Question for EA

[_Kevin Graham]

I remember some time ago you were talking about Congressional election cycles and how they tend to flip during non-Presidential election years.

Could you elaborate on that again? Specifically, what are the chances Congress flips "Left" in the coming years and if that is even likely to happen, how long could we expect that to last?

[_EAllusion]

I remember some time ago you were talking about Congressional election cycles and how they tend to flip during non-Presidential election years.

Could you elaborate on that again? Specifically, what are the chances Congress flips "Left" in the coming years and if that is even likely to happen, how long could we expect that to last?

There's a couple of phenomenon at work.

The first is that the party not in control of the presidency tends to do better in non-presidential years. So if a Democrat is in charge of the presidency in 2018, this favors Republicans. If a Republican is in charge, this favors Democrats. This is actually a major factor in explaining the two-party vote breakdown in those years. The effect is so large that it is very rare for the president's party not to lose seats in mid-term elections. 2002 is the most recent example, and that has to do with the national reaction to 9/11.

The second is that right now the demographics that vote Republican and Democrat are such that Democratic voters are less likely to turn-out in non-presidential years. This is because Democratic voters as a group are not quite as invested in voting as Republicans are.

The third is that general economic performance tends to swing people against the presidential incumbent party if it is bad and in its favor if it is good. Bigger swings in economic performance produce bigger swings in public opinion.

None of these factors are determinant of who wins the legislature. It's smart to think of the two-party vote as a scale. Each of these factors just move the scale a little in one direction. If Democrats were going to win the national vote by X%, they might still win, but instead by X-4%.

2010 was an absolute slaughter for Democrats because these 3 factors all aligned at the same time against them. The economy was still in shambles, it was a mid-term election with a Democrat in charge, and it was a non-presidential year election.

[Guest]

Thanks to both Kevin and EA for this informative thread. I think I understand better now how the Republicans gained as many seats in Congress as they did during the last two elections. It is unfortunate that Democrats, on average, are less invested in participating in the democratic process than Republicans. I can't help wondering how many elections would have had different outcomes if Democrats and Republicans were equally dedicated to exercising their right and duty to vote. It would seem to me that equal percentages of registered voters in all parties exercised their right to vote, it probably would matter less whether or not there was a high voter turnout. The will of the people would still be likely to be fairly represented.

[_Kevin Graham]

Thanks, this all rings a bell now.

[_The CCC]

Republicans want you to not vote, and Democrats follow along.