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It appears that Quist was probably too far behind in early voting for any sort of 11th hour scandal (assaulting a reporter) to change the total outcome. I think I read where 538 was suggesting the assault could result in ~3-5%, based on historical data, but it seems Quist was probably 10 points behind to start.

I think it is still significant that we have seen three special elections be much tighter than the previous presidential election would suggest they would be. This is a pretty good sign for Dems going into midterms(at least for regaining the house), where the opposition party typically fairs well.

Not sure if anyone is aware of it but I used this site to follow this special election. I found their graphics and information quite interesting and informative.

To subs (not that he responds to substance anyways): I don't think many people realistically thought Quist was going to win. In fact it was Republican insiders who raised a lot of the alarm bells on this election. Instead, the Democrats view the narrow victories for Republicans in races that should be landed slides as a barometer for mid-term results.

subgenius wrote:and here comes the butt-hurt parade for another lap

[Gianforte assaults person in front of eyewitnesses and audio recording and has his spox lie about it.]

Sub:What, you don't know what a real man looks like you butthurt libbies?

[Black man wears hoodie]

Sub: Help! Help! Someone shoot this thug!

Some Schmo wrote:Gianforte ran as a Drumpf wannabee. He almost did it:

- Loses his crap over a question
- Provides BS explanation that clearly defies the evidence everyone else can see

Pretty good so far, except:

- Apologizes for his mistake

Ooooo... so close.

Lol.

My first reaction to this story was that most Republicans would consider an anti-free-press bully Republican to be better than any Democrat, and that the basic reaction among Trumpphiles to this attack would be along the lines of, "finally! It's about time somebody punched a member of the failing fake news!" I hoped the voters would prove me wrong, but they didn't.

Looking at the total numbers, I don't think the attack changed very many votes and Gianforte would have won even without the early voting phenomenon.

I hope this goes to trial, that he is convicted, and that the maximum sentence be handed down. Elected officials need to be held to a higher standard than the rest of us. A politician punching a reporter is like a football player punching a referee. As a society, we should have zero tolerance of such things.

EAllusion wrote:

subgenius wrote:and here comes the butt-hurt parade for another lap

[Gianforte assaults person in front of eyewitnesses and audio recording and has his spox lie about it.]

Sub:What, you don't know what a real man looks like you butthurt libbies?

[Black man wears hoodie]

Sub: Help! Help! Someone shoot this thug!

+1,000

subgenius wrote:what a cry-baby...once again we see that the Dems refuse to accept the fact that they lost the race, lost due to a lack of policy, lack of leadership, lack of strategy, and just lack of everything in a modern America.

Democrats way over-performed the district lean, so this analysis is very dumb, but other than that, good comment.

It isn't hard to imagine both being unsurprised by a result and disappointed in partisanship mattering more than violence against the free press in voter behavior, but no one ever accused you of nuance.

Analytics wrote:Looking at the total numbers, I don't think the attack changed very many votes and Gianforte would have won even without the early voting phenomenon.

I hope this goes to trial, that he is convicted, and that the maximum sentence be handed down. Elected officials need to be held to a higher standard than the rest of us. A politician punching a reporter is like a football player punching a referee. As a society, we should have zero tolerance of such things.

I think you are probably right that it didn't change much. If you look at the Decision Desk HQ link I provided you can see that Gianforte out preformed his failed gubernatorial run in all counties but one (refer to the chart in the bottom left, #2). It appears his strategy of mainly laying low and avoiding any controversy (minus the beating up of a reporter, of course) helped him win the day.




To your second point, I could not agree more. Unfortunately I think we both know that he will pay his $500 fine and carry on his merry way.

edit: apparently I forgot left from right

Xenophon wrote:To your second point, I could not agree more. Unfortunately I think we both know that he will pay his $500 fine and carry on his merry way.

Agreed, but I'm not sure how merry it will be. Despite his apology, he and the rest of the House GOP will have to answer questions for this guy till the 2018 midterms. He's in for a lot of headaches from reporters. If he thought Jacobs was aggressive, how's he going to feel when he's surrounded and hounded in Washington?

Well he is now a bonafide criminal with a history of violence. Remember this the next time Republicans tell you how concerned they are about keeping out Mexicans because they're criminals.

subgenius wrote:and here comes the butt-hurt parade for another lap

So you want a thug. Truly deplorable.

Will the Montana judicial system forgive Gianforte's assault charges now that he is elected? The Montana sheriff in the case already determined that knocking the reporter down and slugging him a few times (confirmed by a traitorous Fox News reporter) constituted misdemeanor rather than felony assault.