100 Days Out
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:16 am
Today I spent a little time at 270 to win. Their current map has Biden with 278 votes in states likely to vote Democrat, and Trump with 168 votes leaning or likely Republican.
The map shows the way to 270 for Trump is hazardously narrow. There are 91 electoral votes marked as 'toss up'. He has to win EVERY toss-up state in addition to flipping a few states that are now leaning Democrat. To understand the electoral danger Trump is in, consider Florida's 28 electoral votes. Florida's 28 would push Biden to 307. In order to win, Trump would have to win remaining every toss-up state, as well as peel away 34 other votes.
Yet the current polling in Florida has Biden with over a +5 lead. Where is the trend that will swing the Sunshine State back to Trump? Don't expect coattails from Governor DeSantis, whose sinking popularity ratings are slightly north of 40%. With Labor Day, hurricane season and school re-openings in the pipeline, the trend lines would seem to be moving away from the President.
A Ron DeSantis apointee, Laurel Lee, is the current Florida Secretary of State. She looks a lot like Pam Bondi. Her husband is a member of the Republican State Senate. Florida vote tabulation will bear watching.
I got burned in 2016. I missed Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. AND I'm looking at the 2020 map 100 days out, in the most volatile period of the 21st Century. So why am I so pessimistic about Trump's chances? What is so different?
2016 Trump was an unknown. He base loved him, and there were enough doubts about Hillary Clinton (Wikileaks, cough, cough...) for Trump to squeak by in 3 key states. In 2020 Trump is a known, and to know him is not to love him. About 50% of electorate now says they would never vote for Trump, and less than 15% of voters are undecided at this point.
Without a miracle vaccine or treatment, Trump can only overcome the perception of incompetence in his Pandemic response by deflection. About the only thing he has left in his arsenal is The Other, played admirably by the foreign hordes in 2016. In 2020, the part of The Other is played by Americans. Portland, Seattle, Chicago...it feels like a slow-moving Reichstag Fire. It's a more difficult sell when you have MOMs and VETs protecting the protesters.
Can Rudy Giuliani produce an October Surprise? Donald Rumsfeld said "there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." So is there an unknown out there? Oh hell, probably.
The map shows the way to 270 for Trump is hazardously narrow. There are 91 electoral votes marked as 'toss up'. He has to win EVERY toss-up state in addition to flipping a few states that are now leaning Democrat. To understand the electoral danger Trump is in, consider Florida's 28 electoral votes. Florida's 28 would push Biden to 307. In order to win, Trump would have to win remaining every toss-up state, as well as peel away 34 other votes.
Yet the current polling in Florida has Biden with over a +5 lead. Where is the trend that will swing the Sunshine State back to Trump? Don't expect coattails from Governor DeSantis, whose sinking popularity ratings are slightly north of 40%. With Labor Day, hurricane season and school re-openings in the pipeline, the trend lines would seem to be moving away from the President.
A Ron DeSantis apointee, Laurel Lee, is the current Florida Secretary of State. She looks a lot like Pam Bondi. Her husband is a member of the Republican State Senate. Florida vote tabulation will bear watching.
I got burned in 2016. I missed Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. AND I'm looking at the 2020 map 100 days out, in the most volatile period of the 21st Century. So why am I so pessimistic about Trump's chances? What is so different?
2016 Trump was an unknown. He base loved him, and there were enough doubts about Hillary Clinton (Wikileaks, cough, cough...) for Trump to squeak by in 3 key states. In 2020 Trump is a known, and to know him is not to love him. About 50% of electorate now says they would never vote for Trump, and less than 15% of voters are undecided at this point.
Without a miracle vaccine or treatment, Trump can only overcome the perception of incompetence in his Pandemic response by deflection. About the only thing he has left in his arsenal is The Other, played admirably by the foreign hordes in 2016. In 2020, the part of The Other is played by Americans. Portland, Seattle, Chicago...it feels like a slow-moving Reichstag Fire. It's a more difficult sell when you have MOMs and VETs protecting the protesters.
Can Rudy Giuliani produce an October Surprise? Donald Rumsfeld said "there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." So is there an unknown out there? Oh hell, probably.