Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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MeDotOrg
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by MeDotOrg »

Gunnar wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:50 pm
Jake Broe has an interesting take on the most likely ending to Putin's "special military operation." According to him, "Ukraine will not win this war militarily (there is a better way)."
Russia is concealing the true size of their mobilization and it is more likely 1.2 million Russian men are being sent to Ukraine to fight. If this happens, it will be very difficult for the Ukrainian military to push them all out. What is far more likely to happen is an economic collapse and political revolution in Russia that leads to the withdrawal of the Russian military.
After analyzing charts showing current trends like inflation rates, interest rates, demographics etc., he suggests 4 likely possibilities for how the Ukraine fiasco might end.

1) FSB removes Putin and takes control.

2) Military removes Putin and takes control.

3) Protesters reach critical mass.

4) Russia breaks up (War lords take control).

See the video further breaking down how each of these scenarios will progress. Each of the above scenarios, according to him, will result in all Russian troops being removed from Ukraine and restoring Ukraine's 2014 borders, at least, and perhaps restoring even Crimea to Ukraine's control.
The Russian Military's logistical infrastructure is incapable of supporting the Army they currently have in the field. Adding a few hundred thousand more men will only exacerbate the problem. I think mutinies are a distinct possibility.

The big question is how effective Putin will be in conflating his own survival with the survival of Russia. I would imagine that every intelligence service in the West is communicating with Russian Oligarchs and whatever Russian military back channels they have to ensure that the survival of Russia is best insured by decoupling the survival of Putin with the survival of the country.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Jersey Girl wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 2:36 am
Ukrainian commander says 'enemy' broke into steel plant during battles

It's 2022. Why are we having 'battles' to start with? Use your freaking words for god sakes.
Which words do you feel would be superior to the ones used?
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Dr. Shades wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:59 am
Jersey Girl wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 2:36 am
Ukrainian commander says 'enemy' broke into steel plant during battles

It's 2022. Why are we having 'battles' to start with? Use your freaking words for god sakes.
Which words do you feel would be superior to the ones used?
Words that lead to resolution and not battles.
We only get stronger when we are lifting something that is heavier than what we are used to. ~ KF

Slava Ukraini!
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Jersey Girl wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:02 am
Words that lead to resolution and not battles.
Would Putin have listened to them?
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Moksha »

Dr. Shades wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:59 am
Which words do you feel would be superior to the ones used?
"We will crush you! Your grandchildren will live under Putin/Trumpism!!!"*




*Just because Nikita Khrushchev said something similar does not mean that Putin and Trump could not issue a joint statement. I mean, it sounds unhinged and dictator-types like that sort of thing.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

Dr Exiled wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:49 pm
Do we know how other political leaders in Russia think? Is Putin an outlier or does he share the same opinions as the other politicians? Also, seems like Putin is pretty quick to jail rivals so, how likely is a political coup there when the opposition is in jail? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62092196
I think it still has to be admitted that the Ukraine catastrophe is not going to be resolved by military means alone. Putin still has to go by one means or another. While it is true that he has been largely successful in jailing and/or assassinating his rivals, so far, the protests against the war and conscription by Russians are only growing in number and size, according to most reports, despite police crackdowns. I would be surprised if there were not growing sympathy for the protests even amongst the police tasked with putting down the protests. The pressure to remove Putin or somehow force him to step down is going to continue to grow as long as he continues to push his "special military operation." Widespread disgruntlement and mutiny by his troops is also going to grow. Growing numbers of them are deserting and even turning against their own commanders, Certainly Putin disapproves of how his military has been performing, and I'm sure that disapproval and dissatisfaction goes between them in both directions. How long can Putin continue to fire his highest ranking and presumably most competent commanders without getting some serious pushback from his military?
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

Russian Soldiers Keep Surrendering for Cash and Socks
Russian soldiers recently mobilized keep surrendering in Ukraine. The Russian forces keep losing ground both on the Kharkiv and the Kherson fronts. OPEC also announced a reduction in output as global energy demand continues to fall.
It's both hilarious and encouraging how Putin's desperate conscription of hundreds of thousands of Russian recruits to reinforce his invading forces in Ukraine seems to be backfiring on him. Apparently, many of these conscripts have so little enthusiasm for Putin's "special military operation" that once they get to Ukraine, they only look forward to surrendering themselves and their equipment at the first available opportunity to Ukrainian forces for cash and guaranteed pardons and Ukrainian citizenship.

Plus, the new Russian recruits are shown how to wrap their feet in cloth because the Russian military doesn't even have enough socks for all of them.

Near the end of this video is the reaction of a Ukrainian defender's dog when he returned home temporarily on leave after months of absence serving on the front lines. It's very touching and heartwarming!
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Physics Guy »

I remember being taught that the whole Soviet military had always used foot cloths instead of socks. No-one said why.

Did they prefer foot cloths? Were they unable to mass-produce socks? Both possibilities seemed about equally implausible.

A riddle wrapped in a foot cloth inside a boot.
I was a teenager before it was cool.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Morley »

Gunnar wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:55 pm
Plus, the new Russian recruits are shown how to wrap their feet in cloth because the Russian military doesn't even have enough socks for all of them.
I think it's only been the in last decade that the Russian military has moved away from traditional foot wraps to socks. I don't know, but this may have something to do with a whole tough-guy military culture type of thing.

Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:29 am
A riddle wrapped in a foot cloth inside a boot.
Excellent.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:29 am
I remember being taught that the whole Soviet military had always used foot cloths instead of socks. No-one said why.

Did they prefer foot cloths? Were they unable to mass-produce socks? Both possibilities seemed about equally implausible.

A riddle wrapped in a foot cloth inside a boot.
That's interesting! I had never heard of that before, so it didn't occur to me that that might have been only a normal practice for Soviet or Russian military, not just another example of Russian logistical mismanagement.
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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