Inflation be Damned

[K Graham]

Bipartisan push to ban all Russian oil is going to cause gasoline prices to skyrockets well above what it should simply because that's how the markets respond to wars. They know this, but said it is worth the risk of higher inflation because, well, "this is war."

Republicans are likely loving this because $5.00 gallon of gasoline will always be blamed on Biden no matter what, and it will hurt Democrats in the midterm elections. Democrats tend to have more integrity so they're going to do what's right instead of worrying strictly about their own political careers. That's ballsy AF.

Democrats And Republicans Are Willing To Risk Higher Inflation To Punish Russia

I've already shifted my portfolio and invested in ETFs UCO and OXY which have been skyrocketing the past month.

[Res Ipsa]

It won't just be oil. It will be food. Both Ukraine and Russia grow substantial amounts of wheat. Take a look at wheat and corn futures. They were kind of crazy early this morning. The Pandemic is still affecting supply chains, and cutting off exports from Russia will make that situation worse. Still better than global thermo nuclear war.

ETA: Wheat Futures at 14-year High

[K Graham]

They're also talking about cutting off the internet which is something that should've happened years ago when it became obvious Russia was providing a safe haven for cyber attackers who are robbing corporations for billions as well as attacking our infrastructure.

HFS.

And FOX is still saying "no one has been tougher on Russia than Trump!"

[Dr. Shades]

I've already shifted my portfolio and invested in ETFs UCO and OXY which have been skyrocketing the past month.

I'm not anywhere near as stock-savvy as you are, so would you mind spelling out what "ETFs UCO and OXY" mean?

[Jersey Girl]

I've already shifted my portfolio and invested in ETFs UCO and OXY which have been skyrocketing the past month.

I don't think I'm against cutting off Russian oil. Hypothetically speaking, if someone owned stocks in a couple of major oil companies, what would happen to the value of those stocks? Plummet or skyrocket?

Asking for a friend.

[Gadianton]

It depends, Jersey. The obvious point is that removing competition should drive the stock price of the companies left in the game upward.

However, you also have to consider expectations. The price of oil surged today, and so did the price of oil stocks while most of the market took a hit. Part of that is probably investors anticipating the possibility that we may cut off Russian oil. Investors are already driving oil prices up in proportion to the odds that they think Russian oil will get cut off. By the time the announcement is made, the price will have attempted to incorporate the value of that information and it's too late to benefit.

One of the problems with a market with the epic volatility that we've had in the last couple of years is that stocks will often massively overshoot when the news is good. Maybe oil stocks have another 15% to go over the next week, but then, on second consideration, they may drop 25% the week after. If you were already holding oil stocks prior to the war, then you're sitting back and enjoying the ride. But to get in now is a bit of a gamble. I'd say most likely, even if prices spike on this news and then drop substantially below your buy-in point in the near term, if you close your eyes and hold oil stocks have room to go -- but I'd never want to advise anybody on what stocks to buy. I'll save that for my right-wing friend; like his political views, he can't shut his mouth about his stocks and he's getting his ass handed to him. Oil isn't my fave, but Ajax should be happy as I still have a decent position in Texas oil.

[Jersey Girl]

It depends, Jersey. The obvious point is that removing competition should drive the stock price of the companies left in the game upward.

However, you also have to consider expectations. The price of oil surged today, and so did the price of oil stocks while most of the market took a hit. Part of that is probably investors anticipating the possibility that we may cut off Russian oil. Investors are already driving oil prices up in proportion to the odds that they think Russian oil will get cut off. By the time the announcement is made, the price will have attempted to incorporate the value of that information and it's too late to benefit.

One of the problems with a market with the epic volatility that we've had in the last couple of years is that stocks will often massively overshoot when the news is good. Maybe oil stocks have another 15% to go over the next week, but then, on second consideration, they may drop 25% the week after. If you were already holding oil stocks prior to the war, then you're sitting back and enjoying the ride. But to get in now is a bit of a gamble. I'd say most likely, even if prices spike on this news and then drop substantially below your buy-in point in the near term, if you close your eyes and hold oil stocks have room to go -- but I'd never want to advise anybody on what stocks to buy. I'll save that for my right-wing friend; like his political views, he can't shut his mouth about his stocks and he's getting his ass handed to him. Oil isn't my fave, but Ajax should be happy as I still have a decent position in Texas oil.

Thanks Gad! No worries about getting in now.

[canpakes]

I've already shifted my portfolio and invested in ETFs UCO and OXY which have been skyrocketing the past month.

I'm not anywhere near as stock-savvy as you are, so would you mind spelling out what "ETFs UCO and OXY" mean?

The first is an ‘exchange traded fund’ -

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/uco

The second is the stock symbol for Occidental Petroleum -

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/oxy

[ajax18]

How much did you any of you invest in green energy alternatives to fossil fuels?

[K Graham]

How much did you any of you invest in green energy alternatives to fossil fuels?

This is one of the reasons I decided to retire early. Maybe you should try being smart instead of burying your head in Right Wing propaganda. I bought UCO at $14 when it tanked during Trump's catastrophic handling of the pandemic. It is now almost $180. I turned $10,000 into over $120,000. When the market turns, I'll sell all of my stock in UCO and begin shorting the market with SCO.

The writing was on the wall back in 2008 when gasoline avg was more than $5.25 (2022 dollars) per gallon after the economic recession caused by years of deregulations by Republicans. Of course FOX never once blamed Bush but that should've been a wake up call to all of us that we cannot depend on oil forever. I remember getting excited as all get out about the prospect of owning an electric car, and I remember all Republicans wanted to do was mock the concept and whine about failed projects like Solyndra. Back when Obama was President, Neil Cavuto used to go on long winded rants making fun of the idea of plugging in a car.

Whenever a tragedy happened, Right Wingers were there to put blame on clean energy. Like when Texas thought it would be cool to go anti-Federal Government and have its own electric grid that would be operated by free market principles. It crashed because they took cost cutting measures that never prepared for worst case scenarios, like winterizing the grid. So when record low temps hit and millions are without power, Republican Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz flees to Mexico whole FOX News blames the grid collapse on windmills. Score one for socialism!

Then Trump attacked windmills by making up a falsehood about how they cause cancer.

At every turn, Republicans and their "Conservative-keep everything the way it is because we hate change like rednecks do" mentality have been on the wrong side of history. I give it another decade when EVs take over the market completely and the price of gas drops below a dollar because no one wants gas anymore and Republicans spin it in a way to take credit. They'll tell you they were the ones who made the Green energy revolution happen.

Back in 2009 a buddy of mine used to argue with me that high gas prices were Obama's fault because he once made a comment about how skyrocketing gas prices would be a good thing in the long term because it would create a revolution towards Green Energy. Lo and Behold, we're seeing that play out just as he said. High gas prices is the driving factor in high demand for affordable EVs.

Frankly I have no idea why anyone would buy a combustible engine anymore. My daughter's $50k Model 3 Tesla is safer than a $100,000 Mercedes and faster than a $200,000 Porsche. And it costs maybe $5 to charge it from 5% to 100%.