DiscussMormonism.com

Posted: **Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:40 am**

In 2016, Trump won Bullitt County, Kentucky by 49 points over Clinton. Today they had a special election:

Mother Jones wrote:Voters in Bullitt County, a Kentucky district south of Louisville that went heavily for Trump in 2016, just elected a Democrat to fill a House seat left vacant by a legislator who committed suicide amid allegations of sexual assault.

On Tuesday night, Linda Belcher beat Republican Rebecca Johnson by an almost 37-point margin—an 86-point swing from Trump’s victory. The House seat that represents the state’s 49th District has been vacant since December, when Republican Rep. Dan Johnson committed suicide after the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting published a story in which Johnson was accused of molesting a 17-year-old girl at the church where he served as pastor. (Johnson denied the allegations and initially refused to step down, even without the support of Republican leadership in Kentucky.)

So Trump wins by 49 points in 2016, Linda Belcher wins by 37 points in 2018. An 86 point swing. Obviously there are other factors that could have exacerbated the swing, but these are not happy tea leaves for the GOP.

Posted: **Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:05 am**

The last few elections have been encouraging. I just wonder how much will carry over to the midterms this November. People have short memories.

Of course, Drumpf rarely fails to do something dumb, so it's hard to imagine he'll suddenly gain favor with the majority of swing voters. I also wonder how many people might be starting to realize just how hypocritical the GOP has been, and how full of crap Fox News has been, given the Mueller indictments.

Who knows? I've kind of given up trying to figure out the American electorate. Obviously, many people have figured out a way to reconcile supporting obvious criminals.

Posted: **Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:21 am**

I would certainly agree that the political climate is a volatile as it has been since I've been following politics, and there are a million other political, military, economic or social events that could jerk the outcome in November in an unforeseen direction. Nevertheless, as a trend line, an 86 point swing over a period of less than 15 months --- that's an extraordinary swing.

Posted: **Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:29 am**

MeDotOrg wrote:I would certainly agree that the political climate is a volatile as it has been since I've been following politics, and there are a million other political, military, economic or social events that could jerk the outcome in November in an unforeseen direction. Nevertheless, as a trend line, an 86 point swing over a period of less than 15 months --- that's an extraordinary swing.

Yep, absolutely. Something significant is happening in this country, without a doubt.

A Democrat won a senate seat in Alabama. The times, they are a changin'.

Posted: **Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:20 pm**

That's a unique election. It's hard to read anything from it in isolation. No doubt the specials in general show a large swing in Democrats direction against their generic lean. Part of that is an enthusiasm gap in low-turnout elections that may not be as pronounced in November.

I feel like the common wisdom as swung from not appreciating how well-positioned Democrats are this election to overestimating the Democrat's chances. The median outcome - a 5-6 point Democrat victory in the House - hasn't changed much. As things stand, Democrats have a slightly better than even odds of taking the house and a slightly worse than even odds of taking the Senate. The only outcome that would be genuinely surprising right now is a strong Republican victory.

DiscussMormonism.com

Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.

Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.

Re: Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.

Re: Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.

Re: Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.

Re: Oh we got trouble, right here in the heartland.