As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

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_DoubtingThomas
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As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

Kansas U.S. House 4th District Results

2016: Mike Pompeo (R) 61.0%, Daniel Giroux(D) 29.4%
2017: Ron Estes (R) 52.5%, James Thompson (D) 45.7%

With only 3 months of the Trump presidency and GOP control.

"Republicans avert disaster in Kansas but 2018 trouble looms"
"A win is a win -- and Republicans avoided the catastrophic outcome of losing in a congressional district where President Donald Trump won by 27 points last November. But in Estes' victory there are warning signs for Republicans preparing for the first midterm election of the Trump presidency in 2018."

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/11/politics/ ... n-results/

While Mr. Thompson fell short, his unexpected strength represents a warning shot toward Republicans. And it will galvanize Democrats’ candidate-recruitment efforts for next year’s campaign. The surging energy on the left was on display on Tuesday night when the early and absentee vote returns were tallied in the district’s largest county and revealed Mr. Thompson to have staked out a considerable lead. But Mr. Estes overcame that deficit thanks to his strength in the more rural parts of the district and among Election Day voters. Until last week, few in either national party were paying attention to this race. A special election in an Atlanta-area House district that was almost evenly divided in last year’s presidential campaign was the contest receiving millions of dollars and extensive news coverage. The first indications about the country’s political landscape would be gleaned there, it was thought, not in the Wichita-based seat. But then the House Republican campaign arm released a venomous ad accusing Mr. Thompson of favoring abortion rights for gender selection. Soon after, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas scheduled an election-eve rally for Mr. Estes on Monday. And Mr. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence recorded automated get-out-the-vote calls. A “super PAC” aligned with the House speaker, Paul D. Ryan, also intervened, paying for live-turnout calls to likely Republican voters. All told, national Republicans spent about $150,000 on the race. “Mr. Estes did not beat us,” Mr. Thompson told supporters after the race was called. “It took a president of the United States, the vice president, the speaker of the House, a senator coming into our state and a bunch of lies to drum up a vote.” He used his remarks to announce he would seek the seat again next year.
Last edited by Guest on Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
_subgenius
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _subgenius »

DoubtingThomas wrote:Kansas U.S. House 4th District Results

2016: Mike Pompeo (R) 61.0%, Daniel Giroux(D) 29.4%
2017: Ron Estes (R) 52.5%, James Thompson (D) 45.7%

With only 3 months of the Trump presidency and GOP control.

...(snip)...

...and RNC is still winning elections :lol:
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_The CCC
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _The CCC »

A deep Red district in a deep Red state pulls off a win of 52-45%. It should have been a blowout.
_subgenius
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _subgenius »

The CCC wrote:A deep Red district in a deep Red state pulls off a win of 52-45%. It should have been a blowout.

That's what people thought in November 2016...funny thing about comparing your preconceived notions with reality, tends to be disappointing when you are a liberal. A Republican implosion is far off, and it is certainly a lot farther than the DNC currently has to travel.
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_The CCC
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _The CCC »

I never predicted a loss for Drumpf. I agreed with Michael Moore that Drumpf would win.
SEE http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Plus I never said the Republican Party was about to implode. I fully expected it to win in a deep Red district in a deep Red State like Kansas. What I didn't expect was how close in a Special Election it turned out to be this soon after a General Election where the Republican won while losing the popular vote.
_DoubtingThomas
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

The CCC wrote:I never predicted a loss for Drumpf. I agreed with Michael Moore that Drumpf would win.

SEE http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Plus I never said the Republican Party was about to implode. I fully expected it to win in a deep Red district in a deep Red State like Kansas. What I didn't expect was how close in a Special Election it turned out to be this soon after a General Election where the Republican won while losing the popular vote.

"Republicans avert disaster in Kansas but 2018 trouble looms"

"A win is a win -- and Republicans avoided the catastrophic outcome of losing in a congressional district where President Donald Trump won by 27 points last November. But in Estes' victory there are warning signs for Republicans preparing for the first midterm election of the Trump presidency in 2018."

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/11/politics/ ... n-results/

I think there is a good chance the GOP goes back to 2009.
_MeDotOrg
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _MeDotOrg »

I would define winning an election as a pretty slow death.

I understand your talking about the trending. If the resistance to Trump's policies stays as strong as it is currently, I think the Republicans are in jeopardy for some really big losses in the 2018 midterms.

Republicans dominate state legislatures and Governor's offices. They have effectively gerrymandered so that it is really difficult to have a fair race in many districts. It will take a massive effort to dislodge Republicans at the state level.

Think of this: The Republicans nominated the least qualified, most disliked candidate in modern history, and they still won. If they are committing suicide, a lot of Americans seem happy to walk down that path with them.
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_DoubtingThomas
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

subgenius wrote:...and RNC is still winning elections :lol:

What now?
_subgenius
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _subgenius »

DoubtingThomas wrote:
subgenius wrote:...and RNC is still winning elections :lol:

What now?

Adapt and overcome as they have successfully done for years. Losing an election is hardly a death sentence. Especially when the loss was not due to policy but rather due to a vigorous style over substance campaign.
Nevertheless, it ain't over, my friend.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
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_Chap
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Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _Chap »

subgenius wrote:the loss was not due to policy but rather due to a vigorous style over substance campaign.


Yup, that adequately describes the losing campaign by Moore, backed of course by Bannon and Trump - both of whom are significantly damaged by this failure.

Of course, there was also the small point of Moore being very likely a teen-phile skirt-lifter, aggravated by his continual invocations of Jesus, God, and so on. I suspect that the world has now changed enough so that even in Alabama that combination is enough to induce nausea in a large slice of voters.

On that basis, I wonder how the continuing campaign by Trump's 'gropies' (that is, ladies who think about him a lot, but not in a friendly/admiring way, because he groped/grabbed them or similar) will affect him as we move towards the mid-terms? How many Republican candidates will think it is a good idea to have his active support?

subgenius wrote:it ain't over, my friend.


I do like to hear subgenius reduced to saying that. I think he is right, of course. But perhaps not in the way he meant.
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