DiscussMormonism.com

Physics Guy wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:12 am

A lot of people might just worry about climate change because it's trendy, but some of us actually understand the issues more deeply than that. For instance I'm a physics professor. I don't just have a PhD: I create them. And the sad truth about human-driven climate change is that it is indeed true. I was skeptical myself—in the early 1990s. Debate has been over for decades. Denialism is crap.

If someone makes a mistaken scientific criticism I'll try to straighten them out, but if people just rant about "the cult of Greta" or something then I just ignore them the way I'd ignore a loud drunk. That stuff can only sound clever if you have absolutely no grasp of the subject, and the irony of ignorance complaining that other people are ignorant was only cute the first time. By now it too is banal.

Read it and weep.

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:26 pm

From the link:

https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021 ... rature.pdf

That’s kind of the nail in the coffin for the anti-AGW crowd. It puts to rest that the notion the Sun is responsible for our global warming. One of the other pdfs shows how convection is responsible for drawing water into the atmosphere, so I do wonder if we’ll have a hotter and wetter climate in the long run? Or does the greenhouse effect negate the convection process?

- Doc

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:32 pm

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:26 pm

From the link:

https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021 ... rature.pdf

That’s kind of the nail in the coffin for the anti-AGW crowd. It puts to rest that the notion the Sun is responsible for our global warming. One of the other pdfs shows how convection is responsible for drawing water into the atmosphere, so I do wonder if we’ll have a hotter and wetter climate in the long run? Or does the greenhouse effect negate the convection process?

- Doc

The Sun issue was scientifically put to rest quite a while ago. For a while, the denier crowd hung their hat on various cycles, some real, some imagined. But as time passed and their constant prediction that cooling is just around the corner constantly failed, they mainly moved on.

There are two significant solar trends for climate change. The most significant over the next thousands of years is a cooling trend due to orbital cycles. The other is a slow warming trend over billions of years due to the brightening of the sun. Both of these trends, however, are completely swamped by the Human-caused increase in atmospheric green house gases.

On the average, the atmosphere will become warmer and wetter. But the distribution of temperature and precipitation will not be uniform. The increasing energy itself is predicted to result in more intense weather events. Changes in ocean and air currents will change how temperature and precipitation will be distributed. In general, everything gets more intense: drought, rain events, etc.

Events that have a complicated formation are less clear. Hurricanes are expected to be able to gain more wind energy from warmer surface water. But changes to air currents may change how often they form, where they form, and how often they strike land. I’m not sure anyone has a good handle on how tornados will be affected.