I don't think much of the polling data when it comes to one on one before it is set in stone. Then people really start to think about who they would vote for.
You'll never go far wrong in underestimating the intelligence of the average American. We all remember George with. Bush I hope. Cruz is smart. He is arrogant, lies better than Trump, and has a Messiah Complex a mile wide and a mile deep. But he is smart.