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Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida after Parkland

Yeah, I'd be totally stunned if Trump wins Florida in 2020. I mean, after Parkland and screwing over Puerto Rico the way he did... tens of thousands flocked to Florida to stay with family. And they'll like be voting too.

The kicker may be a split Democrat ticket...if there is a a Biden type running, and a far far left advocate like the one from NY, the GOP may easily win, similar to Bush the elder and Perot.

Also if the economy is still growing, it will be tough, people vote by their pocket book when they get into the booth.

Without arguing, who will be the blue candidate?

Clinton won Miami-Dade and Orange Counties by larger margins than Obama, but she still lost Florida to Trump. Florida outside of those two counties has gotten more red (Republican) over the last several years. Democratic Senator Nelson of Florida is up for reelection this year, and I do want him to win his reelection bid, but he is still trailing a bit to GOP Governor Rick Scott in the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6246.html

How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?

It does depend a bit on the nominee, but I think Trump is likely to be stronger in Florida than in PA, WI, and MI. If he's losing Florida, he's probably lost those first. Florida has been tilting a little bit more red despite other trends going on because of an increasing demographic divide based on age and Florida having a huge retirement population. Bill Nelson is in serious trouble right now in a huge Democratic wave environment.

Regarding the point about youth registration, this is part of a broader trend that's been showing up in reporting that suggests 1) young people registration is way up and 2) intent to vote measures of young people are flat, which means extremely low like usual. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in reality.

Maksutov wrote:How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?

The crazy thing is the 2016 polls were quite accurate. Clinton won the popular vote margin roughly within a margin of error against poll of polls measures that was lower than average. The miss was little less than 2%. If this measure is off by 2, 6, 10 or even 15% in either direction, it's still a significant finding.

Because Clinton was treated as an inevitable winner in the media, which was realistic pre-Comey letter, I think there's this totally inaccurate sense that there was a huge polling miss. There wasn't. The polls were off in the favor of Trump slightly less than they were off in the favor of Obama in 2012. The difference, of course, is that the polls predicted Obama would win by +2 and he won by +4, and people don't pay as much attention when the outcome isn't reversed.

EAllusion wrote:It does depend a bit on the nominee, but I think Trump is likely to be stronger in Florida than in PA, WI, and MI. If he's losing Florida, he's probably lost those first. Florida has been tilting a little bit more red despite other trends going on because of an increasing demographic divide based on age and Florida having a huge retirement population. Bill Nelson is in serious trouble right now in a huge Democratic wave environment.

Regarding the point about youth registration, this is part of a broader trend that's been showing up in reporting that suggests 1) young people registration is way up and 2) intent to vote measures of young people are flat, which means extremely low like usual. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in reality.

I attended a rally led by some of the Parkland kids in Salt Lake City recently. It made news because of unpleasantries between them and some aggressive gun activists. The young people on the panel were surprisingly articulate and modest in the changes they were proposing. While I don't think reinstating the assault weapons ban will be as successful as they seem to think, for me the issue is to support their First Amendment rights in the face of hostile and often heavily armed critics who seem to care about nothing beyond Second Amendment.

The other thing to remember is that since the voting rights act was gutted by the Supreme Court, voter roll purges designed to target likely Democrat voters are way up. That could more than off-set any uptick in youth registration. You can't look at these factors in isolation.

EAllusion wrote:

Maksutov wrote:How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?

The crazy thing is the 2016 polls were quite accurate. Clinton won the popular vote margin roughly within a margin of error against poll of polls measures that was lower than average. The miss was little less than 2%. If this measure is off by 2, 6, 10 or even 15% in either direction, it's still a significant finding.

Because Clinton was treated as an inevitable winner in the media, which was realistic pre-Comey letter, I think there's this totally inaccurate sense that there was a huge polling miss. There wasn't. The polls were off in the favor of Trump slightly less than they were off in the favor of Obama in 2012. The difference, of course, is that the polls predicted Obama would win by +2 and he won by +4, and people don't pay as much attention when the outcome isn't reversed.

I understand this is accurate and yet a healthy skepticism is warranted somewhere. Perhaps it's not the data, but the people we're listening to interpret it.

purging voter rolls and gerrymandering and you call your country a democracy?