definitely not claiming to be Nate Silver, but still I had a general sense of trends that infrequently left me surprised at what was happening.
But in the last several election cycles, the shocks have come more and more frequently, and I think that I am not alone in that feeling, The old political formulas are breaking down. The Koch Brothers anointed one, Scott Walker, the first to drop out. Jeb Bush, scion of a political dynasty, with a huge campaign chest and the nomination presumably his to lose, sits at 5% in South Carolina, a state that no Bush has ever lost in a presidential primary. Three of the early front runners, Trump, Carson and Fiorina, have never served in office.
When Trump first led in the polls, I thought this was the beginning of the silly season, where the party gets all of the Herman Cains and Pat Robertsons out of its system before getting down to business. And every time Trump said something like Mexico is sending us its rapists, or he would get Mexico to pay for the wall, or he saw thousands of Muslims celebrating in New Jersey after 9/11, I thought to myself, this is it. This time he's gone beyond the pale, people will come to their senses. But the definition of 'beyond the pale' seems to be changing in America, at least for Donald Trump.
Take one example: John McCain is not a war hero. What do you think the reaction would be if Obama, Clinton or Sanders expressed that sentiment?
In my mind, it echoed Joseph McCarthy's string of casual slanders which finally came to an end when an Army Lawyer Robert Welch, who during nationally televised hearings finally exclaimed ""Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness." McCarthy tried to interrupt, Welch would not be deterred: "Let us not assassinate this lad further, senator. You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency?" And for all intents and purposes, McCarthy's career was over.
My political gut has told me Trump just had his Welch/McCarthy moment, not once, but several times. And clearly this is not the case. As Bob Dylan sang "But something is happening and you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones?" I used to feel so smugly hip when I listened to that song. Now I'm Mr. Jones, lost in a political landscape I don't know how to explain.
But I know I'm not alone in this. In Great Britain, they have a government website where any petition that gets 100,000 votes must be considered by Parliament. A petition to ban Trump from visiting Britain already received 370,000 signatures. After Trump suggested that there were parts of London the Police were afraid to visit: Conservative mayor Boris Johnson said "I would welcome the opportunity to show Mr Trump first hand some of the excellent work our police officers do every day in local neighbourhoods throughout our city. Crime has been falling steadily both in London and in New York - the only reason I wouldn't go to some parts of New York is the real risk of meeting Donald Trump."
The current Conservative Candidate for Mayor of London, Zac Goldsmith, said Trump was "an utterly repellent figure" and "one of the most malignant figures in politics". (But with a name like Goldsmith, he's probably an Muslim sympathizer, right?)
And those are the CONSERVATIVE candidates, ladies and germs, of our staunchest ally. I'm not sure you want to know what the liberals think. And this is where my political compass starts to lose true north. Angela Merkel, Time Magazine's Person of the Year, leads a Center-Right coalition in Germany, whose immigration policies reflect more of the Statue of Liberty than Mr. Trump's.
So the first thing we need to do realize that just because Donald Trump is running as a Republican does not equate with any traditional Western European definition of Conservatism. In Europe, Trump is perceived as a far right Nationalist like Marie Le Pen in France.
Twelve days after Trump’s announcement, the Daily Stormer, America’s most popular neo-Nazi news site, endorsed him for President: “Trump is willing to say what most Americans think: it’s time to deport these people.” The Daily Stormer urged white men to “vote for the first time in our lives for the one man who actually represents our interests.”
The Republican response has more than a whiff of cognitive dissonance. House Speaker Paul Ryan agrees that Trump's comments were 'not conservatism" and "not who we are as a party" and violate the Constitution. So what would Speaker Ryan do if the GOP were to somehow nominate a candidate who violates the tenants of Conservatism, the GOP and the Constitution?' Why support him, of course. Paul Ryan in the role of Paul von Hindenburg.
There's an old saying in the Middle East: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The US used that line of thinking in supporting Osama Bin Laden against the Soviet Union and Saddam Hussein against Iran. The GOP now seems to have the same wary relationship with its front runner.
Richard Spenser, who promotes "White Racial Consciousness", has a surprisingly nuanced view: “Trump, on a gut level, kind of senses that this is about demographics, ultimately. We’re moving into a new America. I don’t think Trump is a white nationalist,” but he did believe that Trump reflected “an unconscious vision that white people have—that their grandchildren might be a hated minority in their own country. I think that scares us. They probably aren’t able to articulate it. I think it’s there. I think that, to a great degree, explains the Trump phenomenon. I think he is the one person who can tap into it.”
In the art of the deal, Trump says "I play to people’s fantasies. I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration—and a very effective form of promotion.
Donald Trump wrote:We will have so much winning if I get elected, that you may get bored with winning.
The rise of the Limbic Americans.