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Xenophon wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:46 am

K Graham wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:31 am

Agreed. But here's the thing. Russia is a Nuclear power. There is no possibility of intervening militarily without starting WWIII and Biden has said from the beginning that military intervention was off the table. And thank God for that. Of course, if Trump were President the whole thing would be spun and turned into a non-issue, and we know this because he's already told us what he thinks about Putin's invasion.

I guess it just leaves me questioning what can even be done then. Sanctions are effectively a joke at this point, if military might can't be brought to bear what is an effective middle ground? Do we just cede everything until we get fed up?

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:55 am

Xenophon wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:46 am

I guess it just leaves me questioning what can even be done then. Sanctions are effectively a joke at this point, if military might can't be brought to bear what is an effective middle ground? Do we just cede everything until we get fed up?

I really don't know much about the effect of sanctions on Russia. Can Russia's economy afford a war? Can the rest of the world cripple it economically?

I'm not convinced that taking military action, as part of a broad coalition of nations, would automatically lead to WW III or a nuclear free for all. But the body that should be available to approve such action is crippled by the Security Council veto. Reforming the ability of an invading country to veto action against it through the UN is something that a hard look should be taken at.

Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy,” praising his onetime counterpart for a move that has spurred sanctions and universal condemnation from the U.S. government and its trans-Atlantic allies.

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview with “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.” “He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”

Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea

drumdude wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:05 am

Putin knows that the UN won't do anything to a nation with nuclear weapons. He's calling the world's bluff, and on this he's going to win.

Gadianton wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am

Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea

Funny you should mention that. A friend of mine from my college days built a successful business and once it got going well enough; I guess he was bored with life and so he up and moved to Ukraine. So, I've been bugging him the last couple of weeks about what's going on there, just texts, and he's consistently said that he sees no chance of war coming to Kyiv and appears unfazed. He says it's mostly Putin drawing attention to himself, but the one item he mentioned of material credibility would be the water issue you speak of. Of course, this could all be denial, like standing on the beach as the tidal wave approaches, but that's what he says.

I've been binge watching youtube videos on the subject and the fascinating thing is that there really appears to be no material justification for what he's doing. His explanations make no sense, the explanations of Russian commentators who toe the line make no sense. You'd think they were all Canadian QAnon truckers given their logic. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine becoming a nuclear threat, lies about genocide against the resistance on those border towns, a desire to protect a couple of nothing places that he couldn't possibly care about; the great (false) history of the Soviet invention of Ukraine.

To me, there are two options. Option 1) is the water issue and/or securing a little more territory. Under this option, he's creating a huge spectacle to push the West to see what they are really prepared to do, what can he get away with? This will inform future operations as he keeps pressure on low and slow. Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.

Gadianton wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am

Res wrote: One interest piece I read lately talks about water. Apparently, the Crimea depends for water on sources in the Ukraine and the Ukranian government hasn't been falling all over itself getting water to the Crimea

Funny you should mention that. A friend of mine from my college days built a successful business and once it got going well enough; I guess he was bored with life and so he up and moved to Ukraine. So, I've been bugging him the last couple of weeks about what's going on there, just texts, and he's consistently said that he sees no chance of war coming to Kyiv and appears unfazed. He says it's mostly Putin drawing attention to himself, but the one item he mentioned of material credibility would be the water issue you speak of. Of course, this could all be denial, like standing on the beach as the tidal wave approaches, but that's what he says.

I've been binge watching youtube videos on the subject and the fascinating thing is that there really appears to be no material justification for what he's doing. His explanations make no sense, the explanations of Russian commentators who toe the line make no sense. You'd think they were all Canadian QAnon truckers given their logic. Conspiracy theories about Ukraine becoming a nuclear threat, lies about genocide against the resistance on those border towns, a desire to protect a couple of nothing places that he couldn't possibly care about; the great (false) history of the Soviet invention of Ukraine.

To me, there are two options. Option 1) is the water issue and/or securing a little more territory. Under this option, he's creating a huge spectacle to push the West to see what they are really prepared to do, what can he get away with? This will inform future operations as he keeps pressure on low and slow. Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.

Gadianton wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:22 am

Option 2) he's really lost it. He's He's gained so much power and wealth, there is nothing left but go all in and put his name up there in history with Lenin, and at his age, time is running out to MRGA.