YEA! I think Jones is going to win

[_DoubtingThomas]

Just wanted to be the first one to say it here

Thank You Montgomery

[_EAllusion]

The odds of a Democrat Senate come 2019 certainly just shot up. Picking off Alabama wasn't exactly the mostly likely path to that.

[_Xenophon]

First Strange and now Moore, Trump sure knows how to pick em.

Voter turnout and write-ins looks to be the story here. Democrats came out in droves and Republicans didn't look like they could bother. That nearly 2% write in didn't hurt either.

[Guest]

[_EAllusion]

So Jones is totally going to lose in 2020 under any normal circumstances. He's the Democrat equivalent of Scott Brown. That said, I'm willing to bet a lot of money that if there is a recession around the time of that election Republicans are going to be decimated. Jones could probably keep his seat in that circumstance. 9 years of a Democrat Senator from Alabama was simply unthinkable a few months ago. Now it seems like an outside possibility. 3 years is already kinda jarring.

[_DoubtingThomas]

Jones could probably keep is seat in that circumstance. .

To end the Republican party as we know it all the Democrats have to do is amnesty for all illegal immigrants, and it's over for Republicans.

[_Xenophon]

To your 2018 thoughts, EA. PredictIt took the chances of Democrats taking the senate up to 48% from 32. You in for another coin flip?

[_Brackite]

Alabama is a deep red state. Both Romney and Trump got over 60% of the vote in that state. The GOP should not be losing a Senate seat in Alabama. But I am glad that Jones is going to win this Senate seat.

[_MeDotOrg]

I called it wrong. I thought Moore would win in a squeaker, and a squeaker it was.

What does it all mean?

1. The President has one less vote for a tax plan. Susan Collins became a lot more important tonight.

2. Even in the 5th reddest state in the Union, a Republican can have too much baggage. This state went 62-34 Trump/Clinton. Trump's coattails did not help Moore. This has to be a concern for a lot of Republicans in purplish districts in the 2018 midterms.

3. Even in a perfect storm with a good candidate running against Roy Moore, it took a herculean effort by the Democrats. We're not seeing the demise of the Republican Party in Alabama.

4. Not all Republicans take their cue from Trump, Moore or Bannon.

If there is a possible downside for Democrats, they won't have Roy Moore to run against in the 2018 midterms.

[_EAllusion]

To your 2018 thoughts, EA. PredictIt took the chances of Democrats taking the senate up to 48% from 32. You in for another coin flip?

Speaking of what I won't bet on, what I would bet on is Democrats taking Arizona and Nevada. More provocatively, I think they have a coin-flippy shot at 1 of either Texas or Tennessee and a puncher's chance at both.

On the other hand, I have a hard time seeing McCasskill win and there's a bunch of other red states Democrats are defending that I imagine there's a good shot of them losing one or two of.

Those odds seems pretty much right on the money from where I sit. Generally you want to bet against a sharp turn in a prediction market during heavy saturation of cable news punditry, because that produces stupid collective thinking, but this one looks about right where it should be.