Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Themis
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Themis »

Gadianton wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:44 pm
NATO is also a bluff. It's a similar kind of deterrence. If you strike us, we're forced by our doctrine to all unite and strike back, but nobody is actually forcing anyone to do anything.
The soviets always felt it was not a bluff, which keep a stalemate for many decades until the fall of the soviet union. I think since then there has been some promotion of the idea that NATO nations would not come to each others aid militarily. 911 showed this was wrong, but with Trump there was concern he would keep the US from going to the aid of an ally. Perhaps one of Putin's biggest disappointments was that he failed to get Trump back in power. NATO's response to Russian invasion of a non-Nato Ukraine has completely destroyed NATO as a bluff. Putin know full well now he will not be able to take over any Nato territory, and he is now facing a more unified Nato and Europe that is spending more on military which already far succeeds what they can produce. Even China will have to rethink what the consequences of invading Taiwan will be if they give them the same fight Ukraine is with Russia, and how much other nations may support Taiwan with weapons and sanctions.
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Moksha
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Jersey Girl wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:35 pm
Dr. Shades wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:00 pm

Umm, that doesn't refute my statement at all.
Well...it doesn't look like a refutation because it's not. Moksha added information that your own post lacked. See how that works? 8-)
Jersey Girl, thank you for that explanation on the information supplement.
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Father Francis
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Father Francis »

Gadianton wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:44 pm
How much of it is real, and how much is bluff? Lavrov's underplay of what their doctrine actually is amidst the Tucker Carlson's of Russia calling to nuke Poland, Putin's publicity stunt of putting his nuclear forces on high alert on international TV and then no intelligence backs up the threat, the doubling or tripling down of conventional forces, tell me it's bluff, and so yes, it's more complicated.

NATO is also a bluff. It's a similar kind of deterrence. If you strike us, we're forced by our doctrine to all unite and strike back, but nobody is actually forcing anyone to do anything.
We have yet to see what is a bluff and what is real. Putin is testing that, to the detriment of the reconstruction of his beloved Russian Empire. It also has come at a great cost to the lowly people of Russia that he doesn't actually care about.

A previous post questioned his thoughts on communism. He is no more or less a communist than Stalin or Mao. Neither were actual communists. Communism is used a smoke screen, a nationalistic opiate for the masses. They highlight the failures of Western capitalism and democracy to show how their authoritarian rule is better.

I think this much of this might be about Putin wishing his name to be mentioned alongside people like Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan and Tamerlane.
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MeDotOrg
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Father Francis wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:38 am
Communism is used a smoke screen, a nationalistic opiate for the masses.
I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. In both the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, Communism was the ideology that supplanted nationalism. It was after the breakup of the U.S.S.R. and Yugoslavia that nationalism began to exert itself.

I would say Mao was a Communist. Stalin much less so, but besides his paranoia there was an attempt at socialism. Putin is a transactional ideologue, meaning he will pay lip service to whatever ideology will keep him in power.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

MeDotOrg wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:24 am
Father Francis wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:38 am
Communism is used a smoke screen, a nationalistic opiate for the masses.
I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. In both the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, Communism was the ideology that supplanted nationalism. It was after the breakup of the U.S.S.R. and Yugoslavia that nationalism began to exert itself.

I would say Mao was a Communist. Stalin much less so, but besides his paranoia there was an attempt at socialism. Putin is a transactional ideologue, meaning he will pay lip service to whatever ideology will keep him in power.
This post makes a lot of sense to me -- especially the part I emphasized. This is why he has so much contempt for democracy. In a real democracy, it is harder for an autocrat to retain power after once attaining it. Donald Trump hates democracy as much as Putin does for the same reason.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Jersey Girl »

Is this man right? Did we fail to seize the moment? Could we have done the deal on the Mig-29's beforehand and avoided the accusation of NATO interference while Russia was building up forces around Ukraine? Should we have??

Have we failed Ukraine???? (Bold mine)
That's why he faults President Joe Biden, who released so much accurate intelligence about Putin's intention before the war, for not acting on it by preemptively providing more military aid.

"If you knew they were going to attack Ukraine, why didn't you give them everything they needed ahead of time?" Popadiuk says. "We needed to get ahead of him."

The bravery of Ukraine's soldiers and ineptness of his own appear to have caught Putin by surprise. So has the unity that Biden and his European counterparts have maintained.

But Popadiuk says the allied response remains too constrained by fear of nuclear escalation. NATO hasn't transferred old Soviet fighter jets to Ukraine, for example, to avoid the possibility of Russia attacking the transfer and compelling a NATO response.
"We've let Putin define the rules of the game," he explains, rather than making the risk of a catastrophic exchange the Russian leader's burden.
More at the link:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/10/politics ... index.html
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Moksha »

Watching news reports, it seems that Trumpers would welcome Putin's invasion of America. Traitors following their head Traitor. Just know that when they speak of patriotism, it is an election ploy. Republican supporters will follow anything that is conniving and full of puffery.
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Chap
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Chap »

On the question of the risk of a nuclear exchange, the following letter published in the UK scientific magazine New Scientist may have a calming effect.


Russia's nuclear threats just don't ring true
Published 30 March 2022

From Florence Gaub, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris, France

The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) describes itself as:
the [European] Union’s Agency analysing foreign, security and defence policy issues. Its core mission is to assist the EU and its member states in the implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) as well as other external action of the Union
.

A view from that source carries some weight.
Further to your report on concerns over Russia’s nuclear weapons status, the “special regime of combat duty” that the country has elevated its nuclear readiness to is meaningless (5 March, p 7). It isn’t an official category in Russia’s nuclear level classification, meaning it was created to cause upset more than anything else.

The idea that it is now at level 2 of 4 is simply unfounded and is Russian propaganda. This is confirmed further by the fact that Russia hasn’t actually increased anything when it comes to nuclear weapons, i.e. it hasn’t loaded missiles, increased activity, etc.

More importantly, anyone who puts the odds of a nuclear strike at 20 per cent is wrong. Probabilities can’t be established in the absence of data. We have an extremely small sample of nuclear strikes and not enough data to understand why and when nuclear weapons would be used. This doesn’t mean the probability is zero, it just means we can’t make a statement of this kind.

The US elevated its nuclear level (its actual nuclear level, not some made-up level for public consumption) several times in non-nuclear crises, such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the first Gulf war and the Yom Kippur war. Again, this doesn’t mean it is harmless, but it does show that this isn’t extremely unusual.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Jersey Girl »

Moksha wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:19 am
Jersey Girl wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:35 pm


Well...it doesn't look like a refutation because it's not. Moksha added information that your own post lacked. See how that works? 8-)
Jersey Girl, thank you for that explanation on the information supplement.
Sure thing!
We only get stronger when we are lifting something that is heavier than what we are used to. ~ KF

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Jersey Girl »

Question for the teeming masses.

Why aren't WE holding up our end of the Budapest Memorandum?
We only get stronger when we are lifting something that is heavier than what we are used to. ~ KF

Slava Ukraini!
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