Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Res Ipsa »

Xenophon wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:46 am
K Graham wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:31 am
Agreed. But here's the thing. Russia is a Nuclear power. There is no possibility of intervening militarily without starting WWIII and Biden has said from the beginning that military intervention was off the table. And thank God for that. Of course, if Trump were President the whole thing would be spun and turned into a non-issue, and we know this because he's already told us what he thinks about Putin's invasion.
I guess it just leaves me questioning what can even be done then. Sanctions are effectively a joke at this point, if military might can't be brought to bear what is an effective middle ground? Do we just cede everything until we get fed up?
I really don't know much about the effect of sanctions on Russia. Can Russia's economy afford a war? Can the rest of the world cripple it economically?

I'm not convinced that taking military action, as part of a broad coalition of nations, would automatically lead to WW III or a nuclear free for all. But the body that should be available to approve such action is crippled by the Security Council veto. Reforming the ability of an invading country to veto action against it through the UN is something that a hard look should be taken at.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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I found Trump's salute to Putin's invasion to be most disconcerting in a traitorous sort of way.
Last edited by Moksha on Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:55 am
Xenophon wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:46 am
I guess it just leaves me questioning what can even be done then. Sanctions are effectively a joke at this point, if military might can't be brought to bear what is an effective middle ground? Do we just cede everything until we get fed up?
I really don't know much about the effect of sanctions on Russia. Can Russia's economy afford a war? Can the rest of the world cripple it economically?

I'm not convinced that taking military action, as part of a broad coalition of nations, would automatically lead to WW III or a nuclear free for all. But the body that should be available to approve such action is crippled by the Security Council veto. Reforming the ability of an invading country to veto action against it through the UN is something that a hard look should be taken at.
Obviously I claim no more special insight than what I glean form news sources but it seemed like Russia understood what economic brunt would be brought against them and they pressed ahead anyway. Either that makes them incredibly foolish or they understand the economic chess and made a calculated risk. I agree that the WW3 talk is probably a bit hyperbole, Russia doesn't do well in a nuclear winter either, apologies if my posts made it seem that way. Regardless it would be our first direct conflict with another superpower in a hot minute and I think any presumption I would make about that impact would be foolhardy, at best.

We're in full agreement that the UN's current governance rules are obviously inadequate for the current political climate. I'd be curious how much backlash there would be from any change to that as well though.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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From Politico:
Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy,” praising his onetime counterpart for a move that has spurred sanctions and universal condemnation from the U.S. government and its trans-Atlantic allies.

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview with “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.” “He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”
So sayeth the Great Champion of Democracy. I get the feeling Trump would have given Hitler a thumbs up for invading the Sudetenland, the Germanic part of Czechoslovakia.

Sedition? Giving aid and comfort to the enemy? Maybe he should change his name to Lord Haw-Haw.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Putin knows that the UN won't do anything to a nation with nuclear weapons. He's calling the world's bluff, and on this he's going to win.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea
Funny you should mention that. A friend of mine from my college days built a successful business and once it got going well enough; I guess he was bored with life and so he up and moved to Ukraine. So, I've been bugging him the last couple of weeks about what's going on there, just texts, and he's consistently said that he sees no chance of war coming to Kyiv and appears unfazed. He says it's mostly Putin drawing attention to himself, but the one item he mentioned of material credibility would be the water issue you speak of. Of course, this could all be denial, like standing on the beach as the tidal wave approaches, but that's what he says.

I've been binge watching youtube videos on the subject and the fascinating thing is that there really appears to be no material justification for what he's doing. His explanations make no sense, the explanations of Russian commentators who toe the line make no sense. You'd think they were all Canadian QAnon truckers given their logic. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine becoming a nuclear threat, lies about genocide against the resistance on those border towns, a desire to protect a couple of nothing places that he couldn't possibly care about; the great (false) history of the Soviet invention of Ukraine.

To me, there are two options. Option 1) is the water issue and/or securing a little more territory. Under this option, he's creating a huge spectacle to push the West to see what they are really prepared to do, what can he get away with? This will inform future operations as he keeps pressure on low and slow. Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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drumdude wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:05 am
Putin knows that the UN won't do anything to a nation with nuclear weapons. He's calling the world's bluff, and on this he's going to win.
I don't think there's any bluff to call in terms of the UN. Russia has a permanent seat on the security council, and a permanent veto over any proposed peacekeeping action.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Gadianton wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am
Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea
Funny you should mention that. A friend of mine from my college days built a successful business and once it got going well enough; I guess he was bored with life and so he up and moved to Ukraine. So, I've been bugging him the last couple of weeks about what's going on there, just texts, and he's consistently said that he sees no chance of war coming to Kyiv and appears unfazed. He says it's mostly Putin drawing attention to himself, but the one item he mentioned of material credibility would be the water issue you speak of. Of course, this could all be denial, like standing on the beach as the tidal wave approaches, but that's what he says.

I've been binge watching youtube videos on the subject and the fascinating thing is that there really appears to be no material justification for what he's doing. His explanations make no sense, the explanations of Russian commentators who toe the line make no sense. You'd think they were all Canadian QAnon truckers given their logic. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine becoming a nuclear threat, lies about genocide against the resistance on those border towns, a desire to protect a couple of nothing places that he couldn't possibly care about; the great (false) history of the Soviet invention of Ukraine.

To me, there are two options. Option 1) is the water issue and/or securing a little more territory. Under this option, he's creating a huge spectacle to push the West to see what they are really prepared to do, what can he get away with? This will inform future operations as he keeps pressure on low and slow. Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.
Interesting. You've dug into the nitty gritty much more than I have. It looks like the kind of pretext Germany used in the run up to WWII.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Gadianton wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am
Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea
Funny you should mention that. A friend of mine from my college days built a successful business and once it got going well enough; I guess he was bored with life and so he up and moved to Ukraine. So, I've been bugging him the last couple of weeks about what's going on there, just texts, and he's consistently said that he sees no chance of war coming to Kyiv and appears unfazed. He says it's mostly Putin drawing attention to himself, but the one item he mentioned of material credibility would be the water issue you speak of. Of course, this could all be denial, like standing on the beach as the tidal wave approaches, but that's what he says.

I've been binge watching youtube videos on the subject and the fascinating thing is that there really appears to be no material justification for what he's doing. His explanations make no sense, the explanations of Russian commentators who toe the line make no sense. You'd think they were all Canadian QAnon truckers given their logic. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine becoming a nuclear threat, lies about genocide against the resistance on those border towns, a desire to protect a couple of nothing places that he couldn't possibly care about; the great (false) history of the Soviet invention of Ukraine.

To me, there are two options. Option 1) is the water issue and/or securing a little more territory. Under this option, he's creating a huge spectacle to push the West to see what they are really prepared to do, what can he get away with? This will inform future operations as he keeps pressure on low and slow. Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.
If Biden tweets nicely, this will end without incident. I am surprised this is happening at all given how nice Biden has been tweeting so far.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Gadianton wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am
Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.

I’m going with misplaced and puerile pride being a major driving factor.
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