100 Days Out

[_MeDotOrg]

Today I spent a little time at 270 to win. Their current map has Biden with 278 votes in states likely to vote Democrat, and Trump with 168 votes leaning or likely Republican.

The map shows the way to 270 for Trump is hazardously narrow. There are 91 electoral votes marked as 'toss up'. He has to win EVERY toss-up state in addition to flipping a few states that are now leaning Democrat. To understand the electoral danger Trump is in, consider Florida's 28 electoral votes. Florida's 28 would push Biden to 307. In order to win, Trump would have to win remaining every toss-up state, as well as peel away 34 other votes.

Yet the current polling in Florida has Biden with over a +5 lead. Where is the trend that will swing the Sunshine State back to Trump? Don't expect coattails from Governor DeSantis, whose sinking popularity ratings are slightly north of 40%. With Labor Day, hurricane season and school re-openings in the pipeline, the trend lines would seem to be moving away from the President.

A Ron DeSantis apointee, Laurel Lee, is the current Florida Secretary of State. She looks a lot like Pam Bondi. Her husband is a member of the Republican State Senate. Florida vote tabulation will bear watching.

I got burned in 2016. I missed Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. AND I'm looking at the 2020 map 100 days out, in the most volatile period of the 21st Century. So why am I so pessimistic about Trump's chances? What is so different?

2016 Trump was an unknown. He base loved him, and there were enough doubts about Hillary Clinton (Wikileaks, cough, cough...) for Trump to squeak by in 3 key states. In 2020 Trump is a known, and to know him is not to love him. About 50% of electorate now says they would never vote for Trump, and less than 15% of voters are undecided at this point.

Without a miracle vaccine or treatment, Trump can only overcome the perception of incompetence in his Pandemic response by deflection. About the only thing he has left in his arsenal is The Other, played admirably by the foreign hordes in 2016. In 2020, the part of The Other is played by Americans. Portland, Seattle, Chicago...it feels like a slow-moving Reichstag Fire. It's a more difficult sell when you have MOMs and VETs protecting the protesters.

Can Rudy Giuliani produce an October Surprise? Donald Rumsfeld said "there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." So is there an unknown out there? Oh hell, probably.

[_honorentheos]

One through line on 2016 that would have yielded a pretty accurate electoral college prediction was to look at Democratic leaning states where Sanders beat Clinton fairly handily. It turns out primary voter behaviour can illuminate voter enthusiasm gaps that yield results like what we saw in Michigan where everyone assumed Clinton would win.

We don't have a good analog this year thanks to Covid and the Democratic Primaries going quickly to Biden once it became clear the race was between Sanders and everyone else. I think that leaves me a little uneasy even if it seems like Biden should win with room to spare. But the fact is once it became a two-way race it was clearly Biden's year. So maybe.

[_honorentheos]

Can Rudy Giuliani produce an October Surprise? Donald Rumsfeld said "there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." So is there an unknown out there? Oh hell, probably.

My 2020 Bingo card DOES have a square, second from left, bottom row, that says, "Shooting War between US and China". My understanding is the rules state if that comes up, the current card is a peal off sticker that we have to remove and everyone starts over with even crazier categories. So there's that.

[_Jersey Girl]

Biden chooses his VP. Two days before the election, Biden bites it.

Does the VP candidate replace him on the ballot?

[_Gunnar]

Biden chooses his VP. Two days before the election, Biden bites it.

Does the VP candidate replace him on the ballot?

Good question. If that's true, let's hope that the eventual Democratic VP candidate is a truly competent and viable candidate, and not merely a pathetic placeholder and cypher like Sarah Palin was to John McCain's presidential campaign. If you think Donald Trump is bad, can you imagine how much worse it would be if someone like Sarah Palin were president during a crisis like the current coronavirus pandemic?

[_Some Schmo]

If you think Donald Trump is bad, can you imagine how much worse it would be if someone like Sarah Palin were president during a crisis like the current coronavirus pandemic?

I'm not sure there's a difference. In fact, I'm not sure Palin would have been as stubborn about listening to the experts, or would have made wearing a mask a political issue.

In other words, it would be hard to do a worse job than Trump has done. I'm not sure Palin could have fu-cked up America's response to COVID so thoroughly.

[_Gunnar]

I'm not sure there's a difference. In fact, I'm not sure Palin would have been as stubborn about listening to the experts, or would have made wearing a mask a political issue.

In other words, it would be hard to do a worse job than Trump has done. I'm not sure Palin could have fu-cked up America's response to COVID so thoroughly.

You know what? You made me rethink my last response. I admit I find it very difficult to believe that anyone, including Palin could have botched the pandemic response worse than Trump. And I also agree that she probably would not quite as stubbornly have contradicted qualified medical authorities as Trump did. But I think she would have been even more incompetent than either Trump or Pence at organizing any kind of response, whether well thought out or not. Nevertheless, having someone like Sarah Palin at the helm could not possibly be a good thing.

[_Jersey Girl]

What if Trump loses but refuses to leave office? Here's the worst-case scenario

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... sibilities

[_ajax18]

If the Democrats would have known winning would be this easy perhaps they wouldn't have resorted to wrecking the economy with panic porn media and refrained from abolishing all semblance of law and order.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

XANAX! XANAX! XANAX!

- Doc

PS - Jersey Girl's link is worth the read if anyone is interested in the most likely shitshow to occur due to a close election