DiscussMormonism.com

What is going to happen to the Republican party when the Democrats make Texas and Arizona blue?

It hasn't been called by any major outfit yet as best I can see. Nate Cohn just a few minutes ago was estimating a race as tight as less than 10 votes. Where are you getting the declaration of victory from?

Didn't you learn anything from prematurely declaring Ossoff victorious?

This race is wild to me in that it's almost entirely symbolic and yet a fortune was spent on it - mostly on the Republican end. The district is being radically changed in a few months. There's no incumbency advantage to having it now. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins will change what happens in Congress approximately not at all. In terms of the balance of power, it's meaningless.

I can only surmise that Republicans were pouring a small fortune into it in order to avoid spooking other officeholders into retiring.

Nate Silver, just a second ago in response to the argument that Rick Saccone was a bad candidate:

There are exceptions (e.g. Roy Moore) but most of the time the "bad candidate" label is applied as a somewhat lazy post-facto rationalization for an electoral outcome that people don't like.

Man, ain't that the truth.

EAllusion wrote:It hasn't been called by any major outfit yet as best I can see. Nate Cohn just a few minutes ago was estimating a race as tight as less than 10 votes. Where are you getting the declaration of victory from?

Didn't you learn anything from prematurely declaring Ossoff victorious?

No, the Republicans are going to win. Ossoff is winning Westmoreland
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/penns ... l-election

EAllusion wrote:This race is wild to me in that it's almost entirely symbolic and yet a fortune was spent on it - mostly on the Republican end. The district is being radically changed in a few months. There's no incumbency advantage to having it now. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins will change what happens in Congress approximately not at all. In terms of the balance of power, it's meaningless.

I can only surmise that Republicans were pouring a small fortune into it in order to avoid spooking other officeholders into retiring.

CNN reported that Trump has been following the outcome closely according to a source, and apparently is happy it wasn't a blow out.

The visuals the race provides is what it's all about despite there being almost no practical reason to believe the race matters.

That said, having less than 100 votes separating the two candidates with 99% reporting in (and the libertarian candidate having syphoned off over 1000 votes that probably would have decided the election) does make for political entertainment if of the summer popcorn-flick variety.

DoubtingThomas wrote:

EAllusion wrote:It hasn't been called by any major outfit yet as best I can see. Nate Cohn just a few minutes ago was estimating a race as tight as less than 10 votes. Where are you getting the declaration of victory from?

Didn't you learn anything from prematurely declaring Ossoff victorious?

No, the Republicans are going to win. Ossoff is winning Westmoreland
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/penns ... l-election

?

Lamb is up 95 votes with a few votes yet to report from random precincts in a normally Republican dense area and absentee votes that expert forecaster Twitter is giving a *shrugs shoulders* to. We're in "no idea what's going on" territory. I don't know what PA's recount laws are, but I'd put my money on recount.

honorentheos wrote:CNN reported that Trump has been following the outcome closely according to a source, and apparently is happy it wasn't a blow out.

Heh. Trump does watch ungodly amounts of Fox News and the right-wing media has been trying to massage expectations by portraying the Republican like he was a plucky underdog even though this is a normal Republican landslide district and he owns a massive spending advantage. Whether Trump is in on that game or a dupe is too hard to tell, because Trump.

Regardless of final outcome, this is consistent with Democrats way outperforming national baseline at the moment.

EAllusion wrote:
Didn't you learn anything from prematurely declaring Ossoff victorious?

Nope! I was right! The Democrats will win! Lamb now leads by 800 votes! There are not enough votes left in Westmoreland to make a difference. I would be willing to bet a lot of money now.

5,000 bucks than Lamb is going to win? 500? Anyone?