A Presidential Historian Predicts Trump Won't Last His Term

[_AmyJo]

Presidential historian Mike Purdy's premise is that Trump will not last four years.

Listing a litany of reasons why Trump has fumbled his way through the first four months into his presidency, Purdy poses the options for Trump departing early:

"....There are five Oval Office exit paths: impeachment, use of the 25th Amendment, death by natural causes, assassination and resignation.

Many Democrats and some Republicans in Congress have begun to talk about impeachment to remove the president from office. Of course, while there would have to be documented impeachable offenses – what the Constitution describes as “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors” – ultimately impeachment is a politically driven process.

Only two presidents have been impeached and neither were convicted....

If Trump’s Republican support in Congress erodes due to their fears that Trump will be the cause of a Democratic landslide in the 2018 mid-term elections, Republicans will gladly sacrifice a president that many have never fully embraced. A President Pence would provide far greater stability, less drama, and an ability to accomplish some of the GOP’s policy goals.

A second method by which Trump might not complete his full term is implementing the untested process outlined in the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. Under this unlikely scenario, the vice-president and majority of the cabinet could essentially stage a palace coup by declaring that the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” The president could report to Congress that he is able to function as president. If the vice president and cabinet notified Congress of their disagreement with the president’s assessment of his abilities, Congress would make the final decision whether the president should remain in office or not. As it might play out for Trump, it looks a lot like impeachment with Congress making the decision.

The weight and burdens of the presidency prematurely ages occupant of the Oval Office, and Trump could die in office. Four presidents have died of natural causes while in office: William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Warren Harding and Franklin Roosevelt – all younger than Trump who is the oldest man ever to assume the office for the first time.

Depending on what medical records are considered, the president is either overweight or obese. Weighing in at 236 pounds, he is the third heaviest president, behind William Howard Taft and Grover Cleveland.

Trump is not a believer in exercise and his diet is considered less than healthy, by many experts.

In the vicious and violent world of the 21st century, death by assassination is always a threat to the president. Four presidents have been assassinated: Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy. There have been countless assassination attempts against presidents including Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt (as ex-president campaigning for another term), Franklin Roosevelt (as president-elect), Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan. And the Secret Service has thwarted countless assassination plots over the years.

Finally, Trump might resign the presidency before his term is up. He might resign if he realized he faced almost certain impeachment, if his health were affected by the office, or if he just became tired of the duties. He recently noted his surprise that the presidency is a lot harder than he expected.

Because winning is everything for Trump, and because he is a master marketer, he would put a positive spin on his resignation. He would declare that he had made America great again. He would list all his accomplishments, noting that no president had ever done so much in such a short period of time. He would say that he was not a politician and was returning to the people after having drained the swamp of Washington, DC. He would say that he had stood up for the forgotten men and women of our country. Whether any of such statements were actually true or not, the president would say they were, and it would be the reality that he would construct to justify his resignation.

Trump would create a face-saving narrative to allow him to resign and go back to the life he enjoyed so much as a real-estate developer and celebrity. He may, in fact, now be contemplating the framework of such a resignation narrative.

The word “unprecedented” characterized Trump’s campaign and his unlikely election as president. Similarly, “unprecedented” describes the serious challenges and threats to Trump’s presidency, especially after just four months in office. At this point in time, it is highly probable that Trump will join the ranks of the nine previous presidents who did not complete their term – although he could become the first president convicted of impeachment and removed from office."

Mike Purdy is a presidential historian and the founder of PresidentialHistory.com. He is a frequent and popular speaker and is often quoted by the media about presidential history and politics, including CNN, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Huffington Post, BBC and others.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/p ... w-he-might

[_subgenius]

Mike Purdy is an amateur historian, meaning that his full-time day job is being a contract/procurement manger.
http://www.mpurdy.com/MikePurdyResume.pdf

But hey, its good to see that you are trying to find "hope", but that campaign slogan has already been used.

[_AmyJo]

Mike Purdy is an amateur historian, meaning that his full-time day job is being a contract/procurement manger.
http://www.mpurdy.com/MikePurdyResume.pdf

But hey, its good to see that you are trying to find "hope", but that campaign slogan has already been used.

Well it's ironic then that Trump is an amateur president, and a full time con artist/provocateur.

What a coincidence.

Purdy appears to have hit the bull's eye.

How bout we wager he's right and you're wrong? What's it worth to you?

Your marbles v. his brains?

[_subgenius]

How bout we wager he's right and you're wrong? What's it worth to you?

im in.. if Trump stays in office for the full 4 year term then what?

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

It's just a covfefe.

- Doc

[_The CCC]

I hope we all live long enough to see Drumpf leave office.

[_Some Schmo]

It's just a covfefe.

- Doc

covfefe n.
1. The act of covering a woman's groin with your hand.
2. Colloquial: Pussy grabbing.
3. The attempt to close Pandora's Box.

Example: Despite numerous attempts of covfefe, the candidate still managed to convince his voters it was only "locker room talk."

[_AmyJo]

I hope we all live long enough to see Drumpf leave office.

And a country left for us to live in when he's out.

I'm not a worry wart. I am a pragmatist. He's a disaster.

[_subgenius]

How bout we wager he's right and you're wrong? What's it worth to you?

im in.. if Trump stays in office for the full 4 year term then what?

BUMP for the wager

[_Maksutov]

Mike Purdy is an amateur historian, meaning that his full-time day job is being a contract/procurement manger.
http://www.mpurdy.com/MikePurdyResume.pdf

But hey, its good to see that you are trying to find "hope", but that campaign slogan has already been used.

Well it's ironic then that Trump is an amateur president, and a full time con artist/provocateur.

What a coincidence.