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Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:28 am
by _MeDotOrg
As states re-open well before the 2 week downturn in cases that should precede a reopening, the limited data that we are able to collect will be critical. If you are a Governor who has opened your state early, will you be tempted to massage the data if things are not working well?

This is one of my greatest concerns about early reopening: If a Governor has made a mistake that will result in a Second Wave, will he listen to numbers that make him happy, or numbers that reflect reality? Here's something that's happening in Florida that worries me:
The Hill wrote:
Florida officials have reportedly withheld medical examiners’ data on coronavirus deaths in the state for over a week, with the policy changing shortly after the Tampa Bay Times reported that the medical examiners were counting 10 percent more deaths than the state.

Stephen Nelson, the chairman of the state Medical Examiners Commission, told the Tampa Bay Times that the state health department intervened and told him it planned to remove causes of death and case descriptions from mortality data.

Nelson told the newspaper the data is meaningless without that information, and the entirety of the list should be considered public information.

“This is no different than any other public record we deal with,” he said. “It’s paid for by taxpayer dollars and the taxpayers have a right to know.”

Alberto Moscoso, a spokesman for the state health department, told the Times that the department “participated in conference calls” with the state Department of Law Enforcement, which provides administrative support to the Medical Examiners Commission, saying the discussions pertained to “privacy concerns for the individuals that passed away related to COVID-19.”

He said the state did not provide a formal legal opinion during the calls.

In March, the agency attempted to persuade the Miami-Dade County medical examiner’s office to restrict access to death records, according to the Times, citing correspondence between the two agencies. The county ultimately released the records, including the names of the dead.

Hillsborough County, meanwhile, refused to release records for weeks before eventually releasing a list on Tuesday of those identified as dying from the virus after questioning from the newspaper. The Palm Beach County Medical Examiner, which previously provided a spreadsheet of coronavirus-related deaths, was directed by county attorneys last week to stop releasing it, according to the Times.
During the the Great War and the Pandemic of 1918, the U.S. government suppressed information about the Pandemic because of the war, and sent troops across the Atlantic on crowded transports where sometimes 10-15% died from the Pandemic before they set foot on French soil.

Then, as now, people will want to fudge the numbers.

Re: Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:31 am
by _Gadianton
It will be a sure reality that Rush Limbaugh educated governors will lie through their teeth about what's happening. Honestly, I hope they end up being right, they re-open, and everything is okay. I'm as much at risk by a down economy as anyone else. I'll take being wrong and keep my job any day.

The thing is with this virus, you can only lie about it so much. It spreads so fast that if it gets out of hand, we'll know about it.

Re: Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:55 am
by _Jersey Girl
It's too soon. Our governor says we'll pull back if he sees a rise in new cases when he shouldn't have moved to reopen to start with. Even Trump has pushed going against the policy of his own freaking task force.

I see exactly NO state that has met the 14-day downtrend including my own. I suppose they can fudge the numbers somehow but so far as I know the hospitals have to comply with reporting. All they had to do was wait...wait just a little longer.

But then they have to contend with yahoos protesting in the street about hair cuts. They don't have scissors?

WTF

Maybe now they'll get their haircut when the roll into the funeral home in the horizontal position. Not that I wish it on anyone, you understand, but for pete sakes--my state was only on stay at home orders for 6 freaking weeks. 6 weeks!

Re: Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:52 pm
by _EAllusion
It's gonna depend on how many people voluntarily do what is necessary rather than through government mandate.

Re: Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:30 pm
by _Icarus
There appears to be some shadiness going on in Georgia's reporting as well:

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regiona ... qGgXSZ0u1U

Re: Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:43 pm
by _EAllusion
One plausible scenario is that restrictions are lifted, a very large chunk of the population decides that now is not the best time to be going to public places, case/fatality rates don't spike, people advocating lifting restrictions crow about how it was all alarmist nonsense, then people modify their behavior in response to that, and we get another wave of mass death.

The people who want to grind workers into dust so they can make their next yacht payment are counting on a fine line being walked between productivity and distance that is a heck of a gamble.