It's Over 4 Bernie? 1F No! Big day for Sanders

[_theldsthinker]

Sanders won Washington and Alaska by big margins. Sanders still has a descent chance of winning.

[_honorentheos]

Here's a list by state for the upcoming primaries/caucuses through June. Care to take a stab at what you think the proportion of delegates Sanders wins in each will be?

April 5 – Wisconsin primaries (86)

April 9 – Wyoming Democratic caucus (14)

April 19 – New York primaries (247)

April 26 – Connecticut primaries, (95)
Delaware primaries, (21)
Maryland primaries, (95)
Pennsylvania primaries, (189)
Rhode Island primaries (24)

May 3 – Indiana primaries (83)

May 7 – Guam Democratic caucuses (7)

May 10 – West Virginia primaries (29)

May 17 – Oregon primaries (61)
Kentucky Democratic primary (55)

June 4 – U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic caucuses (7)

June 5 – Puerto Rico Democratic caucuses (60)

June 7 – New Jersey primaries (126)
California primaries, (475)
Montana primaries (21)
New Mexico primaries (34)
North Dakota Democratic caucuses (18)
South Dakota primaries (20)

June 14 – District of Columbia Democratic primary. (20)

ETA: Added available delegates (non-super delegates)

[_moksha]

The Fortune 500 will be lining up to fill the Republican coffers if Sanders wins the nomination.

[_EAllusion]

Sanders won Washington and Alaska by big margins. Sanders still has a descent chance of winning.

Sanders has to win approximately 67% of all remaining delegates. He occasionally cracks that total in his strongest states and he has several states left that lean towards Clinton demographics.

For example, last week Clinton was polling 71 to 23% in New York. She might not win by 48 points (probably not), but Sanders can't simply respectably lose or tie there. There's 247 delegates at stake, which is away more than the total he won yesterday. It's way more than the few delegates he's going to pick up dominating Wyoming. He has to comfortably win New York to keep on track. This is a highly unlikely outcome. And there's several more states after that where he has to keep winning by a lot to keep on track to off-set places like Kentucky. This is crazy unlikely. This is why things look grim for his campaign. At this point, he's mostly just drawing coverage and organization for his pet causes.

So if by "decent" you mean "less than 5%" sure. Hey Northern Iowa somehow lost that game to Texas. Things happen. But this is you at this point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

[_Kevin Graham]

I don't understand the system, I'll admit. It would be so much easier if it were a simple matter of majority vote. The more I hear on this subject in the media however, it makes it seem like Sanders has a better chance than what people tend to think because they're assuming all of Hillary's "super delegates" will stick with her, whereas they could quite possibly flip if they're convinced Sanders has the better chance of beating Trump. Flipping Super Delegates will, in theory, dramatically change the electoral landscape to give Sanders a decent chance. And the only reason I could imagine them flipping, is the fact that Sanders fares better against Trump and Cruz in virtually all the polls.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Well, since March 22nd Sanders has gained something like 53 delegates on Clinton. He still trails by 298 delegates. If superdelegates are party officials and other high-profile Democrats who get to vote on nominees at the convention, my bet is the Clintons can guarantee political favors and thus secure the nomination. Sanders can assert that superdelegates should vote along state lines, but political ideology and political pragmatism are two separate things. Cronyism is a political reality, and Sanders is essential anti-that. If you were a superdelegate angling for a sweet promotion or assignation and your vote was more or less decisive who would you support? Human nature, my friends, wins the day.

- Doc

[_Kevin Graham]

Virtually all polls had Clinton with anywhere between a 15-30 point lead over Sanders in Michigan, and he ended up pulling away with a "by a nose" win.

Back in January the Salt Lake Tribune survey had Clinton with a 10 point lead over Sanders, and eventually Sanders won with nearly 80% of the vote, a near 60 point swing from just a few months ago.

In Washington's polling data Sander and Clinton were basically tied as recently as last week. And then Sanders won 73% of the vote, an apparently inexplicable 45 point swing.

When has anything like this happened before?

I'm cautiously optimistic at best, but it seems to me that as time goes by, more and more people are catching onto the "feel the bern" movement and turning recent polling data on their heads. This is why there is a lot of excitement going on in the Sanders camp. Things are happening pretty much as designed. It was his "path to victory" from the start, relying on a lot of hope and other factors that are beyond his control.

Of course, this all is probably coming a little too late, but it has been a fun ride and the final results will be interesting to say the least.

[_EAllusion]

Well, since March 22nd Sanders has gained something like 53 delegates on Clinton. He still trails by 298 delegates. If superdelegates are party officials and other high-profile Democrats who get to vote on nominees at the convention, my bet is the Clintons can guarantee political favors and thus secure the nomination. Sanders can assert that superdelegates should vote along state lines, but political ideology and political pragmatism are two separate things. Cronyism is a political reality, and Sanders is essential anti-that. If you were a superdelegate angling for a sweet promotion or assignation and your vote was more or less decisive who would you support? Human nature, my friends, wins the day.

- Doc

Pure as snow Sanders has been trying to persuade super-delegates to cross-over to him even if Clinton wins the "normal" pledged delegate count and popular vote total, which she is projected to do.

http://www.msnbc.com/andrea-mitchell-re ... 7479363719

Sanders has picked up delegates since March 22nd, and can continue to expect that for two more primary days, because he's got a run of states with favorable demographics and some caucuses on top of that.

[_Kevin Graham]

What he really needs is for California to turn out to be a surprise like Washington was.

[_EAllusion]

Virtually all polls had Clinton with anywhere between a 15-30 point lead over Sanders in Michigan, and he ended up pulling away with a "by a nose" win.

That was one of the most surprising political outcomes of the past 40 years, and it still wasn't nearly enough to actually change the dynamic of the race. That's why it is so very unlikely Sanders actually wins

If you want to bet anything on this, I'd be happy to take it up. I'll give you 2:1 odds.