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VA says it cleaned up the process. I doubt anyone gives too much of a damn who wins this election. I sure as hell do not care. It will be very interesting to watch the media report on the process, since we will not likely ever know the actual process.

Trafalgar Group (R) ___________________________ Youngkin +2
FOX 5 DC/InsiderAdvantage*____________________ Youngkin +2
FOX News ___________________________________ Youngkin +8
Washington Post* _____________________________ McAuliffe +1
Emerson* ___________________________________________ Tie
USA Today/Suffolk* ___________________________ McAuliffe +1

Final garbage polls. If this is within 99 BPS of the Fox poll I will buy Some Schmo and Chap a Tomahawk Steak.

Taking predictions.

Election Prediction: McAuliffe wins after all the late-arriving mail-in ballots are counted later this week.
Media Prediction: Depends who wins. If their guy wins, the process worked. If their guy loses, the process sucked. And, we all know whose guy is who.

It's going to be a nail biter for sure. The good news is Virginia approved pre-processing so there is going to be a huge dump of results the second polls close at 7pm, expanded by the sheer number of early voters this year. So hopefully not as much waiting.

I'll go out on a limb and guess that the Fox +8 is an anomoly (as is the Washington Post +4 for McAuliffe) but who knows.

Downballot implications are pretty huge. Depending on that outcome it is possible that Democrats drop the house too, lots of cards stacked against them.

The other storyline is going to be the stupid amounts of money dropped there. $100+ million smackaroos between Youngkin and McAulifee and that is just since the last report out, there is like 2 more weeks that aren't accounted for yet.

Xenophon wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:59 pm

It's going to be a nail biter for sure. The good news is Virginia approved pre-processing so there is going to be a huge dump of results the second polls close at 7pm, expanded by the sheer number of early voters this year. So hopefully not as much waiting.

I'll go out on a limb and guess that the Fox +8 is an anomoly (as is the Washington Post +4 for McAuliffe) but who knows.

Downballot implications are pretty huge. Depending on that outcome it is possible that Democrats drop the house too, lots of cards stacked against them.

The other storyline is going to be the stupid amounts of money dropped there. $100+ million smackaroos between Youngkin and McAulifee and that is just since the last report out, there is like 2 more weeks that aren't accounted for yet.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7373.html

I have not seen the crosstabs for any of these polls. I bet they are fascinating though. Where is the Washington Post +4(D) poll?

Cultellus wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:03 pm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7373.html

I have not seen the crosstabs for any of these polls. I bet they are fascinating though. Where is the Washington Post +4(D) poll?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va ... race-poll/

+4 for Registered, +1 for Likely which is probably more sensible. I'm pretty skeptical of any poll that is far off the baseline, I'm too lazy to dig into these though to see if I can find the issue (maybe if it was my own state) . The +4 isn't the worse even if I find it odd but that +8 sticks out like a sore thumb just like the early +11 did for McAuliffe.

Xenophon wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:11 pm

Cultellus wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:03 pm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7373.html

I have not seen the crosstabs for any of these polls. I bet they are fascinating though. Where is the Washington Post +4(D) poll?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va ... race-poll/

+4 for Registered, +1 for Likely which is probably more sensible. I'm pretty skeptical of any poll that is far off the baseline, I'm too lazy to dig into these though to see if I can find the issue (maybe if it was my own state) . The +4 isn't the worse even if I find it odd but that +8 sticks out like a sore thumb just like the early +11 did for McAuliffe.

Polls as propaganda is something that intrigues the hell out of me. The FOX poll appears to be just that and the Washington Post is just that. And the spin tomorrow will be as ideological and biased as it ever was.

To some degree, I think there are still a lot of people that take them very seriously, put a lot of effort into their distribution in hopes of closely predicting the outcome.

That said you should never put too many eggs into any single poll, we've had enough history to not repeat that mistake. It is also harder for me as an outside observer as I've got no feel for the climate in Virginia itself, apart from the polls anyway.

One of the other narratives I'm seeing pop up is about turnout in relation to "The Big Lie". Lots of conservative voices believe that line cost them Senate seats in Georgia, I'm curious if that will continue if it turns out Youngkin doesn't bring it home or will we just flush it down the memory hole like so many other things...

Xenophon wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:26 pm

(edited)

One of the other narratives I'm seeing pop up is about turnout in relation to "The Big Lie". Lots of conservative voices believe that line cost them Senate seats in Georgia, I'm curious if that will continue if it turns out Youngkin doesn't bring it home or will we just flush it down the memory hole like so many other things...

A lot of things cost the GOP the senate seats in GA. None of those things are more relevant than having two jackass candidates. It will be interesting to see what happens when Herschel runs, right?

California had 17 million people vote in the 2020 President election, and less than 13 million voted in the recall election a year later. Call it the Big Lie, or call it the Shatshow, call it whatever. There is a credibility gap and many people are going to choose to opt out. I do not think the Big Lie is the sole issue. Credibility is the issue. A similar thing happened after Bush/Gore.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is very rare to be able to point to any one single thing as the break point in an election. Especially true with as tight as some of these races have been.

That said I'm not entirely sure how effective the strategy is of attacking the process and framing it as rigged to your base is. It only seems logical that hearing that from your party leader would suppress it even further than just standard "credibility" problems one might have.

Turnout is pretty much always lower when it is a non-Presidential election. All the more reason not to potentially limit your own sides engagement.

Xenophon wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:51 pm

Don't get me wrong, I think it is very rare to be able to point to any one single thing as the break point in an election. Especially true with as tight as some of these races have been.

That said I'm not entirely sure how effective the strategy is of attacking the process and framing it as rigged to your base is. It only seems logical that hearing that from your party leader would suppress it even further than just standard "credibility" problems one might have.

Turnout is pretty much always lower when it is a non-Presidential election. All the more reason not to potentially limit your own sides engagement.

This is a bigger conversation than just the VA 2021 election.

Not attacking the credibility issue could have been more detrimental than attacking it. Addressing credibility with lunatics and nutjobs is not good no matter what. (See Stelter, see Jeff Zucker, see Giuliani.) I give a lot more credit to the average Joe and average Jane than I do to the average political campaign. It matters a little bit what the pols and media say. It matters a lot what your neighbors say. I really could not give less of damn about what Trump or James Carville have to say, they are just peddling their wares. I care more about my friend who is walking on a picket line this week.

To put that in perspective - The so-called Big Lie becomes less of a lie when gasoline costs twice as much, rent doubles, there is a limit on how many boxes of diapers I can buy and a used truck costs more than it did last year. When real life is telling you it was all a crock of crap, it doesn't matter what Joy Reid thinks.

All that said, turnout and interest in politics and elections may go down, and it should.

Cultellus wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:17 pm

To put that in perspective - The so-called Big Lie becomes less of a lie when gasoline costs twice as much, rent doubles, there is a limit on how many boxes of diapers I can buy and a used truck costs more than it did last year. When real life is telling you it was all a crock of crap, it doesn't matter what Joy Reid thinks.

I can agree that the credibility of a vote outcome becomes less of an issue than in real life problems. Sometimes it is real pain and sometimes it is perceived pain but the pain points always come out.

I'm sure no matter what the result is there will be a thousand different reasons and maybe even more talked about or blamed. The one talked about least is that American politics always has this ebb and flow where the public seems to switch between support of varying leanings. Democrats have had several good elections, is it possible that the pendulum swing is just getting faster in our more partisan times?