By always lining up to go for it, I think it puts a lot more pressure on the defense. They don't know which way you're going to go. So when you actually go for it, they might be back on their heels a little bit more, from all the false flags you've been planting by lining up but not going it on 4th down.
The problem is that there are almost no negative repercussions for a coach that punts on 4th. But if they go for it and it doesn't go well, then there is a lot of blame. So regardless of what logic and math might tell you, from a career preservation standpoint, it's always best to punt.
After reading my post, I probably should have made it clear that I'm not talking about lining up to go for it on 4th and 10 (unless it's late in the game and your team is down). I;m talking about 4th and 4, or less.
You're quite right that coach gets the blame for going for it in those situations. As far as higher-risk strategies, it's easy for me to say 'go for it' when my career isn't on the line.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization." - Will Durant "We've kept more promises than we've even made" - Donald Trump "Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist." - Edwin Land
Well...maybe if they make half-court the 4 point line and Curry lifts weights in the off-season...
I never thought I'd see an NBA player shooting a chest shot become the MVP.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
By always lining up to go for it, I think it puts a lot more pressure on the defense. They don't know which way you're going to go. So when you actually go for it, they might be back on their heels a little bit more, from all the false flags you've been planting by lining up but not going it on 4th down.
The problem is that there are almost no negative repercussions for a coach that punts on 4th. But if they go for it and it doesn't go well, then there is a lot of blame. So regardless of what logic and math might tell you, from a career preservation standpoint, it's always best to punt.
Yep. Chip Kelly found that out the hard way. His philosophy was to always go for it. It works when you're winning games. You're a river boat gambler. When you start losing games, you're suddenly an idiot. Coaches who are safe in their jobs should do it more often. Belichick goes for it a lot more frequently than other coaches and it can be argued it cost him the AFC Championship this year. The Pats were only down by 8 and he went for it twice late in the game instead of kicking FGs. They failed to convert both times. They ended up scoring a TD later, but failed on the 2 point conversion. Making just one of those FGs might have won that game. But kicking a FG vs going for it is a different argument than punting vs going for it. If I ever become an NFL coach, my philosophy will be to never punt if I'm across the 50. But if I'm in comfortable FG range, always take the points.
"We have taken up arms in defense of our liberty, our property, our wives, and our children; we are determined to preserve them, or die." - Captain Moroni - 'Address to the Inhabitants of Canada' 1775